Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 12th May 2021

The week is going OK so far, Monday's pick drifted from 4/1 to 22/1 and was beaten, but my alternate won the race, whilst Tuesday's pick was a 7/2 winner. I'll be hoping the run continues on Wednesday, where we're all aided by full free access to the Trainer Stats report as well as the following 'races of the day'...

  • 3.10 York
  • 5.10 Perth
  • 5.50 Bath
  • 6.50 Bath
  • 7.30 Dundalk

The first of that list is clearly the "best" of the five, so today's focus is on the 3.10 York, which is the 8-runner Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (3yo Fillies, Group 3) over 1m2½f on Good (softer in places) ground worth £42,532. The bookies suggest it's a two-horse race at fairly restrictive odds, but they might not be right and even if they are with eight set to run, there could be a decent priced E/W bet to be had.

We'll never know unless we take a look, so here's the card...

Only two of these (Mystery Angel & Snowfall) ran at Class 1 last time out and the others are all stepping up two, three or even four grades to run here. All eight have at least one win in their last five outings and three have won over this trip in the past, namely Mystery Angel, Noon Star and Teona.

Auria has just three runs to her name, but has been in the frame on each occasion, winning once in a Class 5 novice event over a mile on the A/W at Kempton in November. She ran creditably in a 1.5 length defeat at Ascot last month on her return from a 168-day absence, but she's up two classes and 2½f here and you've got to fancy others more.

Glenartney is likely to be one of the outsiders here today, making just her third career start and not having run since the end of October. She's up in trip considerably (+3.5f) and moves up from Class 4, but to her credit, she did win that C4 Novice race at Newmarket last time out. The rain won't bother her, as that win came on heavy ground, but this is a tough race for her after a lay-off.

Mystery Angel is the most experienced runner in the race, having made eight prior appearances, winning three times and placing in three others. Since finishing fourth of seven on debut in August, she has never been out of the first three home and has finished 3221 in four Class 1 contests, culminating in a win over 1m2f in the Listed Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket 10 days ago. Her yard is 4 from 12 over the last fortnight and has a 36.8% strike rate with LTO winners over the last two years.

Noon Star was third of eleven in a Class 2 maiden last September and is two from two since. Her latest run came just seventeen days ago when 2.5 lengths clear over 1m2f at Ascot despite not having raced for over six months. She's very well bred, but this is a much tougher contest than the Class 5 race she won last time out, although the fourth placed runner that day has since won a Listed race and Noon Star is best off at the weights here based on official ratings.

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Quiet Assassin won a Class 5 Novice event at Beverley on debut last August but hasn't kicked on from there, finishing 7th, 7th and 6th in her three other 2020 outings. She returned to action four weeks ago after six months off and was last home of seven beaten by more than 17 lengths in a 1m Class 3 handicap and she's hard to fancy here based on her form.

Senita quite possibly needed the run when last of seven at Newbury four weeks ago over 1m2f (Class 3) after a six month absence, as she had ran well in all three starts as a 2yo, finishing 221 over 7f and 1m and only beaten by 1.5 lengths each time. Again this is a big step up in trip and class and as such, I'd suggest mid-division would be the best she could hope for.

Snowfall is certainly used to this standard (or better) of racing, as her last four outings have been at Gr3, Gr2 and Gr1 for her last two. Sadly, she has failed to make the frame in any of the four, losing her last three by an average of around 11 lengths since going down by 5 lengths at this grade at Leopardstown last August. She wouldn't be an obvious pick for me as a winner, but her experience of Class 1 racing might well carry her to a position where she has a say in the final proceedings, if she stays the trip.

Teona is the likely short-priced favourite today and she comes here off the back of two decent runs. She was only beaten by a length on debut on the A/W at Newcastle over a mile in October, before stepping up two furlongs at the same track three weeks later to win a Class 4 maiden by nine lengths. She's entitled to improve, of course, but I'm concerned about how short she is considering she's up from Class 4, hasn't raced for almost six months and hasn't run on turf yet, but if fit enough and handling the ground would be a major player here.

That gives s a quick overview of the octet's short careers so far, but in respect of the contest ahead, we can screw down into the more relevant data via Instant Expert...

And whilst I wouldn't necessarily write any of them off based on those graphics, especially those with no relevant runs, those who have run under these conditions and have been successful will always catch the eye, as they're not being asked to do something new! The field size column is the one I pay least attention to here, as that only really concerns me in very small or large fields, whilst going, class and distance all point towards the runners in stalls 1 and 2, Mystery Angel and Noon Star.

Whether they've got good draws or not, though, remains to be seen, so let's do that now...

...and yes, stalls 1 and 2 aren't bad places to be at all, but there doesn't look to be a bad draw, notwithstanding the poor result from stall 6. I generally disregard such numbers, because they're more anomalous than they are reliable. After all, stall 6 has produced more placers than stall 5, they've just not gone on to win often enough.

So, if we're not saying that any of the field are particularly disadvantaged by the draw, we should see if there's any advantage offered to any racing style...

...and the answer to that question is that leaders win far more often than par and also more often than the other three running styles. Prominent racers make the frame most often, though, whilst mid-division looks like the place to avoid.

And with the above data in mind, it's not too surprising to see that low or mid-drawn leaders fare best, whilst mid to high draws struggle in mid-division....

And if we look at our field's recent outings and overlay them onto that heatmap...

...the suggestion is that two afore-mentioned low draw runners, Mystery Angel and Noon Star might well make the running here, although Quiet Assassin did set the pace in her penultimate start. There is also a possibility that some of those who race further back might find themselves with too much to do late on now stepping up in class and trip.

Summary

On Tuesday, one name kept cropping up and Poet's Dawn did indeed go on to win. For Wednesday's race, we've got two who have consistently ticked boxes throughout the process, Mystery Angel and Noon Star. I know the bookies don't/won't agree with me, but I'm having them in that order as I think the former's experience/success at this level shades it, so it's 13/2 about Mystery Angel for me here.

As for favourite Teona, she's not for me at sub-2/1, I'm afraid and if I was to throw another into the mix for a decent priced speculative E/W shot, then Snowfall certainly knows what level she needs to get to. Whether she can get there is debatable, but 14/1 is a nice price to debate!

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