Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 10th September 2021

Friday's free offering is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, showing the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

We also have our usual selection of full free racecards and for Friday, they are...

  • 2.00 Sandown
  • 2.40 Doncaster
  • 6.15 Salisbury
  • 7.00 Ballinrobe

My (H4C) report looks like this today...

...where Revich is worth a second glance, even if it has been over a year and ten races since he last won. He's likely to be the favourite, which suggests the race might not be up to much, so I'm heading back to Donny again for the Doncaster Cup Stakes, a 7-runner Group 2 race for 3yo+ stayers. The ground is still expected to be good to firm, the trip is a huge 2m2f and the winner of the 2.40 Doncaster will receive almost £62,400...

CARD DETAILS :

FORM :
Positives : Alerta Roja & Stradivarius are 2 from 3
Negatives : Eagles By Day & Nayef Road are winless in 5

CLASS :
Eagles By Day is up 1 class & Alerta Roja is up 3

COURSE : Stradivarius, Rodrigo Diaz & The Grand Visir have all won here

DISTANCE : Only Stradivarius is a past winner at 2m2f and he's done it here at Doncaster

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : All have raced in the last 20-45 days

TRAINER FORM :
Positives : Stradivarius (recent & course), Rodrigo Diaz (course) & The Grand Visir (course)
Negatives : Trueshan (recent)

JOCKEY FORM :
Positives : Stradivarius (recent & course), Eagles By Day (course), Nayef road (recent & course), Rodrigo Diaz (course)
Negatives : Rodrigo Diaz (recent), The Grand Visir (course) & Alerta Roja (course)

WEIGHTS : Based on OR/hcp marks, Stradivarius is 5lbs well in over Trueshan who is next best at 2lbs better than Alerta Roja and so on.

INSTANT EXPERT...

POSITIVES : Trueshan, Stradivarius

NEGATIVES : Nayef Road

DRAW...

Based on very limited data, as this is the only 2m2f race at Doncaster each year, I'd say stalls 2 to 4 had fared best (The Grand Visir, Alerta Roja, Trueshan), but let's get real for a moment, shall we? Rodrigo Diaz in stall 7 will be less than 7 metres wide of Nayef Road in stall 1 and with 3,600 metres to run, surely the draw can't have much effect here? However, this might...

PACE...

Again, a similarly small amount of data to work with, but those waited with seem to be the ones to be on...

And that could suit Eagles By Day & Rodrigo Diaz (3 scores of 1) more than Nayef Road & The Grand Visir (average pace scores of 3)

SUGGESTED PACE/DRAW HEATMAP...

Again with the caveat about limited data...

Stalls 1 & 2 seem up against it and the winner should come from higher with Trueshan and Rodrigo Diaz having the best pace/draw make-up here.

Summary

I've whizzed through the card fairly quickly and the two names that crop up all the time are Stradivarius & Trueshan and they're the two I expect to be the first home with possibly Nayef Road best of the rest.

Stradivarius has been there, done it, worn the T-shirt etc and is an undoubtedly tough cookie, he stays all day but isn't the force he was and I'm a little concerned at how much his win three weeks ago has taken out of him. He was really pushed hard by Spanish Mission at York and hasn't had has long as usual between races here.

Trueshan was really impressive in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup last time out and his connections will be praying that some of the rumoured imminent rain arrives in time to soften this track. An extra 2f awaits him here too, but he was still full of running after two miles on soft ground last time out, so he could yet improve.

I have doubts about both and I don't think there's that much between them here either, so it's going to boil down to price/perceived value and I prefer Trueshan at 3/1 to an odds-on Stradivarius, plus the reverse forecast, of course!

As for Revich from my (H4C) report, I've backed him at 4/1 too.

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