Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 11th August 2021

Wednesday's feature of the day is the excellent Trainer Stats report, which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2016, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

In addition to a daily free feature, we also offer selection of full free racecards each day and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Salisbury
  • 3.50 Yarmouth
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.45 Ffos Las

You can set your own search/qualification parameters for the Trainer Stats report, which will determine how many "possibles" you get each day. I like to be fairly stringent with my settings, meaning I don't always have many to consider, but my settings for 5 yr course handicappers for Wednesday have produced a couple for me to look at...

4.25 Yarmouth is an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over 7f on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £3,240, where Simon Crisford's 3yr old filly makes just her fifth appearance...

Sense of Humour was a winner here by a length over course and distance almost three weeks ago, wearing a hood and a first-time tongue tie (both are in situ again here) staying on well at the finish. The report of the race reads..."dwelt, held up in 4th, headway going nicely under 4f out, waiting for room over 2f out, gap opened and closed from well over 1f out, led well inside final furlong and on top close home..."

She's now up three pounds for that win on handicap debut but she could well have more to come having broken her duck. Her yard have a 24.2% strike rate with LTO winners (70/289), whilst her jockey is 50 from 221 (22.3% SR) here since the start of 2016, all of which is promising, as is the fact that she gets a 6lbs weight for age allowance here.

Instant Expert won't tell us too much about her after just four starts, but here are her numbers anyway...

Those are reasonable enough numbers to start a career with and they suggest she could well be in with a shout of making the frame. She's drawn in stall 6 today, which is a positive as prevous similar contests have favoured those racing from the middle (3 to 6) stalls...

And those races have also tended to suit those quick away with leaders winning far more often than any other running style...

and if we look at recent running styles of this field, we see that our filly has the second highest pace score...

Flibbertigibbert's 4 score LTO (ie led) is the only 4 on view from all eight runners' last four outings, so that one might well force the pace, but what we have with Sense of Humour is a prominent runner drawn in the middle of the stalls, which puts her in the 9.52% bracket below...

That's based on just two winners from 21 runners, but with 10 of them (47.6%) making the frame, this further enhances her chances of being involved in the final shake-up.

*

Our second runner, Crystal Guard, runs in the 5.05 Beverley, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+, maiden flat handicap over 1m4f on good ground worth £3,888. The ground is already softer in places and more showers are due, so keep an eye out for the going, as it might well change..

As you can see, 3lb claimer jockey Dylan Hogan has had a decent year for trainer Michael Bell, although he comes here without a win in his last 24 rides (he does have two at Chelmsford on Tuesday evening, so that might change!). We know the yard does well in handicaps here and he now brings this 3 yr old colt here for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the seventh attempt. He wore a visor for the first time two starts ago to good effect as he was a half length runner-up over 1m2f at Brighton four weeks ago.

He stayed on well at the finish that day, suggesting a longer trip would suit, but he struggled in the last of 14 furlongs at Nottingham a week later. He's back down in trip to 1m4f here and that might well be the happy medium for him. He runs off a mark of 68 here, 2lbs higher than his last two efforts, but Dylan Hogan's claim more than negates that and we could well have a contender here.

This is a maiden handicap, so there's no winning form to display, meaning that I'll head straight to the place element of Instant Expert...

As I said, he has little experience behind him, but a place on the going, class and field size is promising. He's drawn five of six here and in similar contests, a high draw has been beneficial, with stall five being the pick...

In those races above, there haven't been enough mid-division runners to form a judgement on how they might perform, but we can tell you that of the other three running styles, the further forward you race, the better your chances...

...which at first glance, isn't great news at all for Crystal Guard who is a confirmed hold-up horse. High drawn hold-up horses have just one win and one place from eleven efforts in stark contrast to the three wins and two places from seven for high drawn leaders like Outback Boy, who is drawn widest of all and a definite front runner (the only one in the race), so followers of Crystal Guard will hope he gets towed along by the pace-setter.

Summary

Two horses both with good chances of making the frame in Class 5 handicaps and both available around the 3/1 mark, but I'll not be backing either here. I'd expect them both to be very involved and they should make the frame, but I fear they'll both find at least one, if not more, better than them.

At Yarmouth, Sense of Humour is likeliest to be undone by the likes of the 3/1 Dashing Dick, but pace angle Flibbertigibbert (11/4) might be afforded a soft lead that would be hard to claw back. Whilst at Beverley, I see a tight race but the 13/8 favourite Riches and Rubies should be the one to beat. Outback Boy will attempt to set the pace and should also feature.

So, no actual bets for me, but if you wanted to back both featured horses for a place, I won't try to dissuade you.

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4 replies
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  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Hi Chris – always use Trainer stats & Trainer/Jockey stats – excellent provider of quality bets. Although I am a little more stringent with my settings. Can you please remind me what PRB stands for ?

    Many thanks for your ongoing quality reads, I do hope some of angles you mention daily improves my selection process.

    Best Wishes

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Robert

      PRB is Percentage of Rivals Beaten. 0.50, 50%, is average (beat as many as were beaten by), while 0.45 is considered a poor score and 0.55 a good one.

      Matt

      • Rambler
        Rambler says:

        Many thanks Matt – I always set mine at 0.60 but never knew why ! Now I know . – cheers.

    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Cheers, R.
      Yes, I often use tighter criteria myself, but I’d invariably have very little to show you for midweek racing 😉

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