Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 13th October 2021

Wednesday's free feature is the Trainer Statistics report, which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

In addition to this, we also have our usual selection of free races each day and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Punchestown
  • 3.05 Bath
  • 3.30 Punchestown
  • 3.58 Wetherby
  • 8.00 Kempton

And I think we'll head to Yorkshire for the 3.58 Wetherby, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over three miles on good ground for a first prize of £4,956...

From the racecard...

RECENT FORM : Native Fighter & Catchmeifyoucan both come here on good nick with two wins and two places each from their last four outings.

CLASS : Innisfree Lad & Native Fighter are down one level, whilst Catchmeifyoucan & Da Vinci Hand both step up from C4

COURSE/DISTANCE: Only Teescomponents Lad has won here before, whilst Innisfree Lad and Catchmeifyoucan have both scored at 3m.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Half the field have raced in the last 3 to 7 or so weeks, but Da Vinci Hand (119 days), Bootlegger (162d), Innisfree Lad (178d) and Flight Deck (235d) might all need the run and the last three of those four weren't in great form when last seen.

From Instant Expert...

Native Fighter is the obvious standout on win percentages, whilst Teescomponents Lad is the only other one with at least one win in each column. As for place form...

...Teescomponent Lad doesn't look quite as strong as before, but The Bull McCabe, Innisfree Lad and Catchmeifyoucan join the party at this point. We've eight runners, so this is useful if we fancy an E/W selection or two.

Pace Analysis...

What we see here is that leaders are the most successful, albeit from a smaller sample size than prominent/held-up runners and I'd be inclined to suggest that I'd rather be on a hold-up rather than a leading horse here. The mid-division win stats aren't wholly reliable off just 8 runners, but with four making the frame, that's interesting. Essentially we're saying that not racing prominently or leading have made the frame 16 times from 39 ie 41%, so I'd probably want a hold-up horse here or a leader for win purposes and one from mid-div backwards for the places.

And here's how these horses have raced in their last four outings...

I think it's fair to say that The Bull McCabe and Teescomponents Lad are likeliest to set the pace here with Innisfree Lad the one to fulfil the role of prominent runner. Flight Deck will probably sit next in the line, whilst the other four are all very likely to be waited with.

Based on the pace data above, I'd say that only Innisfree Lad and Flight Deck would be the ones at a disadvantage.

Summary

Straightaway without going into too much depth (I do overegg the pudding some times!), I'm going to discard all four runners coming back from a break because here at Wetherby in handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, those with a run in the last 90 days are 104 from 1028 = 10.12% SR, but those off track for more than 90 days only have a 6.22% strike rate. And of those that raced in the last ninety days, those placed first or second last time out have made the frame on 101 of 223 runs (45.29%), winning 34 (15.2%) of them. LTO winners have 57 places from 113 (50.44%) including 21 wins (18.58%).

Native Fighter is the only LTO winner here, he drops in class now, has raced recently, was the standout on Instant Expert (win) and is likely to be held up. He's ticking all the boxes for me and at 7/1 with Bet365, he could well be overpriced. He's my pick here.

That leaves me with...

  • Teescomponent Lad, a former course winner, a runner-up beaten by just 0.75 lengths after a 138 day break LTO, good record at this level but would prefer it softer.
  • The Bull McCabe, in good consistent form, yard and jockey do well here, he scored well on place stats via Instant Expert and will look to set the pace
  • Catchmeifyoucan, two wins from four, has won at this trip, yard/jockey are in good nick, was second best on IE and will be waited with, steps up in class, though.

I don't think there's much between the three, but I'd probably say Catchmeifyoucan/The Bull McCabe/Teescomponent Lad if pushed to make a decision. All three could easily make the frame here and at odds of 13/2, 13/2 and 9/2, they're unsurprisingly in the top five of the betting. All are too short for me to fancy an E/W punt, though.

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