Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 19th June 2021

Goodwood is abandoned for Friday, so my preview went to just one runner, Ballyhome. Sadly he had to play second fiddle to Lord bryan who made all, couldn't be caught and beat our featured horse by five lengths, but look at the pace graphic I shared last night...

They were the first two in the pace rankings and the end result...

Monty's Award, by the way, was the 10/1 shot that appealed to me most from those "at a price"

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After all that, onto my last piece of the week and I'm assisted (as all readers are) by free access to the excellent Trainer/Jockey combo report as well as the following free races...

  • 2.00 Perth
  • 2.10 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Ascot
  • 4.00 Down Royal
  • 4.35 Down Royal
  • 5.45 Lingfield

And it's to the Trainer/Jockey combo report that I turn today, focusing on my qualifiers from the 5yr course handicap figures, which highlight two runners of interest...

First up is Bint Australia...

Overall, the Fanshawe/Muscott partnership has 8 wins and 8 places from 29 runs here at Lingfield (27.6% win, 55.2% place), but that doesn't tell the full story, as under today's conditions those 29 have...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 12 from female runners
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 11 at Class 5
  • 2 wins, 4 places from 9 with 4 yr olds
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 over 1m3.5f/1m4f

All good, BUT only 2 of those 29 were on turf and whilst both made the frame (neither won), it's fair to say that the headline stats is based on A/W form, but hey here we are. The filly's own record looks like this...

She comes here in decent nick, considering she hasn't won any of her six starts so far. Her sole run on soft ground was her debut at Haydock last July and she wasn't disgraced in getting beaten by less than 6 lengths at this class, but since then she hasn't been out of the frame, finishing 22233 and was a creditable third on handicap debut last time out. She never looked like winning if truth be told but she stayed on well and the extra 1.5 furlongs might suit her here.

She's drawn in stall 1, which on the face of the low/med/high sector stats doesn't look the best place to be for this contest...

...and this is backed up the 0 from 18 record for stall 1 in similar contests, but there is a healthy 38.9% place strike rate, which is as good as any other stall, so maybe it's not a forlorn hope today.

Irrespective of where she's drawn, what she really can't afford to do here is dwell at the start and then sit at the back of the field, as history suggests this is a poor tactic which just 2 of 52 hold-up horses managing to win...

The above details are reflected in the pace/draw heatmap which favours the bottom right corner combos, as we look at it...

Bint Australia actually tends to run somewhere between the two best running styles, but stall 1's poor 0 from 18 result means her place on that heatmap looks like this...

...but hang on, Chris. Didn't you say that stall 1 made the frame as often if not more than any other stall. Yes I did and here's that same heatmap from a place perspective...

Beat The Heat is expected to set the pace in this one, but the pace/draw data suggests that Bint Australia is well positioned for a place.

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Our second race features Baby Alya, who may or may not run on Saturday, as she's also booked for Friday's 7.00 Newmarket...

The Ryan/Muscott/Haydock handicap combo is really interesting at 6 wins and 7 places from 25 runs (24%w, 52%p) since the start of the 2016 season, because in that same time they are 0 from 23 with just 5 placers in non-handicaps.

But of the 25 'cappers that interest us...

  • 3 yr olds have 4 wins, 2 places from 10
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 on good to firm
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 female runners
  • 1 win, 2 places from 4 at Class 4

which is encouraging, but the flip side is just one placer from four in June, just 2 placers from 5 over a mile (but the sole 8.5f runner won) and no wins from five during 2020/21, although three of the five made the frame.

Baby Alya is lightly raced so far, so her career stats are a little sparse...

...but I can tell you that she won on debut at Newcastle (C5, 7f) by 1.25 lengths last September with Tom Eaves on board on her only start as a 2 yr old before taking 219 days off track. She then ran reasonably well at the same track/trip/class to finish third under Tom Eaves again before making a turf/hcp debut at Newmarket last month, stepped up to a mile for the first time.

She ran pretty well to be honest, probably better than 4th of 12 would suggest when closer inspection shows she was only beaten by just over length having been squeezed for room in the final furlong. A similar effort would give her a chance of another place, you'd have thought.

She's drawn widest of all in stall 10 and the draw sector analysis isn't favourable for high draws...

...but stall by stall analysis would suggest that 5 wins/9 places from 30 (16.66%, 30%) from the combined data for stalls 10 & 11 isn't as bad as the sector data suggests, which are skewed by poor numbers for stalls 8 & 9...

The pace, however, is easier to work out. It's Haydock, it's quick ground (Gd to Fm here is like concrete in comparison to the mud we often get here) and the premise is very simple : lead or get/stay close to the leader. Hold-up horses (4 from 106) need not apply!

This is, of course, reflected in the pace/draw heatmap which says lead from a high draw or get in close from a low draw, so if Baby Alya likes to be up with the pace, she could well be favoured by that 10th stall...

Sadly, she's been held up in her three runs to date and that's really not going to work here...

and even from a place perspective, she can't afford to be at the back...

Summary

Two runners representing successful trainer/jockey partnerships, but to cut a long story short, I can't be backing either to win here.

I'm happy to explain where I'm at for those who are interested, so here goes. Bint Australia has every chance of making the frame and I think she'll do just that, but her record is better on A/W than turf, she hasn't raced on turf for almost 11 months and her mark of 74 is a little high as it's based on her 4 places from 4 on the A/W.

She's currently 4/1 and I can't back her E/W or for a place at those odds. If I was to play this race, Gold Souk (6/1) & City Tour (7/1) look more interesting.

As for Baby Alya, I don't see her even making the places. Her hcp/turf debut was promising, but although it's the same class of race, this one looks tougher. She's not going to make much impression from the back on this track, so a change of tactics would be required here.

The only way I'd want to get involved was if she was double digit odds and I could have a small bet to nothing on the place. As it is, she's only 13/2 which is shorter than I'd want. Elvrika at 9/2 is the one I was more interested in.

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