Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 18th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.45 Wincanton
  • 1.15 Wincanton
  • 2.00 Thurles
  • 3.15 Wincanton

If I'm honest, none of the free races grab my attention enough to want to get involved with them, so I looked at tomorrow's racecards page and decided to set the following filters to narrow down my choice of races...

...which produced the following race list for me...

...and the one I'm most interested in is the 1.22 Market Rasen, as it's a Class 2 handicap (should have some form to work with) for 8 runners (so 3 E/W places). There is unfortunately a fly in the ointment in the shape of a short priced favourite, but I'm going to try to find us an E/W bet. We don't currently have any odds showing on the card, so I lifted the following from Oddschecker at 3.10pm (other odds comparison sites are available, of course!)...

...and I want to disregard the first three on the list, because I don't like to bet shorter than 8/1 for E/W purposes, leaving me with a card looking like this...

...for a Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle on good ground worth £10,892.

All five are up in class, Small Present has the best formline, but struggled LTO (was over fences, mind and after 211 days off). Potters Hedger might need a run after a 7 month break. Three of the five have won here previously with Giovanni Change a former C&D winner.

Past win form via Instant Expert...

...gives an edge to Small Present and Giovanni Change, whilst place form...

...throws Potters Hedger into the mix.

Our pace analyser suggests that leading is the best policy...

...but anything aside from being held up should be fine for both win & place purposes, which leads us to the past running styles of the five horses under consideration...

...which suggests Giovanni Charge is certainly in a good place to launch a bid for the frame, but Small Present has work to do, having been held up twice in his last three outings.

Summary

No apologies for brevity today, as it's not one of our 'free' races, but you really should be able to whizz through a card as quickly as I have here (this was intentional!), so let's quickly re-assess...

Form : Small Present, Giovanni Change & Potters Hedger were the positives.
Instant Expert : Small Present, Giovanni Change &  partially Potters Hedger were the positives.
Pace : Giovanni Change was the positive, but Small Present was a notable negative.

I can get 11/1 about Giovanni Change with Bet365 right now (3.20pm), so I'll have a small E/W play here. He was a back to back winner here in the spring off marks of 114 and 121 and although unsuccessful since off marks in the low 130's, his mark is now dropping and he's 4lbs lower than when third over C&D (beaten by less than 4 lengths) in July, so could well get closer today.

As for the winner, I can't get away from the 7/4 Jesuitique and although I'm not a fan of backing shorties, he might well be better than those odds!

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