All I say about Friday's race is that I'm glad I swerved it, horses running very differently to how they normally do made my analysis look silly at best.
So, to Saturday. Feature of the day is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, whilst our free races are...
- 3.05 Catterick
- 3.10 Ascot
- 3.20 Market Rasen
- 4.00 Ffos Las
- 4.05 Stratford
- 4.40 Stratford
And I think we'll go chasing in Lincolnshire with a quick look at the 3.20 Market Rasen, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase on good ground. The trip is officially 2m5f, but after a 234 yard rail movement, it's nearer 2m6½f...
On form, Francky du Berlais and Captain Tommy would look like the ones to beat, whilst Due Reward and Red Risk are less appealing. Both of those two have yet to win at this trip, just like Guy, but Francky du Berlais, Casablanca Mix and Gortroe Joe have won over this course and distance.
Gortroe Joe, Due Reward and Francky du Berlais are the only ones with a run in the last three months, whilst Red Risk and Casablanca Mix haven't been seen since the turn of the year.
Francky du Berlais also seems the one to beat on the Instant Expert wins stats too and there's a good splattering of green pretty much everywhere. Red Risk looks weakest here. I should temper the enthusiasm about Francky by mentioning that he's up 10lbs for winning here last time out and although bottom weight Guy has been eased a pound here, he's still 12lbs higher than his sole win to date.
As for the place stats...
Francky scores well again, but Casablanca Mix also catches the eye across the board whilst Captain Tommy's record at Class 2 and on good ground is very good. He's only 5lbs higher than his last win, but Casablanca runs off 143 here and was rated at 154 when she last won, even if it was in December 2019 when landing a Listed race by some 15 lengths at Aintree : she also won a Listed race here over 2m6.5f in the summer of 2019.
The pace stats tell us that...
...leaders then mid-division horses are the ones you want to be on from both a win and a place perspective and based on the way this group have run in their last four races...
...you'd have to say that this would be most advantageous for the likes of Gortroe Joe, Francky du Berlais and Guy.
That's a really quick run through today and that's actually how quickly a race could and should be assessed using the toolkit.
So where am I? Well on form/racecard summary, Instant Expert and pace, only one horse was ticking boxes every time and that was Francky du Berlais. He won a Grade 3 race here over course and distance last time out, some 7.5 lengths clear of his nearest rival, Exelerator Express, who himself won a Class 2 handicap by 12 lengths next time out.
I'm not surprised to see Francky as the favourite here, but 4/1 looks pretty generous, so I'll take a piece of that.
Gortroe Joe could well run a big race up front, having gone really well here over C&D last time out, when only caught late on on his return for a break. He'll come on for the run and should make the frame, although 7/1 is a bt short for me from an E/W perspective.
After those two, I'm probably looking at Casablanca Mix or Captain Tommy for trifecta/tricast purposes. The former edges it on past ability, but the latter is in better form, hasn't been off track as long and carries much less weight, so perhaps he shades it overall.