Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 13th December 2021

Pace is an often overlooked/under-rated facet of UK racing betting, but we feel it's that important that we make the PACE tab on our racecards totally free to ALL readers for ALL races every Sunday and Monday, enabling readers to make a reasonable assumption as to how a race will unfold even before it starts. It is, of course, also available for the following free races of the day from Chelmsford...

  • 1.15 Chelmsford
  • 2.45 Chelmsford
  • 4.15 Chelmsford

The middle one of that trio looks the best on paper, so let's take a quick look at the 2.45 Chelmsford, shall we? It's a 7-runner, Class 3, 6f, 3yo+ A/W handicap on standard polytrack. It's worth £6,210 and that will go to one of these...

Only three of these (Sir Rodneyredblood, Fauvette & Mount Mogan) have won in their recent formlines, but all three have multiple wins with the first named probably the form horse here. Top weight Repartee drops down from Class 2 for his yard debut, whilst all bar two (Huraiz & Mount Mogan) of his rivals are stepping up in class. All seven are previous winners over today's trips with three of them (Sir Rodneyredblood, Cooperation & Fauvette) having won over course and distance.

Repartee hasn't raced for four months, Cooperation ran just over a month ago and the other five have only been off the track for 11-18 days. Cooperation is the sole 3 yr old racing against half a dozen 4 yr olds and we've not much positivity on trainer/jockey form icons, other than Huraiz's rider having a good record at this track.

At this stage, I think I'd like to be looking at Fauvette, Restless Endeavour and Sir Rodneyredblood for my winner, but we can check how they've all ran under similar conditions, courtesy of Instant Expert...

...where the three I highlighted at stage 1 are the only ones other than Cooperation with any green. Sir Rodneyredblood is clearly an A/W specialist and is probably the one to beat based on those figures, but over 6f here at Chelmsford, the draw and race tactics will play a massive part in proceedings, so let's now assess...

...the draw...

...tells us that stall 1 is the best place to be for win & place stats with stall 2 the best of the rest for win purposes. This could be good news for Fauvette and possibly Huraiz, especially if they run in a way that will make the most of that draw. We'll find out the best approach by looking at...

...the pace...

...which as expected here at Chelmsford, tend to favour those setting the pace and based on this field's recent runs...

...doesn't help those in the low stalls, but should definitely suit Restless Endeavour and Sir Rodneyredblood from my initial three, along with Repartee. And when we combine pace with draw, here's our unique heat map that predicts how they'll break out...

...which is essentially a bird's eye view of how we see the race in the early stages.

Summary

The above should have been a quick read, because that's the speed at which you should be able to work through a race. After the above, here's where I'm at...

I initially liked Fauvette, Restless Endeavour and Sir Rodneyredblood after looking at the card, I added Cooperation to the mix after Instant Expert. Fauvetter and Huraiz were favoured by the draw, but hindered by their pace profiles, so neither gained anything there. Restless Endeavour and Sir Rodneyredblood from my original trio were best suited on pace, as was Repartee and based on the pace/draw heat map, they're the three I want to go with.

Of those three, I'd have Repartee as least likely to win, making it between Restless Endeavour and Sir Rodneyredblood. This pair met here on November 25th over 5f where the latter beat the former by 1.5 lengths with Restless Endeavour carrying 4lbs more than Sir Rodneyredblood. But the latter/winner is now 6lbs worse off here and I suspect that might just be enough to turn things around.

Which means I'm going Restless Endeavour / Sir Rodneyredblood / Repartee and the bookies have them at 4/1, 7/2 and a huge 18/1. We're only getting 2 places here, of course, so my play is a win bet on Restless Endeavour at 4's, although if you can get a reasonable price on the exchanges for three places, a small punt on Repartee might be interesting.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.