Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 20th July 2021

Tuesday’s free feature of the day is the Shortlist Report, an extremely popular part of Geegeez Gold. The Shortlist Report highlights horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in Instant Expert everyday in attempt to flag up runners that are most likely to enjoy conditions – and therefore run to form and run well. It can be used for both win and place purposes and is completely free on Tuesday’s to all free registered users of Geegeez.

The free races for free registered users on Tuesday will be:

2.30 Ffos Las
4.30 Wolverhampton
5.25 Ballinrobe
5.55 Ballinrobe

With limited form on offer in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton this is an opportunity to highlight an often under appreciated part of Instant Expert.

The 4.30 at Wolverhampton is a 12f novice auction stakes open to 3yos and 4yos and thankfully six of the seven runners have had at least one run so we won’t be completely in the dark.

First of all I want to start with Instant Expert. Looking at the runners in Instant Expert isn’t going to give us a ton of information given the limited form on offer but by looking at the sire data we will hopefully find some useful snippets that can be used to narrow the field and highlight those likely to go well.

Looking at the data above, you’d have to have some reservations about Bashful and Jerriais on the surface as their sires, Manduro and Geordieland, have much poorer place records on standard going than the rest of the field. Jerriais has run here on his only start but he was beaten 11 lengths so perhaps connections need to seek turf opportunities instead.

Interestingly Casamento, sire of Flamingo Rose, has a slightly better record on standard than Mount Nelson, sire of Fort Nelson, but Mount Nelson seems to have a far superior record at Wolverhampton compared to Casamento. Something to note.

The sire information for distance could also be quite telling. There is no distance data for Geordieland, sire of Jerriais, but given Geordieland was a two mile winner and placed in the Ascot Gold Cup you’d expect Jerriais to stay well and need all of this trip and then some. Once again things look bleak for Bashful as his sire, Manduro, has a poorer record at this distance. Kendargent, the sire of Bascule, has the best place record at this trip followed by Animal Kingdom, sire of Hanafy.

Overall looking at the above, ignoring what they have achieved on track to date you’d probably be most interested in Hanafy and then Bascule with Fort Nelson also considered.

Note that there is no sire Instant Expert data for the unraced Samara Star who is by Adaay.

The Profiler tool suggests Adaay’s offspring are better on softer turf than either fast ground or all weather surfaces.

There isn’t much form to go on, but let’s take a look at what the runners have achieved so far.

Fort Nelson

Well beaten in two starts at this sort of distance and early warning signs being tried in blinkers on debut and a hood last time out. He’s already tried an all weather surface (at Lingfield) and there is little to suggest he’ll improve here.

Hanafy

Ran a decent 3rd on debut in a national hunt flat race in January for Kevin Bishop before not showing much in one hurdle start. Moved to Mitchell Hunt and was beaten 15 lengths in a novice on stable debut but that was a strong race (winner rated 95, runner up rated 88, 4th rated 89). You’d expect him to get much closer in a much more moderate race here.

First time cheekpieces go on. Worryingly the trainer has used first time cheekpieces twice before and neither runner beat a rival home. A small sample though.

Flamingo Rose

Won a maiden national hunt flat race at Southwell (turf) in May after a wind op, sporting a first time tongue tie. Attempted to follow up last month over two furlongs shy of this trip at Chelmsford but was beaten 16.5 lengths, looking in need of further. The winner of that is now rated 84 so this is likely to be easier but she does need to improve for the extra trip.

Bascule

One of two runners to have a handicap rating (74) and has finished runner up on his last two starts. All three runs to date have come over a mile but the sire stats in Instant Expert pointed to this sort of trip suiting and the dam also stayed this trip. If he improves for the extra half mile he’ll surely go very close and even a reproduction of his previous form at this trip could be enough.

The booking of William Buick catches the eye, he is 3 from 4 for Richard Hughes on the all weather in the past five years.

Bashful

Also rated 74 and also stepping up in trip (from 10f). He’s finished runner up on all three starts this season, including in handicap company last time out, so he’s clearly capable of running to this mark. He possibly didn’t want to go past last time out if you were being critical and probably isn’t one to put too much faith in at shortish prices. This will be his all weather debut and Instant Expert flagged a slightly poor record for Manduro on standard going which is another negative.

Jerriais

Very likely to improve for his first run given that came over less than 10f and he’s by stayer Geordieland. He certainly looked in need of further that day. Geordieland is yet to sire anything rated higher than 65 on the flat and the dam was only rated 67 so it’s unlikely he’ll amount to much on the level, whatever the trip.

Samara Star

Makes her handicap debut for Simon and Ed Crisford. A half sister to Tactician so potential to be smarter than several of these. Obviously the betting will give us plenty of clues but the fact that the sire’s offspring tend to do better on turf than all weather is a slight concern.

