Tobefair makes it onto The Shortlist for a three-mile handicap hurdle at Chepstow, with four sections of green and a good score of 12. He has a grey section for the going, however, he has shaped in the past that he would relish this ground as he has run extremely well on soft going.
This is a wide-open handicap where it is tough to confidently rule out any of the runners.
The most recent form of Tobefair hasn't been that great, with his three latest runs finishing down the field. Prior to that he had won seven on the spin and shot up the weights because of that. He has now been lowered to a mark of 138, which is just four pounds higher than his last win over three miles at Newbury, which I think gives him a chance.
Trainer Debra Hamer has managed a few wins here at Chepstow in the past, but it is with her middle distance jumpers with which she really excels. She has managed to have 14 winners (20.00%) and 23 places (32.86%) from 70 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.95 and 4.93 respectively, and an Impact Value of 1.82.
Trevor Whelan has ridden Tobefair for the last five races and has also managed a few wins here at Chepstow in the past. He rode Tobefair to his last two wins and appears to get on well with him.
The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Tobefair and how well suited he is to today's conditions.
A couple of the other runners have three sections of green in this report showing that they are also well suited, and importantly when the ground is this heavy is the ability to be able to handle those underfoot conditions.
The Pace report shows that early leaders and prominent runners here over this distance have the best record, with just over 12.5% of those runners in each section going on to win the race.
There don't appear to be any out and out front-runners in this field and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go at a steady pace early on given the conditions.
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