Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 16th September 2021

The INSTANT EXPERT Report is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards.

The reason? Its ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

This feature is FREE to Gold subscribers everyday and FREE to everyone every Thursday for every race including, of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.40 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Pontefract
  • 4.35 Pontefract
  • 4.55 Naas
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

The best of those is the second on the list, the 3.25 Pontefract, a 7-runner, Class 2, flat handicap for 3yo+ fillies over 6f on good to firm ground. The winner will receive almost £15.5k and is one of these...

Early indications from the bookies are that it's a four horse race between Crazy Luck, Silent Flame, Gale Force Maya and Ey Up It's Maggie. My own initial thoughts were that it was a three horse race, as the last of the bookie's four wasn't as good as the others, but let's have a proper look, shall we?

Gale Force Maya is the oldest here at 5 yrs old and has a decent enough record at 6 wins from 26. She has a win and two runner-up finishes from 3 efforts over course and distance winner and although well beaten last time out, has been in pretty good from this season. She has been the runner-up in this race in both 2019 and 2020 and will relish the quicker ground.

Zim Baby has had a bit of a break (45 days) since finishing 6th of 14 at this class/trip at Windsor LTO and has been eased a couple of pounds by the assessor, but although she was only beaten by less than three lengths LTO, she has struggled over the last few months. Her best form comes on ground with soft in the going description and this track might be too quick today.

Ey Up Its Maggie finished 321 in her first three outings, landing a soft ground 5f maiden at Catterick just over a year ago. Since then she has won just one of nine starts and was only 6th of 12 off today's mark in a lower grade last time out. She's 0/6 on Good or quicker ground and 2/6 on softer, suggesting that she too might find this a bit sharp.

Crazy Luck has been in great form this summer finishing 32114222 in her last eight races, beaten by just a neck two starts ago and by half a length last time out, both off just a pound lower than today's mark. The horse that beat her by a neck then won again next time out and this horse has won on both good and firm ground.

Algheed is the least experienced/exposed here after just five starts, running on turf just the once when 4th of 6 at a lower grade last time out. Based on that effort and the fact she's off the same mark suggests this will be tough for her up in class, as all her best form has been at Class 5 on the A/W. She's also dropping down to 6f for the first time too. Too many unknowns for my liking with this one.

Silent Flame is 3 from 7 on the Flat with two further places, has won over 6f on Good to firm and has finished 121213 in her six handicap efforts over 6f. Off a mark of 76 (last win off 70), she might now be carrying too much to win, but she's a definite place contender here.

Lady Celia is last of seven on the racecard and I'd not be surprised if that was her place in the results. She hasn't won for over a year, races from out of the handicap here and was only 7th of 10 at Class 3 last time out. This is her first crack at Class 2 and I'd be giving her a wide berth.

That's a general overview of what I see about them, but for race specific stats, we have our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Gale Force Maya and Silent Flame are the two obvious eye-catchers. The former has a poor 0/8 record in this grade, but she has made the frame in five of those eight defeats, so she's not a complete washout at this level, as we can see below...

The inability to even make the frame regularly makes it difficult to want to back Zim Baby and/or Ey Up its Maggie based on above and as I stated, we don't know enough about Algheed.

The draw here tends to favour those drawn low...

...although if we class 7 & 8 as one entity, then those drawn higher than 6 have the second best win (20.5%) and place (43.6%) returns behind stall 3, but with almost 53% of the winners and 49.4% of the placers coming from 1-3, that would be the preferred place to be here, which would be good news for Lady Celia, Silent Flame and Algheed.

In terms of tactics/positioning, our pace stats suggest that being upfront is the best policy...

...which, based on the way they've raced in their last four outings, would best suit the top three on this graphic...

And here is how I think they might break out...

Summary

I don't think I've seen anything to change my mind about which three I like best and although they head the market, that's not always a bad thing. All three are ultra consistent at making the frame under these conditions, but I think Silent Flame is the weakest of the three. She might be too high in the weights, has only raced once at a level higher than Class 4 and despite having a good draw, might find this a bit too much for her.

Of the other two, neither look brilliant from a pace/draw perspective but both are rock solid from a place position on Instant Expert. Both have won under similar conditions to today and I've very little between them. Gale Force Maya will relish a return to this track and that just tips it in her favour for me here.

So, I'm having Gale Force Maya at 9/2 to beat the 11/4 fav Crazy Luck for this one. I think Silent Flame is the best of the rest, but there's definitely scope for a runner like Algheed to cause an upset if allowed a soft lead. Algheed might be worth looking at from a back to lay perspective for those that way inclined.

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.