Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 17th November 2011

Did you know that the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one?

You do, now! It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

Did you also know that we make this fantastic report FREE to ALL readers EVERY Wednesday? Well, it's true and we supplement this offering with yet another selection of 'free' races of the day, which are as follows...

  • 1.05 Warwick
  • 1.40 Warwick
  • 2.25 Hexham
  • 6.30 Dundalk

My fairly stringent settings for the TS report haven't produced much to work with and with the two Warwick races only having a combined 11 runners, we're heading to the North East, where it'll be T-shirt weather for the locals attending the 2.25 Hexham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Chase worth a mere £2,886. The going is expected to be good to soft and the two mile left handed contest will feature 12 fences...

Izzy's Champion tops the Geegeez SR figures and is the form horse here with a win and a place from his last two starts, whilst Beat Box has failed to complete either of his last two. He's also one of three runners not seen in the last seven months, as he comes back from a 220 day absence, joined by Rollerruler (221d) and Southeast Rose (343d). The latter alongside Without Conviction are the only two females in the race and she is also the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts and a day short of a year ago. Beat Box is the only other previous winner at the trip.

Five of this field drop down from Class 4 action, namely Donladd, Chesterville, Barnay, Broomsfield Kan and Without Conviction and the latter makes a handicap debut here whilst the former is probably the pick on trainer/jockey form but is one of three chase debutants, the others being Very patient and Without Conviction, as shown here on Instant Expert...

...but if I'm honest, that's not telling us much else other than that I'd want to eliminate Fightfortheroses based on making the frame just once in twelve Class 5 outings over fences. I think that the sire stats might tell us a bit more...

...and with there being much more data available, we're able to make some assumptions about the runners. As i need to be strict and whittle the numbers down, Fightfortheroses (#8) and Challow (#13) leave us here, based on the line of red for their sires over fences. Which then leads us to pace, a factor that is still very relevant in non-Flat races. The word pace can be a bit of a misnomer, we're not looking for the fastest horse, it's not a 5f sprint at Chelmsford, we're looking at which horse(s) run at the best pace to win during a race ie those who judge the pace best.

Thankfully we have lots of stats to back us up here and ideally in this sort of contest...

...we're looking for a horse with an average pace score of around 2.75 or greater from both a win and a place perspective, but it's clear that the further forward you race, the better your chances are said to be. We log all runners pace scores, of course and here are the last four outings for our field...

So, I want the top seven from that list going forward and they'll be the ones I want to focus on. I may as well quickly look at them in pace order to save confusion, starting with...

Chesterville : 1 from 19 career record doesn't scream winner, especially at 0/12 over fences, but was a decent runner-up at Tramore two starts ago before a UK and yard debut at Sedgefield LTO. He faded badly and went down by 21 lengths and a mark of 105 is probably too high, as he was off 94 two starts ago.

Rollerruler : had made the frame once in 8 over hurdles and once in 7 over fences. hasn't been seen since being pulled up 4 out seven months ago and as beaten by 45 lengths the time before. Down 5lbs and making a yard debut, but will probably need the run, even if the yard are 20 from 83 in Hexham handicap chases since 2012.

Southeast Rose : relatively new to chasing, finishing 614 so far, including a course and distance win here this time last year. Still unexposed and receives weight form most of her rivals, she could be in the mix.

Donladd : makes a chasing bow after an 11 length defeat over hurdles at Carlisle last time out. That wasn't a bad effort after 192 days off track and only weakened out of it late on. His record over hurdles this year is 221P4 and the drop in trip and class should help for a trainer and jockey in good nick...

Barnay : had a good winter last time around, finishing 3121 over hurdles from late November to late February, but struggled at Sedgefield on chase debut LTO. He was beaten by 32 lengths as 7th of 10, but faded before 3 out over 4f further than today after a 199-day layoff. Should come on for the run, but a mark of 104 makes life tough, but you can't argue with the form of his handler and rider...

Without Conviction : a lightly raced 6 yr old mare who made the frame in both of her bumper runs and also in the middle one of her three efforts over hurdles. Probably needed the run after 195 days off when beaten over hurdles at Kelso last month and now makes a chase debut down in trip and class. An opening mark of 98 doesn't leave much room for error here and others hold more appeal.

Izzy's Champion : the form horse in the race, gets weight from most of her rivals and tops the geegeez ratings. She was game when holding on to win at Musselburgh last time out despite having to do too much too soon and although up five pounds, should go well again here, especially if not going at full tilt for as long this time.

Summary

Of those likeliest to race forward of midfield, the two I like best are Donladd and Izzy's Champion and with the latter being in better form, more experienced over fences and carrying 20lbs less, I have to side with Izzy's Champion at 5/1, which I think is a fair price when i was expecting to see him as a 4/1 favourite.

Much will depend on (a) him not being too far off the pace and (b) Donladd's jumping on chase debut. Donladd comes from a yard in form and renowned for their jumpers, but it's just the 12 stone weight on chase debut that worries me here, so I've cautiously got him as second best. He's also 5/1 (I was expecting/hoping for 6's), but that's not E/W territory for me. If I was to suggest an E/W or place bet on something a bit longer, then Barnay might fit the bill. The early market doesn't fancy him at 16/1, but he ran well this time last year, likes to get on with it and his yard and jockey have some good numbers behind them.

 

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