Summary

This isn’t going to be a betting heat for many and based on all of the information I have Bascule looks a fair bit more interesting than Bashful and undoubtedly looks the one to beat. Samara Star could be anything but unless there is a significant market move she could be one to wait for on turf.

Of the remainder, Hanafy and Flamingo Rose should get a lot closer than they have to date. Preference of the two would be for Hanafy who is bred for the all weather and ran in a pretty hot novice last time out, albeit well beaten. He can hopefully improve on Mitchell Hunt’s poor record so far with first time cheekpieces and it's a slight shame each way betting is restricted to two places in this as he might have been worth chancing each way (or even place only) at a big price if getting three places. It’s Bascule they all have to beat though.

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11 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      We can’t please everyone, Robert, and sorry you feel that way. As you probably know from Sam’s very successful weekend previews, he’s an excellent racing analyst. That he has a different style is a big positive in my book because the key is that EVERYONE has a different style and there isn’t a single way of solving the puzzle.

      I’m delighted to publish both Chris and Sam, as expert analysts: they show me how it’s done on a daily basis!

      Matt

      Reply
      • Rambler
        Rambler says:

        Matt – your points are duely noted. As you say Geegeez has to accommodate everyone whether they be aspiring pro gamblers or semi (mug) punters such as me. For the record, I so much like CW’s style – long may he continue to work with you at Geegeez.
        Been a member for many years now and don’t regret a single day.

        Regards Bob S.

        Reply
        • Matt Bisogno
          Matt Bisogno says:

          All good and fine, Bob, and thank you for your long-term support which is really appreciated.

          We want to appeal to all levels of bettor, and I want us to use Racing Insights to showcase all different aspects of what we have to offer.
          That’s why it’s great that we have different analysts who look at the puzzle in different ways!

          Best,
          Matt

          Reply
  2. Chris J
    Chris J says:

    For what its worth Matt I prefer Sam and your previews, each to their own as you say, cant please everyone 🙂

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Indeed Chris, we all have different tastes and look at the puzzle in slightly different ways. And hallelujah for that!

      Matt

      Reply
  3. Blokeshead
    Blokeshead says:

    In life, I often use the phrase, “Different is good”. My (hopefully humble-ish) opinion/experience is that the phrase is often (usually?) true, even if I know it isn’t always. But my twopence worth would be that it applies here too.

    The ultimate objective (I hope) with this site is that we become better punters and perhaps even join the small elite group that makes a few bob over the course of time, and anything that enables us to see things a little differently can (again, imho) only be good.

    Sam clearly knows a lot more about horse racing than I do, just as Chris does (and maybe even you too, Matt! 😉 ), and I’m happy to be nudged in the direction of seeing the big picture more clearly by any one of you. Not a day passes that I’m not grateful for this website.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks for your comment Stuart, though I resent the remark about me knowing much about horse racing!! 😉

      Racing Insights is a daily feature about how to dissect a given race.
      For me, it’s not about the author but about the subject matter, which doesn’t have a fixed formula.

      We could perhaps have occasional guest contributors from the Geegeez Gold community, because we all view things slightly differently and, as you say, in that difference is generally goodness.

      The toolkit itself is hugely diverse with different users availing of different components: that’s the idea!

      Hope all is well in Sweden, and thanks again for your note.

      Matt

      Reply
  4. Chris J
    Chris J says:

    Hi Matt,

    To quote yourself: ‘We could perhaps have occasional guest contributors from the Geegeez Gold community’, is this something that could be a possibility? I’ve always wanted to get in to writing, blogging etc

    Many thanks,

    Chris.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      Yes, on a voluntary basis and assuming editorial standards were upheld. I appreciate that’s asking a lot but you know the level of content you’ve come to expect, so that’s the bar.
      I think we’d publish alongside our ‘resident’ analysts but I for one am always interested in how other people approach the puzzle.

      Matt

      Reply
      • Chris Worrall
        Chris Worrall says:

        My thoughts, for what they’re worth, is that as a trio we (Matt, Sam and myself) all approach it differently because our strengths (and weaknesses) lie in different areas, so it’s good for the site to have these different approaches.

        None of the three of us feel slighted if you prefer one of the other two, nor do any of us feel we’re any better than the others. In fact, I think Sam does a far better individual race analysis than I do, as it’s an approach I’m still perfecting myself!

        My background/go-to starting point has always been horse/trainer stats in isolation of assessing any rivals, but the aim of Racing Insights isn’t necessarily to “tip” a winner, but to merely highlight how we think a race might pan out and hopefully highlight some possibilities for the reader to consider for themselves.

        My aim on RI is to attempt to show how the tools work to the less experienced punter or those not fully acquainted with Gold, which is why I tend to work with the free races/features for those yet to upgrade to the full service.

        Reply

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