Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 1st October 2021

The Horses For Courses (H4C) report is our free feature every Friday and it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

In addition to this free report, we also offer the following 'races of the day' to all readers...

  • 2.30 Ascot
  • 2.38 Gowran Park
  • 4.05 Hexham
  • 5.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Here's how my H4C report looks for Friday...

And I think I'll take a look at the two UK runners at the top of that list, starting with Sheriff Garrett, who runs in the 3.30 Hexham, which is a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f on good ground worth £5,174...

As you can see, he has won two of his last five runs, he's a former course and distance winner, his yard have a good record at this track and he's top of the Geegeez SR figures. His six handicap runs here have all been over trips of 2m4f/2m4.5f and his form in those reads 141512 ( win, loss, win, loss, win, loss...) and was only beaten by a head here a month ago by a horse carrying 12lbs less.

Jamie Hamilton has been in the saddle for all six runs here and headgear (cheekpieces or blinkers) plus a tongue tie have been omnipresent. He has won here on both Good and Soft ground, but he is up in class and on a career-high mark of 122.

Instant Expert suggests that it's only this venue that's a positive in his past form, although he has a fair record at the trip, but even that is mainly due to his three wins here...

The pace stats for similar races suggests that leading is the best policy...

...and he has the highest average pace score in this field over the last three races, so I'd expect him to try to control the race from the front again today. It paid off three starts ago, it very nearly paid off last time out and with those runs in mind, I'm fairly confident that those tactics will be in operation again today.

*

Buniann then runs in the 8.30 Newcastle, which is an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ AW handicap over 5f on tapeta worth £3,240...

...where he too tops the Geegeez SR figures and it's a race this 5 yr old gelding is very familiar with, as he won it last year off a 3lb lower mark. His handicap record over course and distance reads 52131213 (51312 at this grade), so he'd be very interesting from a place perspective if nothing else. The sharper eyed amongst you will see there's only 8 runs there and not 9 as per the H4C report, because one of them was an unsuccessful attempt at 6f last November.

He hasn't actually won any of his last ten starts, since scoring here over course and distance at Class 4 back in March off a mark just 1lb lower than today, but in his defence, nine of those ten starts have been on turf where he isn't the same horse (he's 0/15 on the Flat!).

He's drawn in stall 6, which is in the middle and mid to high draws are more favourable here, so whilst he's not got the best of it, it could have been worse...

The pace stats here at Newcastle over this minimum trip suggest that leading is the best tactic...

...but it's pointless me showing you the pace chart for Buniann in this race, as his last four runs have all been on turf where he has been held-up. His runs here at Newcastle normally see him up with the pace and the expression "pressed leaders" features in many of his race reviews, so with that in mind, I'll place him on the Pace/draw heatmap for this race as follows...

This would suggest that he'd need to be ridden quite boldly if he's to win here.

Summary

Two very different horses in very different races, but both top on the Geegeez SR figures.

Sheriff Garrett will have to see off the challenge of last year's winner, Glinger Flame but the latter is 9453S since that win and hasn't been in anything like the same form as the rest of his career. Instead, I think the biggest danger will come from the 9/2 shot Pammi who has been in excellent form this last three months. Sheriff Garrett is currently priced at 7/2, which is roughly where I think he should be, if not a little shorter, so I'm happy enough to play at those odds.

And as for Buniann, he won this last year off a similar mark, he's the course and distance specialist and a return to the AW seems a smart move. I think he can land this one, but his current odds of 9/2 are a little on the stingy side for me. I wasn't asking for the moon on a stick, but 5/1 or even 11/2 would have been nice. That said, I do like him for this one and I'll probably still back him (I might just be cheeky and ask for 6.5 on the exchanges). Main threats for me here would include the likes of The Bell Conductor at 5/1, whilst the old veteran Duke of Firenze might be a tad over-priced at 11/1 and I think I'll have a small E/W play there too.

As always, good luck whichever way you choose to play this one.

 

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Yes, a lovely performance. Better than I expected if truth be told.
      Prince of Harts ran a really good race in third despite probably hating the ground conditions.

      Reply

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