Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 14th July 2021

Happy Bastille Day to our French readers or plain old Wednesday to the rest of us. Feature of the day is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our free races of the day are as follows...

  • 1.00 Lingfield
  • 1.20 Uttoxeter
  • 2.55 Catterick
  • 4.55 Killarney
  • 6.25 Killarney
  • 8.05 Yarmouth

I think we'll take a trip to the seaside, because the 5 yr course handicap figures on my Trainer Stats report at Yarmouth throw up a couple of runners worth at least a second glance...

Sir Mark Prescott's figures at this venue are fantastic and he runs the 3 yr old colt Jebel Dukhan in the 5.00 Yarmouth, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+, Maiden Handicap over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground for a tilt at a prize of £3,510...

In fact, Sir Mark's figures in handicaps here since the start of 2017 stand at 14 wins from 31 (45.2% SR, A/E 1.40) and they include of relevance to this race...

  • 14/27 (51.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/20 (60%) with males
  • 8/20 (40%) on good to firm
  • 7/18 (38.9%) at Class 5
  • 8/15 (53.3%) were placed LTO
  • 5/9 (55.6%) in July
  • 3/8 (37.5%) over 1m1f to 1m2f
  • and 2/4 (50%) with Ryan Tate in the saddle.

This is a maiden handicap, so none of the field have won a race yet, but Jebel Dukhan's 60% place strike rate (3 from 5) is the best on offer here and he has been placed in three of his last four, including a runner-up finish last time out. That was at Hamilton over 9.2 furlongs in this grade off a pound higher than today. He led, but looked awkward at the head of affairs and was caught with a furlong to go. First time blinkers will be applied today in a bid to settle him more and if they have the desired effect, he's already proved he's got something about him.

As he hasn't won a race, the place version of Instant Expert is more relevant here...

...and those figures are encouraging. He's drawn in stall 7 of 9 which looks to be in a decent spot...

...as higher draws (particularly stalls 5 to 8) seem to fare best, whilst the pace here at Yarmouth seems to favour hold-up horses...

...although prominent racers win slightly more than their fair share of races and with a 41.4% record, are the best in terms of making the frame. As for Jebel Dukhan, his last four runs have seen one hold-up run, two prominent rides and one where he led, giving up a pace/draw mark-up of...

That's not ideal, but recent history says he's 50% prominent and 50% led/hold-up, so there's every chance he might lead or be held up too.

*

Then 95 minutes later, Team Crisford send Noble Patron out to contest the 6.35 Yarmouth, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap for Pro-Am female jockeys over 7f on good to firm ground, where the top prize is £4,347...

Over the last four years, the Crisford stable has a 50% strike rate in Yarmouth handicaps, winning six of the dozen recent attempts, that have included of relevance here...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) at Class 4
  • 5/8 (62.%) on good to firm
  • 4/9 (44.4%) with males
  • 3/7 (42.9%) were placed LTO
  • 3/5 (60%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • and 2/2 (100%) in July.

These are also very encouraging numbers as Noble Patron now makes a handicap debut after finishing third in three of his four runs this season. I wouldn't say he's been leniently treated with an opening mark of 79 and the step down in trip is a little surprising, but not entirely unexpected. He hasn't really seen races out at 1m/1m0.5f, fading late on in most outings. Yet to win any of five starts, once again, the place side of Instant Expert should tell us more about him...

The pace of the ground and the class shouldn't be a factor here, but his only run over 7f was his sole 2yo start when beaten by nearly 14 lengths on debut last August. He's drawn in stall 4 here, which is right in the sector of the draw (stalls 3 to 6) you'd want to be in...

...whilst the draw stats say that leading is the best policy, but prominent runners also hold their own here...

Noble Patron has raced in mid-division in two of his last four races, but has led in the other two, giving him a pace average score of 3.00 (= prominent) and an average pace/draw make-up as follows...

...although a continuation of his last two mid-div runs wouldn't be beneficial, he does have that ability to lead and that would be his best chance here, if the weight isn't too much.

Summary

I like Jebel Dukhan more than I like Noble Patron and I don't think the latter wins here and I'd not be surprised if he ends up with more runners ahead of him than behind him, so he's a no from me, especially at 4/1.

Jebel Dukhan, on the other hand, has a good place strike record, scored well on Instant Expert, is well drawn and this type of race is one his yard have been successful in. He's currently 6/1 with Bet365 and if the blinkers steady him (he hit the rail last time) as hoped, those odds might prove generous. I'm not massively confident about his composure, but I'm happy to risk a quid or two on him here.

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