Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 15th November 2021

The racecard PACE tab is Monday's free feature and this will be available to ALL readers for ALL races, including the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 2.45 Plumpton
  • 3.00 Leicester

Not much racing to go at on Monday (can't remember such a sparse weekday for), but we'll take a look at the first of those two races above, the 2.45 Plumpton, which is a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4½f on good ground. They'll go left handed and tackle 12 hurdles in a bid to land the £3,594 first prize and here's the card...

Manning Estate is 3lbs lower than his last win, achieved back in February 2020 over 3m½f at Doncaster, but hasn't really run well in seven starts since, failing to make the frame in any and going down by an average 34 lengths each race and his yard in 0/23 in the last month.

Soldier On Parade is an OK hurdler, I suppose and is often there or thereabouts, but doesn't seem to be able to win many. His results show a lack of consistency and if he isn't fairly close to the winner, he's invariably well off the pace, as shown when 5th of 6 last time out, beaten by more than 65 lengths.

Glashas Peak is the only mare in the race and she has yet to make the frame after seven attempts (2 X NHF, 5 x hrd). She was going well enough last time out here at Plumpton, though, but was brought down at the 9th. Others hold more appeal here.

Jens Boy tends to lead or race prominently before running out of steam and finds little late on, but has 2 wins and 2 places from 13 efforts over hurdles.
Ran well here at Plumpton LTO, when although only 4th of 12, was less than 2.5 lengths off the pace, clearly benefiting from not being asked to run 3m+. Down another half furlong here, could very well step forward again.

Cremant has made the frame in each of his last three starts, all off a mark of 107 and now 2lbs lower here, you'd expect him to be involved once again. A former Irish PTP winner, he did also win over hurdles around this time last year. Trip is ideal, be he'd probably have wanted it softer.

Mr Yeats probably looks the one to beat in a modest contest, but only got off the mark at the 11th time of asking when winning at Wincanton a month ago in a Class 4 handicap. He then dropped a class but went up 3lbs and won again at Huntingdon six days ago and he's now back up in class and up 7lbs for that second win. That definitely makes life tougher, but he could be the one here.

Harry Hazard hasn't made the frame in any of his eight previous starts, hasn't raced since 22nd October 2020 (only 3 runs in last 31 months), hasn't got within 17 lengths of a winner and races from outside the handicap here. He also makes a yard debut for a trainer with 2 wins from 40 since the start of April. As for the positives? I'm sure he's a lovely horse.

We've a modest bunch here who made the frame just 27 times from 102 attempts (26.%), winning just 11 (10.8%) of them, but that's across all spheres. Instant Expert tells us how they've performed in similar conditions to today's race...

As expected, the win percentages aren't great, but Mr Yeats and Jens Boy were probably the two to take from that graphic, whilst based on place form, you'd probably add Cremant to that pair. The pace stats here suggest that mid-division or further back is the best place to launch a challenge from...

...although prominent runners do make the frame quite often. The one I thought stood out so far, Mr Yeats has raced in mid-div and as a hold-up horse in the two races he has won recently...

...so that should stand him in good stead here. Cremant who also looked good on Instant Expert is another who gets waited with, but Jen's Boy likes to lead. That said, he's down in trip and almost held on last time out.

Summary

A pretty modest race if truth be told and although has hasn't had much of a breather and he's up 7lbs, it's hard to see Mr Yeats not completing a fairly quick hat-trick. We're not getting rich at bet 365's 9/4 odds, but they're probably about right, if not a little long.

As for the place(s), I'm referring back to Instant Exert here and it's between Jens Boy and Cremant and I think the latter edges it on form, Instant Expert and pace. There's no disputing that he'd prefer the ground a bit softer but with Jens Boy not being guaranteed an easy lead with Soldier on Parade around, I'm going with the 9/2 Cremant as second best.

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