Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 20th November 2021

Saturday's free-to-all Geegeez Gold feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report (or TJC for brevity), which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

But wait, there's more free goodness in the form of our daily 'races of the day', which for Saturday are as follows...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.38 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

My stringent parameters for the TJC report...

...have generated no qualifiers, so I'm going to look at the 3.30 Lingfield, which is a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over a left handed 7f on Standard going polytrack and it's worth £2,700 to one of this dozen...

My aim is to quickly whittle these down to a shortlist of possible bets and the first thing I'm going to do is to remove Alicestar, Born to Finish and Joe Proud from the equation. I expect all three to be priced at 33/1 or bigger and such horses rarely win and are generally those odds for a reason. Born To finish might also need a run after nearly 20 weeks off. I'm also not a fan of backing horses who have never made the frame before and Charming Paradise's 9th of 9, 9th of 12, 11th of 12, 12th of 12 and 7th of 11 doesn't appeal to me at all, so he's gone too and we're down to 8!

Olivia Mary is the only LTO winner here and of the others, just three (Clegane, Nibras Shadow & Red Evelyn) have a win in their recent formline. The Geegeez SR figures predict a tight race between three of that quartet and I think I see it that way too from my initial look at the race.

We can assess past form via Instant Expert, of course...

...where in terms of winning races on the A/W, Clegane certainly catches the eye, but full lines of red for Always Dreaming, Keep Right On and Maahi Ve are a concern. perhaps they've been unlucky not to win, but have made the frame a few times?

Well, yes, that trio certainly look better from a place perspective and live to stay in the selection process a little longer. Red Evelyn looks weak for making the frame and as I don't think she's anywhere near winning this, she has to go because she's not a placer either. Olivia Mary is the standout on places showing some consistency and at the moment, I'd want to be choosing just from those with any green.

Next up is the draw and our seven runners are to be berthed in boxes 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11 and 12, so I'm hoping the higher half of the draw is the place to be over 7f here at Lingfield. Time to check the Draw Analyser...

I'll admit that isn't quite what I was expecting or hoped for, but of my seven I've got left, it looks good for Nibras Shadow (stall 3) and also Clegane / Keep Right On in 11 and 12 respectively. Perhaps those drawn centrally and possibly inconvenienced by the above will be able to over come the draw by getting their race tactics spot on.

To ascertain if this will be the case, we now turn to the Pace Analyser, which says...

...that prominent or leading position is most advantageous, so we're going to be looking for pace scores of 3 or 4 from our runners and here's how they have raced in their last four outings...

...which isn't good for the likes of Light Lily. Previously heralded Nibras Shadow and Clegane don't seem to have the best pace profiles either, but both have raced prominently in the past, but it looks like advantage Olivia Mary here, although there could well be a pace burn-up from wide and that could drag Clegane forward.

The pace/draw combo stats are interesting, though...

...as they would tend to largely negate the effect of the draw as all stalls do well. with prominent/leader pace scores.

Summary

The Geegeez SR scores were as follows...

...and I thought they were the 3 most likely to succeed. Having gone through the toolbox, I've not changed my mind and now I've seen the market, the bookies also have these three in the first four. They've got Nibras Shadow as the 11/4 fav and whilst I've little separating her from her younger rival, I'm siding marginally with the 3yr old filly, Olivia Mary. 6/1 offers some value here, I think.

As for Clegane, she's 8/1 and with most bokies paying four places, she's worht an E/W bet escpecially as she's already won over course and distance three months ago off a mark of 60 and goes here off 62 with a 7lb claimer.

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