Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 11th December 2021

Saturday's free feature is the fantastic Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

And in addition to this report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 11.30 Fairyhouse
  • 12.05 Cheltenham
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Fairyhouse
  • 4.30 Newcastle
  • 4.45 Wolverhampton

The Venetia Williams/Charlie Deutsch trainer/jockey combo are in sparkling form right now and prior to Friday's racing where they have/had two runners at Cheltenham, the partnership had 7 winners and 4 further placers from just 19 runners over the past 30 days and with 2 more handicappers booked in at Cheltenham on Saturday, that's where I'm heading with this piece.

So, basically...

Both geldings will run in Good to Soft ground chases, the 6yr old Frero Banbou tackles an 8-runner, Class 2 affair over 2m½f worth just over £15,600 whilst the 9 yr old Cepage is entered into a 15-runner, Grade 3 contest over 2m4½f in search of a prize of over £74k!

Before we look at the individual horses, let's consider those 19 runners above, as they include...

  • 7 wins, 4 places from 18 over fences
  • 4 wins, 4 places from 14 male runners
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 10 on Good to Soft
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 x 6 yr olds (0/1 with a 9yo)
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at Class 2 (1 from 3 at Class 1)
  • 2 wins from 3 over 2m4½f/2m5f (0/1 at 2m½f)
  • and 0/1 here at Cheltenham

Plenty of encouragement from those stats, so let's start with Frero Banbou in the 1.15 Cheltenham...

Frero Banbou has been improving with pretty much each run that has seen him finish 331443 over fences with his best run to date coming when 4th of 18 in the Grade 3 Red Rum handicap at Aintree back in April, which came despite a 13lb rise for winning a Class 3 contest at Sandown four weeks earlier. He didn't run again after that Aintree effort until reappearing in a Listed race at Ascot at the end of October, where he was 4th of 10 despite a drop in quality and a 2lb easing in weight. Since then, he has dropped down to this Class 2 level and was eased yet another 2lbs, but could only finish 3rd of 12, beaten by 8 lengths at Newbury a fortnight ago. He's back up a pound here and is still 10lbs higher than his win, which makes life tough, but he's certainly not out of it so far.

Based on relevant past exploits, Editeur du Gite would appear to be the one to beat, but without much green in evidence elsewhere, Frero Banbou remains in contention.

The pace stats here for this type of contest are as follows...

...telling us that the ideal profile is one that gets away sharpish and stays right on the pace throughout. Prominent runners do well for the place, but tend not to catch the leaders often enough, so let's see how this field normally run...

Well, again it's Editeur du Gite who's the one to catch again with a perfect 16 for front-running pace, whilst Frero might well end up mid-division here which won't really enhance his chances, despite his obvious ability.

*

Our second race is, of course, trickier with almost twice as many runners competing over further at a higher grade for much more money! So, here's the 1.50 Cheltenham featuring Cepage...

Cepage bears top weight here on his return from almost nine months off the track, during which time all bar one (stable mate Farinet) of his rivals have seen some action. For his part, he has made the frame in over half (10) of his nineteen starts over fences, winning four times, although he's only 1 from 9 at Class 1. He has a win and three places from eight runs on this track and gets on well with Charlie Deutsch. He was beaten by just over 10 lengths here last time out off a career high mark of 158 and is only eased a pound, so this is no easy ride for him, especially as he's 0 from 10 after more than a month off track.

...and his relevant form under today's conditions don't exactly scream "back me!", Siruh du Lac looks the one to beat, but his recent form is poor and jhe's certainly not the horse who finished 1131111 from Nov'17 to Mar'19, but if running like he could, who knows? Fusil Raffles is the only other without any reds (or blanks).

As for pace, it's a similar story to the earlier race, where the advice is to set the pace to get as close to the leader as you can. If, however, you can't get close, then hang back a but further and settle in mid-division for a late run...

And the runners' pace scores suggest that Cepage's stablemate Farinet is likely to set the fractions alongside the afore-mentioned Siruh du Lac, but with the latter finishing 7th of 8 at Class 2 LTO and failing complete his previous three runs, he'd not be one for me to hang my hat on...

Cepage looks like he's going to end up second rank (prominent) which isn't ideal and he's probably going to have to step forward a little or step back a bit.

Summary

I think Frero Banbou is good enough to make the frame in the 1.15 Cheltenham and there's not much between him and the likes of Amoola Gold or Cheddleton, but one of the three is likely to miss out, as I've got Editeur du Gite winning this on form, Instant Expert, pace and much more! So, my play here is EdG to win at 11/4. Frero is only 9/2, so I won't be backing him E/W either.

As for the 1.50 Cheltenham, I'm not keen on Cepage's chances at all, if I'm honest. Don't get me wrong, he's a good horse and more than capable of landing such a race on his day, but for me he's too high in the weights, would prefer softer ground, will probably need the run and won't be well positioned, so he's a no from me, even at 16 to 20/1. Based on the above, I like Fusil Raffles at 8/1 and I'd take a small E/W punt there, especially if I can get on with a firm paying five places. Midnight Shadow would be another possible at the same price, whilst Siruh du Lac could surprise a few people at 16's.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Hi Chris – The usual honest column, much appreciated. Will be having a small bet on Exacta’s on the horses you mention in both races at Cheltenham. Many Thanks (as usual) Bob S.

    Reply
  3. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Off to see if the Stones can avenge the F.A. Cup defeat against Dartford F.C. this afternoon – making use of my Season ticket and meeting up with cricket & golfing mates, for the “usual” ! Cheers Again.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.