Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 17th September 2021

Apologies for the tardiness of today's piece, something unavoidable cropped up at 2pm and that was me out of action for most of the afternoon/evening! So, parish notices dealt with, on with the analysis.

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses Report (H4C), which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

As an example, here's what my (H4C) says for Friday...

...handy for those of you partial to an Irish A/W flutter, but it's not my cup of tea if I'm honest. Thankfully we also have our daily set of free races, which are scheduled to be...

  • 1.15 Newbury
  • 1.25 Downpatrick
  • 1.35 Ayr
  • 2.10 Ayr
  • 4.13 Newton Abbot
  • 8.30 Kempton

And of those, I've decided to preview the Harry Rosebery Stakes, a Listed race for 2 yr olds over 5f on Good to Firm ground. 13 will compete for a prize of almost £24,400 in the 2.10 Ayr...

I'm clearly way behind schedule, but to reiterate what I've said previously about not needing long to assess a race, let's get this boxed off quickly, logically and methodically. I'm going start you off with a stat and that stat is that horses sent off at 16/1 or longer in 5f Listed race on turf since the start of 2018 are a measly 6 from 346 with a strike rate of just 1.73% and an A/E of 0.51, so I'm immediately discounting Fast Response, Eternal Halo, Edward Cornelius, Lady Ayresome and Unfinishedsympathy from my calculations, leaving me with a far more workable card...

...before moving on to Instant Expert...

...where Vintage Clarets and Canonized fare best over this speed/firmness of ground, we've no previous Class 1 winners but all bar Vertiginous have been placed. Vertiginous is also the one without a win at the trip. He looks the weakest here to me, so I'm crossing him off too.

This leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 9, 11, 12 and 13 and the draw stats for this type of race tell me that the lower end of the draw has done better than those drawn higher from both a win and a place perspective...

...this is particularly good news for Geocentric, Mitbaahy and Ernest Rutherford.  Now, the race is 5f on quick ground and the general feeling in such races is that you need to be sharp away and hold on. let's see if the stats for Ayr back this up....

Well, yes leaders and prominent runners fare best for places with leaders winning far more than other styles from a % point of view. And when we look at this field's recent running styles, we can instantly see that three of them have led once  with Vintage Clarets, Canonized and Geocentric all having 3 scores of at least 3 with the latter having a 100% 3+ pace score and it's possibly these three to focus on, based on pace...

Of those three, though, only Geocentric was drawn low, so he's probably the best positioned on the pace/draw heat map?

Unsurprisingly, yes. He looks the one of my seven most likely to take it on whilst Vintage Clarets is also well positioned from the high draw. The other one I like the look of from that graphic is Canonized and I think they're the three I'm most interested in here.

Summary

I've very quickly whittled the 13 runners down to just 3 via stats and the toolkit and whilst it's highly possible that we might have overlooked the winner, it's good to show you how quickly you can actually look at a race.

Of the three I'm left with, Geocentric ticks most boxes. She's 1 from 1 at the trip, has a good draw and is likely to lead. She's not been out of the first two home in three starts and was a runner-up at Group 3 last time out. I'd say she's the one to beat here at 4/1.

I don't have much between the other two on my notes, but at 15/2, I'd take an E/W punt on Vintage Clarets with any bookie paying four places (I don't mind a slight lowering of my E/W cut-odds if I can get an extra place). He was a good third in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot three months ago and was beaten by less than 4 lengths at that level last time out. he was up at 6f that day and faded in the final furlong, so the drop back in trip allied with his ability shown in the Coventry makes him a decent E/W option.

Canonized is too short to go E/W for me at 13/2, but it's your call! She's already won three times this season and was only beaten by a length and three quarters in a French Group 2 race over 5f a fortnight ago. I fully expect her to be there or thereabouts and despite the risk of having overlooked a winner, I'm happy with the three I've gone with.

 

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