Race of the Day

Race of the Day, 25th May 2018

Another video Race of the Day today. As I say, this is NOT a daily thing, but I'm happy to post something - either text/image or video - when I have the time. This was a race I was keen to look at anyway. See what you think...

Matt


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28 replies
  1. Chris Worrall says:

    I backed Alsvinder last night, so based on my current form : that would be a red too! 😀

    Reply
      • Blokeshead says:

        He just wants another holiday, Matt! 😉

        (He’d be welcome over here in Sweden. 25-30 degrees most days this month, still no sign of rain in the 10-day forecast. They most certainly wouldn’t be running on “good to soft” over here – it’s been hotter than Greece for the past fortnight!)

        Reply
  2. oscarbriso says:

    Good video Matt. Thanks a lot for that. I have a question. Would you consider the jockey weight allowence when you use the rating difference on the instant expert report? For instance Foxtrot Knights Jockey has a 5 pounds allowence which may help her win.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I only consider jockey allowances in the context of whether I view the rider to be ‘good value’ for that allowance. In other words, would I still be happy to make the bet if that jockey was NOT in receipt of an allowance. If I wouldn’t, the 7/5/3lb is normally neither here nor there. But the talented apprentices/conditionals are not too far behind more experienced riders and are well worth their claim. Jane Elliott is one of a number of very promising apprentices, and I consider her five pounds claim to be a bonus.

      In summary, generally I’m a lot more interested in the ability of the jockey than the size of the allowance/claim.

      Hope that helps,
      Matt

      Reply
  3. N17 says:

    Hello Matt. Just caught up with this and watched your video which was most interesting. Also, spooky as I’ve been working on a similar spreadsheet over the last couple of weeks with the colour codings. Your spreadsheet is more detailed than my efforts but at least I’m on the same wave length.

    I’ve had mixed results so far. On Wednesday I analysed 5 races but didn’t highlight a winner but did pick Strictly Art who was 2nd at 25/1 at Yarmouth. On Thursday I did manage 3 winners from 7 races – Oeil De Tigre 2/1, Hollywood Road 11/2 and Magic Circle 11/2. All the races were handicaps except for Magic Circle in the Group 3 at Sandown.

    Keep up the good work.

    Nigel

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Good work Nigel – very early days for your approach, and I hope it pays dividends. The reason I am focusing on sprint races is that it generally offers some sort of pace and/or draw bias – more strongly so than many/most races at longer trips – and that is a pretty good way of whittling a field before considering things like actual horse form. Just my take. When I have more of the study work automated, I’ll be able to look at more races. The next obvious step would be seven furlong races, which I like because of the intermediate nature of the distance (failed milers and sprinters collide!)

      Matt

      Reply
  4. kemal says:

    Fascinating stuff Matt. I came to the same conclusion..Foxtrot Knight…and also Bosham..pretty confident one of them will win. Just as an aside what do you think of Bet 365’s new each way extra bets where you can sometimes get the first ten places!

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Kemal. I don’t share your confidence about FK, but looks a reasonable play at the price in a tricky race.

      Re 365’s each way extra, I don’t think betting each way when you don’t fancy the win part is smart betting. In that context, anything that reduces the win odds just to offer extra places is not my thing. I’d rather bet place only if I wanted to get that way.

      Matt

      Reply
      • Bee says:

        Hi Matt
        Regarding your comments to Kemal about e/w betting. I sometimes just want to bet a Place rather than e/w. I’ve looked at a few bookies but only seem to find Place betting on Betfair. Do you know of bookies that do Place only?

        Reply
        • Matt Bisogno says:

          Hi Bee

          Most bookies offer place only betting, though generally only on the day of the race. You need to look on the bookie sites for ‘place only’ betting.

          Matt

          Reply
  5. serpan says:

    Great video, Matt! Watching it twice, I think I’ll have a bet on Foxtrot Knight.
    Any instructions on how to get the data in similar spreadsheets? You mentioned that at the start of your video. Thanks a lot!

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Serpan

      Glad you liked the video. Re getting the data into a spreadie, I copy/paste it from the BHA racecard, though I’m sure you can do that from other sites (not geegeez.co.uk at present – we’ve always been concerned about data theft).

      Best,
      Matt

      Reply
      • Hardsie says:

        Hi Matt
        Tried to copy and paste racecard data into excel but it puts it all in one column. Could you let me know how you do it please.
        Regards,
        Cliff.

        Reply
        • Matt Bisogno says:

          Hi Cliff

          Sorry, I have an ‘owner’ account for BHA and it appears the ‘export data’ option is not available on the ‘public’ version. We’ll get something added to geegeez.co.uk to facilitate this.

          Matt

          Reply
  6. jp says:

    well you did highlight Henley and foxtrot would have won but for having to come around field. Well done Matt a great concept and I for one would like to know when you go live with it. I personally would hope it wouldn’t be a tip of the day format and rather some basic info to let us do our own digging to get the selection. Hoping to rejoin soon after a long time away form betting. JP

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks JP. Yes, it’s nice when you read them right – and I have to say that, so far, this approach has helped a lot in that regard. I backed the first two home, but had three times as much on the unlucky second as on the winner, albeit that the winner was 12/1 last night and this morning.

      As for the report, I’m still in two minds about whether it’ll be on site. If it is, it will most certainly be a ‘data dump’, i.e. do your own digging.

      Best,
      Matt

      Reply
  7. oscarbriso says:

    Good stuff mate. It was 2nd and only cause the jockey couldnt find a gap and left it to the end to go to the outside and by then it was already too late

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s easy to blame the jockey, and I’m not actually saying she was blameless. But, when you bet a 5 pound apprentice, these things happen. In fairness to her, she’s done what most riders would have done though perhaps a half second less instinctively. That’s just experience. I really like this girl, think she’s a decent jockey and well worth her 5lb. (Obviously still frustrating to just get caught on the line, but hopefully you can see the value of the process).

      Matt

      Reply
  8. oscarbriso says:

    I’m not saying she is a bad jockey it is probably not easy to find a gap from where she was. I’m just pissed off she didn’t win. She is probably good for an apprentice. But again if that was dettori or Sousa I think we would have won that one.

    Reply
    • Blokeshead says:

      Like Chris, I was on Alsvinder, so my interest had waned somewhat by the end. However, it didn’t strike me that the jockey in question here did anything notably wrong – when she moved right, looking for the gap, the horse seemed to go a fair bit further than it needed to (and those few feet might very well have cost the race), which may or may not have been the jockey’s inexperience. I’m no expert, and wouldn’t like to say one way or the other.

      On the subject of having better jockeys piloting our nags, isn’t it reasonable to assume the price would have been considerably lower with Dettori or Sousa onboard? Would this horse have been of interest from the punting perspective if it had been, say, a point or more lower in price?

      One final point/opinion: I’m already senile enough to have forgotten if it was yesterday or the day before, but I saw a race very recently where Luke Morris got boxed in with nowhere to go (thankfully in a race where I had no financial interest) – those gaps the pros “always” seem to find are NOT always there, even if they usually are. Even A.P. McCoy wasn’t flawless.

      Reply
  9. marso88 says:

    Hi Matt ,
    Excellent stuff.It does look like this could pay dividends .Just wandering if the personal trial period your running will be published on the geegeez? ,with any thoughts on your best and worst bets ?
    Atb
    Steve

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Steve

      I’m still tracking all my results, and sharing with a couple of people. Will be sure to produce an update piece in a few weeks when there is more evidence from which to draw conclusions.

      Matt

      Reply

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