Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 14th September 2021

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free feature and it's a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. Here is the view for Tuesday...

The top two would be the ones I'd interested in exploring, as they're largely green. One hasn't raced in tomorrow's class before and the other hasn't fared well in that size of field, but looks good otherwise.

In addition to this free report, we've also got a selection of open-access racecards for you...

  • 1.35 Fontwell
  • 2.30 Punchestown
  • 2.55 Yarmouth
  • 3.20 Redcar
  • 4.00 Yarmouth

And as the race featuring the top raked horse on The Shortlist is also one of our free races, it'd be rude not to look at the 2.55 Yarmouth, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over 7f on Good (firmer in places) ground. The prize is £8,100 and will go to one of...

Shortlist horse Farhh To Shy and Global Esteem look the ones to beat on recent results, but both are stepping up in class, one and two grades respectively, whilst Maxi Boy and Percy's Lad come down from Class 2. Corvair has already won at this trip and Maxi Boy, Global Esteem & Equitation are previous Yarmouth winners, whilst both Dazzling Dan and Farhh To Shy have both scored on this 7f straight.

We've a pair of 3 yr olds (Percy's Lad & Farhh To Shy) getting a 4lb weight allowance for their age an plenty of trainers with positive stats about them (14 30 C1 C5). On the jockey front, Rossa Ryan (Maxi Boy) is in good recent form and Marco Ghiani has done well at this venue, but both Shane Kelly (Dazzling Dan) and Charles Bishop (Percy's Lad) have struggled recently and the latter has a poor Yarmouth record.

At this point, I'm thinking that the likes of Farhh To Shy & Global Esteem might be the ones to best, as they bring the best form to the table, but Maxi Boy might be a big danger.

Corvair bears top weight here and is only a pound lower than when beaten by 6 lengths as 4th of 7 at Redcar last time out. In fact after starting his career 22111, he is winless in nine and he hasn't made the frame in any of his seven runs on turf. He's not for me here.

Dazzling Dan started the season well with a class, course and distance success here in late-April followed by making the frame in three consecutive 11-runner handicaps. Since then he has been 5th of 6 and last of 13, beaten by 12.5 lengths last time out. Still only a pound lighter here, he's 3lbs higher than that last win and recent form is off-putting.

Maxi Boy won a 6f, Class 3, Novice race on debut in May 2019, but has only raced 10 times since, failing to win any, but ws beaten by less than 2 lengths last time out and is a pound lighter and a class lower today, so making the frame might not be beyond him here.

Percy's Lad is certainly not having the same joy as a 3yo as he had last year when his three outings saw him open with two wins before finishing 2nd of 13, beaten by just a length in the 7f, Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury. if truth be told, that race hasn't really panned out too well, generating just four Class 3 wins from 41 subsequent runs, including Percy's Lad's 6th of 7, last of 4 and 10th of 11. In his defence, the first two of the three 2021 runs were in Listed company before trying a Class 2 handicap, so this is a drop in class, but he doesn't inspire confidence.

Farhh To Shy is our Shortlist runner and this 3yr old filly never raced as a 2yo. She has four runs under her belt this term, though, all here at Yarmouth with the first three over 6f before stepping up to today's trip last time out. She was 5th of 8 (8.5 lengths) in a Class 5 maiden, then she won a Class 5 Novice race by 1.75L, before going down by a short head in a similar race a fortnight later. her last effort saw her step up in class and trip to land a Class 4 over 7f on handicap debut here and she's up in class again and has been raised 5lbs which makes life tougher but not impossible.

Global Esteem was possibly in his best form before taking a two month break, so it'll be interesting to see if he picks where he left off after a win over a mile (C4) at Ascot in July a week before running 2nd of 7 at Newbury, despite losing a shoe and being headed in the last of the seven furlongs. He's up two classes here but off the same mark, so like the one above, it's tough but not impossible and his jockey takes a useful 5lbs off, effectively taking him back to his last winning mark prior to this season and only 3lbs worse than his win two starts ago. He'd welcome some unlikely rain, though.

Equitation has won just 4 of 37 starts and has raced 18 times since he last won a little over two years ago. That was a Class 4 handicap with today's jockey on board and despite his terrible form, he's only 7lbs better off than he was 2 yrs ago. He has won here over 6f, but his 1 in 18 record at Class 3 isn't good. That said, he has made the frame in 7 of them and with Marco Ghiani (8 from 41 in hcps here for 2020/21) on board, he might yet get involved.

After this stage, Maxi Boy and Equitation might also enter the calculations, so let's look at relevant form via Instant Expert...

As you'd expect based upon The Shortlist that I started with, Farhh To Shy catches the eye here and it's apparent that all who've tackled this track before have done well enough to win here. Corvair & Maxi Boy are worries on the going with the former being poor in this grade, as is Equitation. Only two have own over 7f on turf with Maxi Boy having the worst record. Dazzling Dan, Farhh To Shy and Global Esteem all run off marks higher than their last flat win, but Equitation looks really well weighted for a possible return to form.

He's also drawn in stall 1 with Global Esteem drawn the other side of the line-up and the draw stats suggest that...

...those drawn 3 to 6 (Farhh to Shy, Maxi Boy, Dazzling Dan & Percy's Lad) might be favoured, whilst from a place perspective, stalls 6 & 7 do well, bringing Global Esteem into the mix too. As ever in these trappy affairs, race tactics can be vital and we cover this via the pace tab and the stats there show us that...

...that whilst those racing prominently or further back only fare slightly worse than par expectation (IV of 0.81 to 0.96), the place to be is up top from both a win and place perspective, which is great news for the likes of Global Esteem who is a confirmed front runner, but not so good for hold-up horse Dazzling Dan.

Sometimes it's better to see a visual representation than just loads of numbers, so we can combine those two charts above into a simple traffic light basis combo that we simply call the pace/draw heat map...

...which is actually very green today, suggesting you can win from a host of pace/draw combos, the best being the high drawn leader followed by the mid-drawn prominent horse and so on, whilst the bottom right four sectors are best for the places...

As we already know the draw for this race, we can easily slot our runners into those heatmaps, because we also log the running style(s) of every runner and when we combine them and arrange them in draw order, we get this...

...based on their last three outings. Global Esteem looks like he'll take it on from the start, but Farhh To Shy, Maxi Boy and Percy's lad are all well positioned to get involved and I think that these four are the ones to focus on.

Summary

Global Esteem comes here in good nick, was unlucky losing a shoe LTO and although up in class looks like he might well have the run of the race and he's going to be in my top two. Of the other three I prefer Shortlist horse Farhh To Shy over the other two for similar reasons to Global Esteem. She might well have her work cut out catching the pacemaker and for that reason, I'm not sure she's a 7/4 bet for me, so I'm going to side with Global Esteem for a bit of value at 9/2.

Of the other pair, they're much of a muchness, I'd say, but the 4/1 Maxi Boy will probably be closer to the pace than the 9/1 Percy's Lad, so I'll put them in that order.

Finally, the other The Shortlist horse I mentioned, Courtandbould looks up against it in a 3-runner chase and as let down by his jumping LTO, so I'll leave him well alone. Former Geegeez horse Swaffham Bulbeck looks the one to beat there.

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