Race of the Day – 25 July

Race of the Day - 20:10 Wolverhampton

This is a wide open 0-85 handicap on the all weather track at Wolverhampton being run over just under nine furlongs.

The first thing that stands out to me when looking at the racecard is the huge disparity on the Speed Ratings. Ravenhoe is the highest rated on 93, with Burano the lowest rated on a lowly 30, and they are both around the same price to back.

Another thing of note from the racecard is that Vastly is going for a four timer, therefore it can be assumed that although it is likely he has risen up the weights a fair bit, he is clearly in good form and on a bit of a roll.

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The Instant Expert tab doesn't have any one particular horse that really stands out. Interestingly though, the outsider of the field at around 25/1 is St Patrick's Day, and he shows up quite well here. He has a good record on this surface, as well as over the course and distance and is only three pounds higher than his last winning mark.

Pivotman also shows up reasonably well and is actually four pounds lower than his last winning mark and can be backed at 12's.

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The pace tab is pretty inconclusive but when looking at the Draw / Run Style Combinations it shows us that horses drawn high and right up with the pace have a very good record here. Over a large data set horses that fit this criteria have returned a win P/L of £165.83 to level stakes. Ravenhoe and Dark Ocean appear to be the likely leaders and are drawn six and seven out of ten, so at the higher end.

All other draw / run style combinations have a negative win and place P/L, so I think this is definitely something to bear in mind.

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Another interesting snippet that I came across was when looking at the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats page. Mick Easterby and Graham Gibbons have an excellent record here over the past year with almost a quarter of their rides together winning, and two thirds gaining a place. They team up with just the one horse here today, and that is Pivotman.

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1 reply
  1. Matt Bisogno says:

    Excellent stuff. I also notice on the draw/pace table, that the IV (impact values) of all prominent racers, regardless of draw, are above 1.00, meaning they fare better than expectations. As a rule, over this course and distance, I wouldn’t want to be on a horse with a late-running style…

    Matt

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