Race of the Day

Race of the Day – 23 March 2018

Race of the Day - 19:45 Kempton

The Horses For Courses report is the report that is available to all registered users on a Friday, and it shows what an excellent record Believe It has when racing at Kemtpon. From eight races here, he has won and been placed five times (62.50%) for level stakes profits of 37.25 and 43.81 respectively.

He races in a one-mile handicap today and I will be hoping he gets back into some kind of form.

The most recent form of Believe It has been poor, with just a second-placed effort to show from his last six races.

His overall record on the all-weather courses is still extremely positive, however, and we have seen above how he appears to relish racing at this track.

His record racing over today's trip of a mile is also a positive, where he is 4/11 (36.36%) for 25.25 points.

Trainer Richard Hughes has a decent record here at Lingfield over the past year. He has managed 11 winners (17.74%) and 21 places (33.87%) from 62 runners, for level stakes profits of 11.44 and 3.54 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.77.

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Nicola Currie is still able to claim five pounds and she has been riding plenty of winners recently. Over the past couple of weeks, she's had six winners (23.08%) and 11 places (42.31%) from 26 runners, for level stakes profits of 47.00 and 53.50 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.95.

She also has a positive record here at Kempton and is 7/52 (13.46%) over the last year for 11.33 points and an Impact Value of 1.34.

Believe It looks nicely suited to today's conditions when looking at the Instant Expert report, with two sections of green and three of amber. He is still four pounds higher than for his last victory but I am hoping that a return to favourable conditions and the drop in class will help.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, but all four pace sections are covered by less than 4%, so it is certainly not much of a bias and wouldn't have too much of an effect when judging the race for me.

Believe It is not always that quickly away from the stalls but has a reasonable draw in stall five and I am hoping that he breaks well enough for Currie to put him in a position where he is able to challenge when things get going. At a current price of around 16/1, I think he's overpriced if giving anything like his best.

Click here for the 19:45 at Kempton.

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2 replies
  1. Everyone calls me Paul says:

    Cheers Steven, great pick.
    Good news; matched at 25.0 on Matchbook (zero comm.)
    Bad news; I’m only playing you for a quid!
    Worth a stake upgrade, I reckon.
    Paul

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