Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 13th September 2021

Monday is pace day at Geegeez, where we open up the pace tab to ALL readers for ALL races, including our full free races of the day, which will be...

  • 3.05 Thirsk
  • 5.30 Brighton
  • 6.15 Kempton
  • 7.15 Kempton

And I think the second of that quartet interests me the most, the 5.30 Brighton, a seven-runner sprint over 5f 60yds (5.27f?) on good to firm (good in places) ground. It's a lowly Class 6 handicap for 3yo+ horses and the modest sum of £2,700 will go to one of these...

Somewhat surprisingly for a race at this level, five of the seven have won at least once in their last five outings and two of them won last time out. Those two, Atty's Edge and Sir Rodneyredblood also both drop down in class here, as does Cappananty Con. All seven have won a sprint at some point, whilst King Crimson, Essaka and Ocean Wilde are former course and distance winners.

All seven have had at least one run in the last four weeks with Ocean Wilde rested for just seven days, whilst Essaka ran at Bath on Saturday. Not much to say about trainer form, other than that the handlers of We're Reunited and Cappananty Con could do with a winner or two and that Ocean Wilde's yard seems in decent nick. Jockey-wise, there are plenty of indicators. Atty's Edge and Cappananty Con are negatives on both recent form and long-term course records, whilst those aboard Sir Rodneyredblood, Essaka, Ocean Wilde and King Crimson have all done well here in the past, although the latter is on a run of one win in 37 (winless in 20).

Atty's Edge is probably in the best run of form in his life so far with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last five outings, but he's now back to his career-high mark of 65, up 3lbs for only winning by a neck and that might make him vulnerable here.

We're Reunited was a winner four starts ago at Bath and was only headed with half a furlong to run at Chepstow last time out, eventually finishing third beaten by just a neck and a head.. Another run to that level puts him in with a shout of making the frame again.

Sir Rodneyredblood is 4 from 15 since the start of February and won at Lingfield (AW, 5f) by a neck at a higher grade last time out off a mark of 70. He's rated 7lbs lower on turf and although he's 0 from 7 in this sphere, he's in good form, is well weighted and drops in class. Every chance of breaking his flat duck here.

King Crimson absolutely loves it here and has 4 wins and 2 places from 8 efforts over course and distance, but he's 3lbs higher than when touched off by a shorthead here two starts ago and runs off the same mark as when 3rd of 8 last time out. Cheekpieces are back on here to eke more out, so who knows?

Cappananty Con is just 1 from 22 on turf and is 9lbs worse off than that run, but his mark is dropping with each race. The bare 5th of 7th result from LTO doesn't tell the full story, as he was only a length and three quarters behind the winner Atty's Edge and with him now being 4lbs better with the winner, could feasibly reverse that result, not that I expect him to win.

Essaka has a stack of positive stats behind him (see below), but he hasn't won any of 26 races since scoring at Brighton over 27 months ago. He's a former course and distance winner on a near career-low mark, but he's still not for me based on general form and the fact that he was beaten by 3.5 lengths off this mark last time out.

Ocean Wilde won here over course and distance two starts ago in a rare run at a trip shorter than 7f. He was pushed along to win by half a length that day off a mark just 2lbs lower than today, so with a bit of improvement, he could have a say in proceedings.

This field has 41 wins between them including several over course and distance. Instant Expert is our easy guide to who has performed best under expected conditions...

On the going, runners 2, 3, 6 and 7 have poor records, whilst 3 and 7 aren't great at Class 6. In fact Sir Rodneyredblood (#3) has a line of red, because of his 0 from 7 record on the flat, but that doesn't mean he can't win here. Essaka (#7), however, seems to have tried these conditions more than enough times without success and his only saving grace is his record on this track.

On a positive note, King Crimson looks the pick of the bunch on relevant stats and we know he loves this track/trip. Ocean Wilde & Atty's Edge also carry more positive than negative vibes here.

There's not a great deal in the draw here...

...although stalls 2 to 4 would have a slight edge from a win perspective and stalls 2 & 3 for the places. So, if pushed, I'd probably want a low-ish draw, but not on the rail : got of Ocean Wilde, Atty's Edge & King Crimson. That said, it's pointless getting a good draw if you don't use it to your advantage and race positioning aka pace is vital here. Pace is or feature of the day, so let's take a closer look at it.

The Geegeez course guide says...The course features a left-hand dog leg turn which is said to include one of the steepest descents in the world of racing. The descent, combined with testing undulating turf, guarantees one of the trickiest rides in the UK for jockeys. The rolling nature of the course means Brighton favours small, agile types; especially front runners...so that would suggest horses that lead or run prominently would be the ones to be on. A quick check of the actual stats tells me...

...that this is definitely the case and that the further forward you run, the better your chances. So ideally we're looking for a lowish draw and an average pace score of 3 or more and we've got over the last three runs from these seven horses is...

...horses in stalls 4, 1 and 5 scoring the highest on pace. What I expect might happen here in that with the runners in stalls 2 and 3 not tending to kick on at the start, that those in 1, 4 and 5 will almost go three abreast and try to have their own race.

If we mixed the draw data with the above pace stats, we get a heat map like this...

...which would back my assertion that these are the three likeliest to take it on and are drawn suitably well to do so.

Summary

It's definitely between King Crimson, Sir Rodneyredblood and We're Reunited for me here.

King Crimson is the course and distance specialist and was only beaten by a short head off todays mark the last time he tackled this track and trip. Cheekpieces are on to try and get more from him, his pace/draw is excellent but he is 3lbs higher than that defeat.

Sir Rodneyredblood has been in great nick for most of the last seven months and is really well weighted to win here, but is 0 from 7 on turf without even making the frame.

We're Reunited has won recently, wasn't far adrift last time out but is on the highest mark he has been for well over a year. Plus he might run at Bath on Sunday afternoon.

There's pros and cons to all three, but King Crimson has fewer red marks against him on my notes, so I'll take him to beat Sir Rodneyredblood here. We're Reunited should be best of the rest for tricast/trifecta purposes.

I completed the above at 3.30pm Sunday, prior to We're Reunited's possible appearance at Bath. He did actually run and was a good third at 18/1. I still think he could go well here, but probably won't run. If not running, then maybe Cappananty Con for third, based on pace and his run LTO? No prices were offered at 4.05pm, I'll add them later.

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