Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 10th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2009, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

This fantastic report is FREE to ALL readers EVERY Wednesday and is complemented this week with the following free races of the day...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 3.50 Dundalk
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.30 Kempton

My settings for the TS report are fairly strict, so I've no qualifiers to share with you today, so I'm going to cover the first of the free races, a big-field stayers' handicap over fences aka the 1.30 Bangor, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over three miles on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places. It's worth over £13.5k to one of these...

It certainly looks a competitive affair and picking a winner might be tricky, but with most bookies paying four places and some paying five, I'm hopeful of at least finding a couple of E/W angles today.

As most of you are probably aware, once you get past 10 or 11 eleven runners in a race, I'm stepping outside my comfort zone, so I'm going to try and whittle the field down pretty quickly before looking at a smaller number of runners to choose from and with that in mind, I'm immediately discounting...

  • Belami des Pictons, because he has been off the track for 641 days and hasn't won any race since February 2017 and has lost his last three by a combined 60 lengths.
  • Beware The Bear, whose two runs in the spring of this year saw him last of seven, beaten by 71 lengths and then he was pulled up next/last time out. Has since been shipped out of Nicky Henderson's yard.
  • Bobo Mac, who hasn't won a race in two years, but is still 10lbs higher than that win and now steps up in class.
  • Late Romantic, whose yard looks worst off based on both recent form and their record at this venue.

All of which reduces my field down to ten runners, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown on Instant Expert...

...where what I need is at least one win under at least one of today's race conditions based on going, class, course and distance and beacuse I wan't to show you how quickly you can eliminate runners from consideration, I'm now taking out Captain Chaos, Windsor Avenue, Blaklion (even if he did win the 2o16 RSA Chase) and Captain Tommy, leaving my racecard looking like this...

And it's from these six, that I want to reduce it down to four or five possibles for a win or E/W bet. There is, of course, the danger that I've already discarded the winner and I end up with no bet, but that's perfectly fine, as there's another 28 races and 335 runners to consider away from this race!

So, I now turn to the pace stats for both this type of race...

...and also for my sixrunners' last four outings...

The pace analyser says we should avoid those who'll try to make the running and I think that rules Eclair Surf out of my thoughts now. Prominent runners fare best, which is good news for both Legends Gold and Snow Leopardess, but doesn't rule any of the others out, although I'd not want Falco Blitz to go off too hard.

Summary

We've pretty quickly gone from 14 to 5 and in alphabetical order, we have...

  • Canelo fell at the Chair in this year's Grand National (but so have many!) last time out, but in the the year or so prior to that had finished 1012143 over fences showing great consistency including a grade 3 success at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Now only 3lbs heavier than that win and look suited by trip and ground conditions, should have a good chance here if ready to fire first up.
  • Falco Blitz is only 7 yrs old and has just six chase starts under his bely, making the frame in half of them and winning once. His best form has been at Class 3 and has mainly raced over shorter trips than today. Has a tendency to go off a little quickly and jumps left. He definitely has potential, but I'd say he's the weakest of my five.
  • Legends Gold won over fences at the first time of asking last October, despite not having raced for 8 months and this 7 yr old mare returns from a similar absence here. She ran really well to finish second of fourteen over 3m4f last time out, but has won (Ludlow hurdles) over today's trip and also here at Bangor (2m3½f hurdle) in the past. Should make the frame all things considered.
  • Sam's Adventure had a strange end to last season with Class 2 wins at Haydock (Tommy Whittle) and Newcastle (Eider) sandwiching the Peter Marsh at Haydock where he unseated his rider, a feat he then repeated in his last outing, the Scottish National at Ayr. Has serious ability, but probably prefers further than this and would want "worse" ground. Three miles on good to soft/soft is hardly a sprint, but he'd be better off with more of a stamina challenge and this might be too sharp for him.
  • Snow Leopardess is lightly raced (15 starts) for a 9 yr old and this mare took to fences well last season, winning a Class 2 on handicap debut at Haydock (3m1½f, soft) almost a year ago. She was then just three quarters of a length behind Canelo in the Gr3 Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day and is now 3lbs better off with the winner, even if the form from that race hasn't really amounted to much. That said, she was a decent enough fourth in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival and this should be much easier, even if she'd probably want the ground to be a bit quicker.

Bear with me now, as this might not come across as I intend it, but I'll try...

Of my five, I really like Canelo and at 12/1 with Hills (paying 4 places), he's a definite E/W bet for me, but Snow Leopardess is probably the one to beat, now 3lbs better off with Canelo after being beaten by just three parts of a length on Boxing Day. However, Snow Leopardess is 'only' 5/1 and I think that's a little shy in such a competitive race. I might have had a dabble at 6's or bigger, but I'll hang fire on her for now.

As for the other three, Falco Blitz is too short for me to back at 17/2 with the reservations I have about him, Sam's Adventure is teasingly priced at 12's and could well make the frame but he'd prefer more of a stamina test, but Legends Gold should be good for a place and although 10/1 is as short as I'd be comfortable with about him, I'll have an E/W tickle there, too.

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