Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 18th December 2021

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the rather splendid Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers will tend to turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to opening up this report, we also have our usual daily selection of free races, which consists of...

  • 11.40 Lingfield
  • 12.35 Navan
  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 3.35 Ascot

As is often the case, my fairly stringent settings for the TJC report mean that I don't have a plethora of qualifiers, but my 5yr course handicap filter has two possibles, one of which runs in one of our free races...

...so it makes perfect sense (to me, anyway) to take a look at the 1.50 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3f on Good To Soft ground. Our runners will go right handed to tackle 16 fences in a bid to win £13,008...

Of the eleven, only Dolos, Slate House and Guy are winless in their last few races, although the latter has hit the crossbar several times and Slate House looks the weakest on results alone. He's one of seven runners stepping up in class here with only Dolos, Diego du Charmil, Sully D'Oc AA and Guy having raced at this Class 2 level last time out.

The top three on the card (Dolos, Diego du Charmil & Sully D'Oc AA) have all won here before with Diego the only one of the three without a couse and distance win. Four others (Knight In Dubai, Palmers Hill, Slate House & Golden Whisky) however, have won at this trip in the past.

Financier hasn't been seen since winning at Hereford just over nine months ago, but his ten rivals have all had the benefit of a run in the past six weeks and Financier's layoff is a concern for me, as is the form of Dolos, Ornua and Slate House (especially with the latter pair stepping up in class).

In fact I'm going to be quite brutal here and omit those four from the equation right now, as we assess relevant form via Instant Expert...

It's good to see that all seven have some green on display, but the lack of Class 2 chasing success is the eyecatching stat for me, however closer inspection shows that both Diego & Sully have made the frame once at this level, whilst Guy has placed on both of his C2 outings. In fact, it probably makes sense to look at the overall Instant Expert picture from a place perspective...

...where Guy now looks very strong for making the frame, but the 17lb weight hike since his last win might be more than enough to stop him getting home first, whereas both Diego & Knight in Dubai run off marks lower than their own last wins. With regards to class, I should probably add that Diego has 2 wins and a place from 8 Class 1 runs, whilst Sully's C1 record has a win and a place from four efforts, so I'm now less concerned about their ability to run well at this level.

The final piece of the jigsaw from a Geegeez toolkit perspective is to look at how the race might be run and based off their most recent outings...

...I'd expect the pace to be set by the likes of Golden Whisky and Ornua. Palmers Hill is likely to run in mid-division with Dolos & Sully probably separating him from the leaders. Slate House's tactics are unclear, but Diego looks like he'll sit between Palmers Hill and the four (IMO) confirmed hold-up types, Knight In Dubai, Financier, Guy and Zhiguli.

But what's the best approach, Chris?

Well, our pace analyser says...

...which would seem to favour the likes of Sully D'Oc AA, Palmers Hill and Diego du Charmil from the seven I took to Instant Expert.

Summary

Of the seven runners I quickly narrowed the field down to, the ones catching the eye were...

Form : Palmers Hill & Guy
Instant Expert : Palmers Hill, Guy, Diego du Charmil and Sully D'Oc AA
Pace : Sully D'Oc AA, Palmers Hill and Diego du Charmil

Which essentially gives me four candidates with Palmers Hill ticking all the boxes. He's unsurprisingly the early bookies favourite (as of 4.15pm) and his odds of 7/2 are pretty much what I expected and I'll have a piece of that.

Of the other three, there's probably not much between them, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Guy's recent pair of Class 2 runner-up finishes will give him a slight edge, so he'd be my next best. He's available at 11/2, which is probably about right, but not long enough for me to go each way. Many bookies are actually paying four places here and my two remaining runners, Diego du Charmil and Sully D'Oc AA are both priced at playable E/W odds at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively and at four places, I'd be happy to have a wee punt on both.

I find/found it tough to separate the pair though, but with Diego now down in weight and having more Ascot experience, I'd probably side with him for third if pushed, but either could finish in the top three.

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