Racing Insights

Racing Insight, 19th May 2021

Sometimes races just pan out totally differently than virtually everyone expects them to. I'm disappointed that my three against the field finished 5th, 6th and 7th today, but when you see the first four home were sent off at 28/1, 18/1, 17/2 and 10/1 with the tricast paying 4,690/1, you just know that not many others called it right either.

Wednesday, thankfully, is another day and we get to do it all over again, starting with 'feature of the day', which is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our free 'races of the day' are scheduled to be...

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.45 Ayr
  • 3.45 Cork
  • 6.20 Southwell
  • 6.50 Southwell
  • 8.05 Kempton

The last of those makes most appeal to me from an analysis point of view, even if there are more runners than I'm comfortable with. I'll look to quickly eliminate several of them from my enquiries before doing any deeper research in to the 8.05 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ runners over 7f on Standard to Slow polytrack, where £4,347 will end up with the owner of one of these...

Paxos finds himself a whole 15pts clear on the SR figures, whilst those ranked 2nd to 7th are only separated by a further 14pts.
Nine of the fourteen have a win (or more) on their recent form line
We have five class droppers and two risers.
There's one handicap debutant, four course winners, five distance winners and four others who have won over track and trip at the same time.
Two horses are coming off layoffs of over six months, whilst five have raced in the last fortnight.

I've gone through the card and I'm getting rid of half of the field and treating this like a 7-horse race and I'm left with these horses as follows, who will be berthed in stalls 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 13.

I haven't yet looked at the pace and draw stats yet and I might find that I've landed myself in the wrong half of the draw, but these things happen and I want you to see me go through my routine, whether it's right or wrong (there's no pre-prepping or backfitting done at Geegeez). I have also ended up with the top seven from the SR rankings, but that was entirely coincidental.

The Draw...

As it happens, the draw is stacked towards those drawn lowest with the horse getting stall 1 doing best of all. And whilst Thrill Seeker's box 13 doesn't look great from a win perspective, the 8 places from 34 is actually better than where likely favourite Tomouh is likely to be. So far, I'd say a slight advantage to Gavi di Gavi and Mohareb in stalls 1 and 6.

The Pace...

Essentially, the further forward you race, the better, but apart from being held up it looks like it's possible to win/place from anywhere, so we'll have a quick look at how our runners have raced in their last few outings...

All of them have raced prominently (score of 3) at least once with Dyami, Thrill Seeker and Paxos having three scores of 3 or higher. Dyami and Mohareb have both set the pace recently.

Draw/Pace...

We should now be able to see which combination of draw/running style would be best for win/place purposes. I'm talking about the places a lot, because this race pays on the first four home with some bookies paying out on fifth too.

And despite the lower draw looking best when taken in isolation, it's mid to high drawn leaders that fare best with low drawn runners better off tucking in just behind. We can now overlay our runners onto those heatmaps as follows...

Win...

Place...

There's actually no real pace setter in this contest, but based on the past runs, I'd expect Dyami and Thrill Seeker to take a step to the right, so to speak and take the race on.

So, before I nail my colours to the mast, let's look at our our seven have performed in similar past contests and we can also have a closer look at recent form...

And the numbers of wins speak for themselves there, but I should point out that Tomouh is on handicap debut here, whilst from a place perspective...

...Gavi de Gavi has some excellent figures here, especially for those looking for an each way bet.

Caspian Queen was third of nine on his debut for new handler SPC Woods at Lingfield six weeks ago and that came after 172 days off the track, so she'd be entitled to improve for the run. She runs off the same mark here, but has lost her 5lb claimer, although James Doyle might well make up for some of it. Tough for her to win, but definite place credentials.

Dyami was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in October and was only beaten by a length and three quarters over C&D next/last time out despite stepping up two classes. Back down one grade and eased a pound in the weights, he'd have a good chance here but for maybe needing a run after over six months off.

Mohareb is on a long losing run (16 defeats since the last day of 2019), but was only beaten by just over 4 lengths in a higher grade last time out. He's eased another pound down to a mark of 83, which is now 3lbs below that last win. I don't see him winning but if things fell his way, he could make the top 5.

Thrill Seeker has been hugely consistent, finishing in the first three home in all nine races since coming home last of 8 on debut at ascot is September 2019. he was off the track for 395 days after that race, but since returning last October his form reads 331222123 and his last effort at this trip saw him go down by just half a length at a higher grade. Contender here.

Tomouh is the likely favourite here and looks a promising if relatively untested filly. She was beaten by a neck in a lower grade at Chelmsford last time out and although she has excellent breeding, her lack of race sharpness would be a deterrent if she was short priced.

Paxos comes here on a hat trick and won won over course and distance last time out, grabbing the lead inside the final furlong to score by half a length. He's up in class and up 4lbs making this a tougher prospect, but he's in great from and is sure to give another good account of himself.

Gavi de Gavi has two wins and three places from his last six outings, but has tired/faded inside the final furlong on his last two runs, so the drop back from a mile should help him remain competitive here off the same mark. He's likely to find at least one or two better than him, but his record suggests he's good for a place.

Summary

I've looked closely at seven runners and with five places up for grabs, I'm going to eliminate two now.

I think Dyami is the weakest of the seven, so he departs the scene at this point. I've also just looked at the market and I'm not keen on 9/4 about Tomouh, so I don't want to bet at that price, so I'll discard the fav here.

That leaves me with five for the places. Of the five, I like Thrill Seeker best and 13/2 looks a decent offer for an opening show. From the others, Paxos is too short at 3/1 for an E/W bet, but Gavi de Gavi, Caspian Queen and Mohareb are all interesting at 12/1, 10/1 and 20/1 respectively from an E/W perspective and I'd probably have them in that order of preference.

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