Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 15th December 2021

Wednesday's free GOLD feature is the excellent Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

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I'm only really interested in the handicap data on the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which when combined with my fairly strict selection criteria often means that I have little or no qualifiers to consider. Wednesday, sadly, is a prime example as I only have qualifiers on the course 1 year handicap tab, as follows...

Thankfully, we also have the following 'free' races of the day to offer you...

  • 12.10 Lingfield
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 5.00 Dundalk
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

If I'm totally honest with you, none of those float my boat either, so I'm going off-piste today and offering you a bonus race and I think that should be whatever is the 'best' race available. A quick look shows that only one UK race on Wednesday is better than Class 3 and that's the 2.00 Newbury, an 8-runner, Listed, 4yo+ Mares' Chase over 3m (after rail movement) on Good To Soft ground, where the following horses will go left handed and tackle 18 fences in the hope of landing the £15,661 prize...

As you'd expect of a Class 1 field, there's plenty of good recent form on show, with only Casablanca Mix and Legends Gold winless in five starts and sadly they're the only two to have fallen in their last five. Silver Forever has won four of five and along with fellow hat-trick seeker Chilli Filli, are the only two LTO winners on display. The former is actually stepping up two classes here, as is Hawthorn Cottage, whilst Legends Gold also moves up a level.

Bridge Native, Casablanca Mix and Win My Wings are the only ones without a win at or around today's 2m7f-3m trip and the first two named are probably arriving in the worst form of the eight runners. Silver Forever is best off at the weights and is the only previous course winner, having scored here over course and distance last time out. That was 41 days ago and that's the longest any of these have waited since their last outing with the other seven having raced in the last 17 to 35 days.

At this point, I'm already prepared to dismiss the chances of Bridge Native on form/no win at the trip and also Casablanca Mix for the same reasons, plus I've reservations about Hawthorn Cottage stepping up two classes after a 19 length defeat as last home of four most recently. So I'm going to prune the field down to five runners...

Chilli Filli won one of her two bumpers, made the frame on 5 of 8 (won 2) over hurdles but has already won 4 of 9 over fences with an additional place finish thrown in. She won a 3m Listed chase at Perth (Momella also ran) on St George's Day before resting for 202 days prior to landing a 3m1f Listed Chase at Market Rasen five weeks ago where she beat Momella, Casablanca Mix & Win My Wings). her record in (non-Novice) Listed chases reads 12F11 and she gets 3m readily. Definite shortlist material.

Momella doesn't quite have the same profile as the one above, but she's more than useful with a 56% career place strike rate, winning 1-in-3 overall including a Listed contest three starts ago, but has run into Chilli Filli on her last two outings, going down by 46 lengths (admittedly eased when beaten) and then by just 2 lengths LTO. They meet again on equal terms, so it's hard to see her avenging those defeats but she shouldn't be too far adrift.

Legends Gold hasn't yet completely managed to transfer her excellent (4 wins plus 3 places from 9) hurdles form over tot he bigger obstacles, but she has made the frame in half of her six efforts, winning once (a Class 4 Novice on chase debut Oct'20) She ended last summer as a runner-up in a 14-runner 3m4f Class 3 contest at Ffos Las before returning to action five weeks ago at Bangor to finish 3rd of 14, beaten by just over 5 lengths in a 3m Class 2 handicap after being off track for 223 days. She's entitled to improve for that run, but whether she can make the leap to challenge at Listed class is under review.

Silver Forever completes my five 'possibles' and she comes here looking like the one to beat based pourely on results. She made her debut in November 2018 and by the time we hit the second week of January 2020, she had finished 1312 in four bumpers (the defeats were in Listed races, so no disgrace) and 1131 over hurdles (the last two at Listed class). So never out of the frame in eight starts, winning five times. She was then off track for 670 days prior to reappearing here over course and distance six weeks ago when she won a 2-horse race by six lengths on her chase debut receiving 7lbs in weight from the other 10/11 jt fav. That was a Class 3 contest, so more required here, but she is proven at Listed class in other spheres. The only real question marks revolve around whether that race has taken much out of her and that it was also her only run beyond 2m4f.

At this point, I'd have to say that Silver Forever handles a more competitive race than LTO and can step up in class, then she looks the one to beat with Chilli Filli probably next best, but let's look at the five runners' overall NH form via Instant Expert...

...whilst pretty much backs up my idea of the 1-2, whilst over fences...

...Chilli Filli looks even stronger than her general overall record. Momella has some amber, but there's nothing much to get excited about away from the suggested pair. The pace scores from these runners' last four outings suggests that there'll not be much hanging about today...

...which isn't probably a bed plan, as those racing up with the pace or leading have done very well...

...whilst the hold-up scores might give some confidence to Win My Wings, but I fear she's the weakest of my five.

Summary

From start to finish the pairing of Silver Forever and Chilli Filli have ticked all the boxes and I find it difficult to look beyond those two as my first two home. I had them in that order on my own workings and was expecting to see prices around 2/1 and 15/4 respectively and I'm not too far out with the bookies going 15/8 and 10/3 from the first two (Bet65 & Hills) to show their hand.

Silver Forever's 15/8 is 94% of my expected/hoped for odds, whilst Chilli's 10/3 is an 88% ratio, so the fav is looking like the best value. I'm not normally a fan of backing sub-2/1 shots, but 15/8 might end up being a good price, whilst I've my fingers crossed for the exacta/forecast.

Those wanting to play the trifecta/tricast would probably want to add the 13/2 third fav Momella into the mix. She's too short for me as an E/W bet, but she was third best on my figures, it's just boringly coincidental that my 1-2-3 is the bookies' 1-2-3, but hey, they can'ty always be wrong, can they? 😉

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