Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 13th April 2021

Mixed emotions from Tuesday's race, I suppose. Rhythmic Intent didn't run and my pick for the race Hortzadar never really got into it from too far off the pace. My third and fourth rated horses, which became #2 and #3 after the non-runner, fared me much better giving me E/W returns at 14/1 and 16/1, so enough back for a socially distanced pint or two outside later 😉

Wednesday's 'feature of the day' is the Trainer Statistics report and our free races are...

  • 2.00 Leopardstown
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Beverley
  • 4.00 Beverley
  • 4.40 Kempton

The 3.00 Newmarket aka the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes is the best of that handful of races, but with a small field and an odds on favourite, we'll settle for second best on this occasion and head for the 4.00 Beverley, , a 9-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over five furlongs on Good to Firm ground that will be good in places and watering is taking place to keep it from getting any quicker. Top prize here is £6,185 for one of these...

This looks like another tight contest, the type we love to try and crack, of course. All bar two have a win in their last five outings, we've three dropping down a class, one moving up a class and one upped two classes. All nine have won at the trip, we've three course and distance winners, including a 2021 Geegeez Flat Profiles horse.

Five have raced in the last three weeks, whilst the other four are returning from breaks of 180 to 214 days and the spread on the Geegeez ratings is tight, ranging from 90 down to just 73. When bottom rated is higher than 80% of top rating, you know it's expected to be tight, but hopefully we can find the winner, starting with...

Jawwaal, who hasn't raced for 214 days, but goes best fresh, as shown by his success in back to back 5f sprints last summer when coming back from 259 days off track, including landing a valuable big-field contest at Ascot in July. He was then mid-division in two more 21-runner handicaps before calling it a day for 2020. If ready first up again, will be involved off 1lb lower than LTO.

Muscika was a 33/1 winner at York back on October and although he was beaten by four lengths on his subsequent step up to Class 2, he wasn't disgraced. He was beaten by a similar margin 17 days ago on his seasonal reappearance but is expected to go better with that run under his belt, as he did last season.

Queens Order struggled higher than Class 3 last term, but ended the season with two good runs below this level, losing and then winning by narrow margins. Now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, which was a career-best effort, this looks tough up in class.

Your first 30 days for just £1

King of Stars was 0 from 9 before the switch tot he Appleby yard for whom he is now 3 from 7, including landing a C4 5f handicap at Bath last week. This is clearly tougher and he carries a penalty for that win last week but is definitely in form and looks like an improver.

Ginger Jam is the Geegeez 2021 profile horse in the field. His career record of 7 from 19, includes 5 from 5 over course and distance as highlighted by subscriber Nigel aka N17, which would make him of serious interest, but Nigel does say that he's to be backed at Classes 4 to 6, as that's where he has run those five races at. He's actually 1 from 4 at Class 4 overall, by virtue of a C&D win here two starts ago off a mark of 80. He goes off 83 here and is 0/2 higher than Class 4 and I expect a first Beverley defeat for him.

Victory Angel won a Class 3 at Musselburgh off 79 five starts ago but has struggled since. He's coming back down in the weights and should, therefore, be more competitive here. He does go well when turned back out quite quickly by is 2/22 off a mark over 80.

Music Society won the Ayr Bronze Cup almost 19 months ago as the culmination of a run of form that saw him win three time and finish second twice inside six outings. His mark went from 81 to 86 after that Ayr win and he hasn't managed to score again in nine efforts since. He was a runner-up at Haydock off a mark a pound higher than today and he's now 2lbs lower than that Ayr win, so is well weighted here. My main concern with him is the 180 day absence as he has failed to make the frame in four runs after four months or more off track.

Saluti won here at Beverley over course and distance last August but is now somewhere 5lbs lower. This, however, is two grades higher and he did only get home by a nose in a race where the form hasn't really panned out (field is 1/34 since). He has had a couple of C4 sharpeners on the A/W already this season, but has been well held in both and I'd be looking elsewhere today.

Nibras Again is a solid consistent performer with a 40% place record after nearly 50 runs, but he doesn't win often enough, as typified by his recent form of 33133. Only the first of those was on turf and his last win on grass was here over C&D in July. He won a Class 5 handicap by a nose off 66 that day and a mark of 75 here means he's have to do much better to be involved.

So, we know that Ginger Jam is an excellent 5 from 5 over C&D, but we've since discovered that he hasn't won at this grade of racing before meaning he's not as well suited as we thought he might be. This will no doubt be apparent on Instant Expert, which will show us who really is best suited...

In fairness, Ginger Jam still looks fine above, but the class thing is a concern. Several of these will handle the ground well enough, Muscika has three wins at this level, Ginger Jam is undoubtedly the horses for courses runner and has a good record at the trip, as does Nibras Again with others also having lots of green. Nibras Again, however, is 9lbs higher than his last win but a couple do race off marks lower than their last successes.

The draw stats are as follows for similar past races...

...and although stall 3 is low and stall 4 is high, there's actually no real discernible draw bias here, as shown by segmenting the field into thirds...

It's the blue line we use here...

So no bias, although from a profit perspective, the middle stalls are where the money has been made! As for race pace, it's probably what you'd expect over 5f on quick ground ie get out quick and stay in front...

And when we combine pace and draw...

...it still says you want to be leading, but the middle stalls have become less attractive, so now let's add our horses' previous running styles to that heat map to see how we think it might unfold...

...and the suggestion is that King of Stars will attempt to make all from the widest berth. He has made the made three times and raced prominently once in his last four and hasn't finished out of the first four home, so it's a clear tactic that has served him well.

Summary

The two I like most here would be Jawwaal and King of Stars. The former goes well first up and although conceding weight all round, is still a pound lower than LTO and drops in class, whilst the latter is in great form since moving yards and is a front-running improver.

I'm really struggling to split the pair, but I'm siding with King of Stars over Jawwaal and both are currently priced at 5/1 in a contest so tight that the bookies have five horses at 5/1 or 11/2. As for a third horse, I think there could be a bit of an upset with the longest priced horses possibly squeezing in. I have a marginal preference for the 12/1 Muscika over the 14/1 Music Society, but neither would be a bad E/W bet.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.