Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 11th October

Pace analysis is a relatively new area for many UK bettors, but it is is one which is in fact as old as the hills, and without which even novice horse players in some countries will not bet. But what is it?

Well, pace helps to inform how a race will be run even before the horses have left the starting stalls, which can be a massive advantage over other bettors. To this end, we make the PACE tab on our racecards FREE to ALL readers every Sunday & Monday for ALL races, including Monday's free races of the day, which will be...

  • 3.25 Wolverhampton
  • 4.10 Musselburgh
  • 4.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.55 Yarmouth

And the best of those races would appear to be the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 12-runner, Class 2, flat handicap for 3yo+ horses. It's worth £10,308 and the trip is a right handed 7f on soft ground...

What I want to do here is a very quick process of elimination, because we really should be able to assess a race in a matter of minutes before moving to the next. So from the racecard alone, I want to get rid of...

Eagleway on horse, trainer and jockey form,
Hey Jonesy on horse and trainer form
National League stepping up in class despite being out of form
Northern Express stepping up two classes and two pounds after only getting home by a neck LTO, plus yard and jockey are in poor form

And I then want to head straight to Instant Expert and the place stats in particular...

I used the place stats first today, because if a horse isn't placing, then it's generally not winning either! Which signals the end for...
Bravado on class and distance
Hayadh on going.

You never know what might happen with the British weather, but after whittling the field down to half of the runners, I'm happy that all six have what it takes to make the frame on whatever the final going is, even if it improves to Good to Soft or if it deteriorates and becomes heavy, these place stats speak for themselves...

The only slight area of concern is about Volatile Analyst at this grade, but he has won two of three Class 2 races on Good to Soft/Soft, so he survives the cull, leaving me with half a dozen possibles for three places. They're drawn in stalls 2, 4, 6, 9, 10 and 12, so strung all way across., but based on the A/E (which correlates to the win percentages) for each stall, those drawn highest seem best off...

...which favours Muntadab, Volatile Analyst and Danzan from my six, possibly Fools Rush In too from a mid-draw of 6. Now we need to look at the pace stats and how they correlate with the draw, Firstly the standalone pace data tells us that those who lead are far more likely to win or place...

...which makes the following pace/draw heat map fairly obviously biased towards those drawn higher who like to get on with things...

So, if any of Fools Rush In, Muntadab, Volatile Analyst or Danzan are natural pacemakers, then they'll surely stand a great chance here. Let's look at their last four outings...

Fools has led twice, Muntadab three times whilst Volatile and Danzan are definite prominent runners. And I think that at this point, they're the four I want to be choosing between.

Summary

I've quickly taken twelve down to four and a quick look at each, starting with...

Danzan, who wouldn't be an obvious winner after scoring just once in 27 attempts on the Flat, but his 16 places (59%) suggest he'll get involved again. He has finished 23333 in his last five, but beaten by 1.25 lengths or less in each. He'll probably fall just short again here.

Fools Rush In has won five of his last eight and can be forgiven for not completing a hat-trick when well beaten at Leopardstown last time out. That was a far better race (worth £66k) than this one and on quicker ground and he should go better here, but he'd need a career-best to win.

Muntadab has a very healthy 21% strike rate from his 67 Flat outings and has two wins and two places from eight runs here at Musselburgh, all over today's trip. Much will depend on whether he can grab the early lead ahead of the likes of Bravado and/or Hayadh, but if he can, he could well hang on for at least a place.

Volatile Analyst ran a career best at York last time out to win by half a length over six furlongs, but is now up in weight by 5lbs and up in trip, which makes life tough. His best for has been over 6f and I think he might get run out of this one.

Which leads me to Fools Rush In as a tentative pick in what could be a decent/tight contest. If you are going to have a bet in tight/tricky etc handicaps, then it needs to be worth your while, so let's see what price we can get...

...and at 4.55pm, he was 8/1 and with several bookies paying four places, I'll go 8/1 E/W about Fools Rush In. Danzan looks set for the frame again, but I need a little bit more than his current 15/2 best price, but I will take some of the 14/1 E/W offered for Muntadab, whilst I'll be leaving Volatile Analyst alone : he's too short for my liking at 5/1!

 

 

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