Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 15th October 2021

The Horses for Courses (H4C) report is Friday's free offering, showing the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

And here's what my H4C settings have generated for Friday...

We also have our selection of daily free races, of course, and they are set to be...

  • 2.30 Uttoxeter
  • 2.40 Redcar
  • 3.15 Redcar
  • 3.50 Redcar
  • 4.50 Uttoxeter
  • 5.45 Dundalk

And I'm going to consider the first of the three Flat races offered, the 2.40 Redcar, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Flat handicap over 1m6f. The prize is £4,482 and we're expecting Good to Soft ground that is good in places. I don't think much rain is forecast, so it should remain the quicker side of good to soft for this sextet...

None come here in sparking form, but Big Boy Bobby looks the pick on recent results  with four placed finishes on the bounce, whilst Glasses Up and/or Thai Terrier look weakest at this point. Both Mr Curioisity and Liberation Point drop down from Class 3 action last time around for this trappy contest of active runners, all seen in the last six weeks. The top four on the card are only separated by 3lbs in the eyes of the assessor.

Mr Curiosity bears top weight here and has been eased just a pound after a near six length defeat at this trip at Chester five weeks ago. He is down in class too, of course and whilst this son of Frankel is still relatively unexposed after just five starts, he'll need to up his game to win here.

Glasses Up, on the other hand, has raced 44 times in 40 months, winning seven times. His last win was at Musselburgh in July off a mark of 81 and he has come close off 84 and today's 85 in recent outings. A 2.5 length defeat LTO suggests more is needed off this mark and he'd probably need it to dry up some more.

Liberation Point was sixth on debut in December 2019 and has only raced four times since. Finishes of 212 showed he has some ability, but flopped at Leicester on heavy ground last time out. He should find this surface more to his liking and with first time cheekpieces, he could go well, assuming he stays the trip which is a half mile further than he has tried before.

Thai Terrier won over 2m1f at Carlisle at the end of May and although beaten in four efforts at 1m6f/2m since, has raced well in those contests, going down by an average of less than four lengths per race. A confirmed front runner, much will depend on whether he is able to impose himself from early in the piece. Chances, though.

Arctic Fox hasn't won in 13 attempts since landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2019, culminating in a win over 1m4f off a mark 7lbs higher than today. She was only narrowly beaten at Haydock last month, but was beaten and is still up a pound for that effort. She's better over shorter/quicker, but has won at higher levels than this.

Big Boy Bobby looks the form horse here and gets weight from all his rivals today. He has finished third at both classes 3 and 4 in his last two outings. Jockey Trevor Whelan rides him for the first time and based upon the Trainer/Jockey stats, that's a positive move for me. Ground and trip are unknowns here, but he's running as well if not better than his rivals here.

A look at relevant form under similar conditions via instant Expert doesn't yield much in terms of wins...

...but Glasses Up's 4 from 16 at this level is more than useful. His sole run here at Redcar is the field's entire input and he's actually at this trip. Thai Terrier hasn't fared as well at Class 4, but has made the frame twice, as seen in the place stats...

...where Glasses Up's Class 4 record really stands out now. The rest have such small sample sizes, it's difficult to draw a conclusion and unfortunately when we consider draw and pace, we're once again feeding off scraps.

Draw stats...

...would seem to suit stalls 1 & 2 ie Thai Terrier and Big Boy Bobby.

As for the pace analysis...

...hold up horses have struggled, but the other three styles have all done well enough with leaders coming out on top. This is how our field have run in their last four outings...

and I'm going to place them on the pace draw heat map to help assess their chances here.

Not many seem ideally placed, if truth be told. You might have spotted Mr Curiosity duplicated, he either runs prominently or is held up and I'm not sure either will help, whilst I've omitted Thai Terrier, as I've not a clue how he might after a sequence of styles reading 4123! Big Boy Bobby seems the obvious pick from that.

Summary

As this point, I should be advising you to cross this race off your list and move to the next, which is what I'd be doing if I wasn't writing the piece. That said, Racing Insights is NOT a tipping piece, so my conclusion here is that I won't be having a bet on it and that's totally acceptable. Never try to force a bet if you don't think there's one there.

If, however, I was doing a placepot or other multi-bet ticket, then it'd be Big Boy Bobby for me, he's the form horse, he gets weight all round and has the best pace/draw make-up in the race. There's no natural pace-setter here so it might be falsely run, another reason why I'd leave it alone and I'm not surprised to see my pick as one of three 3/1 co-favourites, even the market can't make a decision here!

Good Luck!

Chris

PS Liberation Point at 6/1 was the most interesting of the longer-priced runners for me.

 

 

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