Racing Insights

Racing Insight, 17th August 2021

Sorry for the delay, I was unavoidably detained elsewhere earlier! So, let's move quickly to Tuesday, where The Shortlist is the feature of the day and the free races are as follows...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.45 Sligo
  • 7.15 Sligo
  • 7.25 Leicester

Here is The Shortlist for Tuesday...

...where Boogie Time would be one to look at, but he's a favourite in a 4-horse race, so that's not fun. The third one down is interesting, because although Tellmeyourstory doesn't initially seem to have done well at Tuesday's trip, everything else looks favourable.

As I'm running late, the markets are already formed and in the 7.35 Carlisle, Tellmeyourstory is currently priced at 12/1 in a 9-runner race, so there could be an E/W bet for us here. The race itself is a Class 4, 3yo+, good-ground Flat handicap over 7f worth £4,752 and here the racecard entry...

He's number 9 of 9, so she's bottom weight here drawn in stall 5. Last of 5 and last of 10 in her most recent two runs at Beverley and Brighton, but before those she won back to back contests here at Carlisle, over 7f (CD) and 1m. She's been eased another pound and is now rated just 2lbs higher than her last win and as a 3 yr old gets a 5lb weight allowance. Trainer Mark Johnston and jockey Ben Curtis have positive course record icons and although she scores poorly on the Geegeez SR figures (probably via her last two outings), she has the second highest RPR & TS scores from the Racing Post.

Her Instant Expert graphic looks like this...

...with only rival Natchez Trace having anywhere near such a good line of form. Yes, they're small sample sizes, but still better to be green than red.

And her place numbers...

.are exactly the same as her win results. So far so good, but what of her stall 5 berth, right in the centre of the draw?

Well, it's as good as anywhere else really...

But I suppose if it was a choice between stalls 1-5 or 6 and above, you'd want the lower half of the draw from both a win (8 v 3) and a place (22 v 11) perspective. So we're in the "better half of the draw", how should we use that placement, though?

Quite simply, be up with the pace or forget about it! And yes, Tellmeyourstory is a confirmed front runner, as seen in her pace scores for her last four races...

She won by a head here over course and distance in mid-June and the race report said..."led, ridden flashed tail and headed over 1f, rallied inside final furlong, led again towards finish..." She then stepped up in class to this grade, moved up to a mile and won again here by a length in early July..."slight stumble start, made all and set strong pace, stayed on gamely, unchallenged" suggesting she might well have won by more. She's just 2lbs higher and the pace/draw make-up of this race looks like this...

Summary

Tellmeyourstory is certainly suited by conditions here, she's drawn well and likes to set the pace, which is preferred here at Carlisle, but she's 12/1. Part of that is because of the quality of some of her rivals and partly because of her last two runs, but she's a different animal here at Carlisle.

Does she win this? In all honesty, probably not. You've got to be keener on the likes of Chookie Dunedin at 5/1 or the in-form 9/4 shot Poet's Magic, but there's the definite possibility of Tellmeyourstory bouncing back to form under favourable circumstances and at 12/1, I can't resist a cheeky E/W punt.

 

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