John Gosden has an excellent record with horses making their second start, as can be seen on the Trainer Snippets report. He's had 67 winners (30.32%) from 122 places (55.20%) from 221 runners, for level stakes profits of 35.44 and 20.51 respectively. This also has an Impact Value of 2.79.
This alludes to an ability to get a huge improvement from his runners after their first race.
To Arms runs in his second race today at Chelmsford for Gosden and he is who we are going to be concentrating on.
On the Racecard tab, when expanding the trainer and jockey form, we can see that Gosden has been in good form recently and Ryan Moore has a great record here at Chelmsford.
Over the past year, Moore has had 13 winners (44.83%) and 16 places (55.17%) from 29 runners, for level stakes profits of 14.89 and 10.56 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 4.12, meaning he is four times more likely than average to have the winner. It is clear that Moore doesn't ride here very often, but when he does it is worth taking note.
The sire of Two Arms, War Front, has a useful record with runners on the all weather courses and with two-year-olds, which is encouraging. He is showing a level stakes profit for both, with Impact Values of well over two.
Given the trainers record at improving his runners second time out, plus that of the jockey and sire, I think At Arms may be a little overpriced at 9/1.
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