Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 17th July 2021

Saturday’s free feature of the day is the Trainer Jockey Combo report and is available in its entirety to all free registered users of Geegeez. This is one of the most popular reports on Geegeez with very good reason. Users are able to compare trainer and jockey combinations over 14 days, 30 days or 1 year and can also examine their records at the racecourses hosting meetings that day, over both the past year and past five years.

If you want to find out which trainer and jockey combo have 5 wins from 7 runners in the past year at Newbury, producing a Win PL of 7.82, head on over to the Trainer Jockey Combo Report. They have two runners at Newbury on Saturday.

The free races for registered users on Saturday are as follows:

1.50 Newbury
3.40 Newbury
4.15 Cartmel
4.35 Curragh
5.20 Newbury
7.20 Haydock

It's the last of those races I’m going to concentrate on. I think Haydock is certainly one of the more straight forward courses to back at and I tend to find that I probably have more success there than at any other course.

This is a class 5f sprint handicap open to 3yo+ and 10 runners are set to go to post.

Pace is always a key factor so let’s check out the pace map to see if any of these runners may be advantaged or inconvenienced by the run of the race.

Three possible front runners in this one so there is every chance they are taken along at a pretty good pace. Any runner that relies on getting an easy lead might not get the run of things and those that like to be held up should get some decent pace to aim at.

Let’s now look through the runners for this to build up a shortlist of those most likely to run well and those that could outrun their odds.

Mountain Peak

Relatively exposed 6yo now but he’s consistent and should get close to ideal conditions. His last win came off a mark of 95 and having run well off higher marks since he’s still managed to drop back down to 96 here. He won twice last season at this venue and also has a previous course and distance win too meaning he’s 3 from 3 here.

He's maybe been slightly disappointing this season but he was only beaten 0.75 lengths when 4th on his penultimate start and the 1st and 2nd have both won since. He seems to have developed a habit of being outpaced mid race but perhaps a strong pace here could help with that, as could the return to a course that obviously suits well.

Lord Riddiford

A possible pace angle. He couldn’t quite go the early pace in the Epsom Dash after a short break but was prominent last time and his best form has come when very close to the pace. It’s been almost three years since he won on turf and although he’s back on that last winning mark he hasn’t done enough to suggest he’s about to win again and sharper courses suit ideally. The trainer and jockey are in top form though.

Get It

One of three 3yos in the race. Came 4th in last season’s Windsor Castle and has had one run this year since a wind op which was a victory in a Wolverhampton novice stakes. He beat a 66 rated rival by just a length that day, giving him 5lbs, when he was rated 27lbs superior, so needs to massively step up on that form and is surprisingly short in the early betting.

Isle Of Lismore

Another 3yo. Successful on two of his last three runs but those victories came on heavy and good to soft whereas he was beaten last time out on good to firm, albeit only beaten 1.5 lengths. The ground probably won’t be that quick but it will be quicker than his recent wins and his tendency to hang right is a concern.

Indian Sounds

Has bumped into Mountain Peak on his last two runs, finishing a neck ahead the first time and 1.25 lengths behind most recently when getting shuffled back by a weakening rival. He’s not quite as consistent as Mountain Peak but seems to have a similar chance based on their recent meetings.

Ishvara

Another that lacks consistency, he either finishes in the first two or is well beaten – the latter eventuality has been the story in three out of four runs this season. He did run well against the improving Arecibo on his ‘good’ run this season but all his best form has come on soft ground and drying conditions will be against him.

Tweet Tweet

The third and final 3yo in the line up. Sent off favourite for a warm 3yo handicap at the Dante meeting last time out but failed to give his running. She had previously beaten the winner of that contest by 2.5 lengths so although she ran poorly last time out, she actually looked a very good bet in hindsight. An absence since mid May and that poor run clearly won’t have been the plan so it very much depends on what sort of form she returns in. If she’s back to the form of her seasonal debut she’d have a massive chance even if 10lbs higher here. One to monitor in the betting.

Phoenix Star

Part of the photo finish controversy on Eclipse day at Sandown, eventually called the dead heat winner of that race. He did look fairly handicapped heading into that race but he’s been nudged up 5lbs by the handicapper to a career high mark of 82. The horse he dead heated with at Sandown was beaten just a short head in a hot Ascot handicap last weekend so he's probably capable of defying this mark. He’s arguably best over a very stiff 5f or an easy 6f though so it’s possible this could be slightly too sharp, even with a strong early gallop.

Son And Sannie

Still quite lightly raced for a 5yo but his best form for his current yard has come in two runs on the all weather. Hasn’t matched that form on turf since and is likely to have competition for the early lead here which could compromise his chance further.

Saras Hope

Relatively lightly raced 4yo who hit form in the second half of last season on testing ground at this trip with two wins. He reappeared earlier this month over course and distance on good ground and despite finishing 4th, was only beaten a length. That run suggested he was as good as ever but he looked in need of softer ground there and is unlikely to get it here.

Summary

Tweet Tweet could bounce back but she’s a risky bet and is probably only worth considering if there is a positive market move.

Isle Of Lismore and especially Get It look too short in the early betting, Phoenix Star could be a more reliable prospect than that pair but he’s slightly vulnerable over this sharper test, even with a decent pace likely.

The two who make most appeal for me are Mountain Peak and Indian Sounds. At any other venue I’d probably take Indian Sounds at the bigger price but Mountain Peak seems to get on really well with this course and distance and with a strong pace likely to suit him perfectly, he's preferred. Given they are closely linked on two bits of recent form a reverse forecast would appeal too. Both will appreciate the ground drying as much as possible.

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