Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 21st October 2020

Intrinsic Bond was indeed on the premises at Newcastle and ran well for a place, beaten by less than two lengths, whilst Skyace was a faller two from home over in Ireland without ever looking like winning, whereas Molly Shaw was disappointing, hanging right and weakening late on. She was too short for my liking anyway and I'm glad I swerved that one.

And now we turn our attentions to Wednesday, where the feature of the day is the wonderful (IMO at least) Trainer Statistics report and our free races of the day are as follows...

  • 1.50 Hereford
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 3.30 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 6.15 Kempton

What I'm going to focus on today is a separate race from the above, but one that has particular relevance to our feature of the day. I've chosen to look that the Trainer, 1 year course handicap figures with my parameters set at a 20% win strike rate and a 33% place strike rate from a minimum of 15 runs in the last year. As ever, my A/E is set at 1.25 and above, whilst my required IV is at 1.50 and above.

Feel free to set your own parameters of course, but I use these to get a decent amount to look at without having too much to consider. And here's the report...

As you've probably noticed, we have four possibles (Adelante, Dancing Feet, Rubia Bella and Serenading) in the 7.15 Kempton : an 8-runner, Class 4 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack with the winner receiving £5,208 for their troubles. So let's go through the tools to see if we can form an opinion...

Racecard in Speed Rating Order :

Your first 30 days for just £1

...where we have the top-rated, third, joint fourth and seventh ranked with Serenading standing out with quite a big margin, although she is now stepping up in class/weight.

Pace/Draw Heatmap in draw order : 

...suggests horses running in mid-division, preferably the middle of the stalls, tend to fare best. All four possibles seem to be drawn well for their running styles and the pace in the race looks to be in stalls 1-4, which might pull Rubia Bella along a little quicker than she'd like.

Instant Expert : 

Dancing Feet's previous A/W (and course) success is a positive here, whilst Serenading's 10lb hike for back to back wins is an obvious concern, especially as this is a far tougher contest than her previous races.

Now we'll take a brief, closer look at each of the four in alphabetical order, shall we?

Adelante : Trainer George Baker's 7 from 27 record here over the last 12 months is actually a little misleading as in the whole five years from 2015 to 2019 inclusive, his handicappers were only 4 from 59 (6.8%) here  including 2 from 22 at Class 4, 2 from 16 over 7f and 0 from 14 with female runners.

For her part, Adelante has lost her last eleven races and was was an 80/1 11th of 14 home here over course and distance, last time out a fortnight ago. One to avoid.

Dancing Feet : has a better profile than the runner above, but that's not hard really. An overall 2 from 4 (1 from 2 here) on the A/W is promising and she's from the formidable Archie Watson /Hollie Doyle team, which is 6 from 31 (19.4%) here overall, including 3 from 9 at Class 4, 3 from 17 with fillies and although they're 0 from 6 at 7f, they have won 4 of 15 at 6f.

She has won at both 6f and 7f on the A/W and has won under Hollie Doyle. Both career wins have come when not wearing cheekpieces (0/4 in them), but they're on again today, as they have been in all her handicap outings, including when beaten by 3.5 lengths in seventh behind the re-opposing Clinician last time out and she's on worse terms this time around. That alone suggests she'd not be our winner here today, irrespective of how she stacks up against the others.

Rubia Bella : is very lightly raced and therefore a little of an unknown quantity. A half-length runner-up on her sole start as a 2yr old (here at Kempton at Class 4 over 6f), she then won fairly comfortably on her seasonal reappearance over 6f at Wolverhampton, but was quite well beaten last time out when 6.5 lengths off the pace at this grade, track and trip two months ago.

She was 4.5 lengths behind Dancing Feet that day (she did have Adelante 3.25 lengths further back, mind), but she's 4lbs better off at the weights here, so should be closer, but the yard's 2 from 19 record over course and distance since 2015 is a worry.

And last, but my no means least, we have the form horse Serenading, who comes here on the back of four progressively better runs (3211), seeking a hat-trick after back to back wins at Newcastle over this distance, once at Class 6 and once at Class 5. On form/progression, I think there's more to come from her, but she's 0/4 going right handed, 0/2 here, 0/2 at Class 4 and runs off a mark 10lbs higher than last time out.

In her defence, she has finished 43211 with PJ McDonald on her back and he's 21 from 134 (15.7%) in handicaps here since 2016, including 6 from 34 (17.7%) at this trip.

Summary

If I was to put the four runners in an order that I think they might finish, then i'd go with Serenading, Dancing Feet, Rubia Bella and then Adelante, who I'd be surprised if she wasn't in the last two home.

I don't have much separating Dancing Feet and Rubia Bella and I don't expect either to make the frame, but Serenading is the standout of the four and although she'll face tough opposition from the two market principals, I think that at odds of 5/1 or bigger, she could well be worth a small punt. I see her as a 7/2 to 4/1 chance, so 5's could offer some value, win or lose.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
3 replies
  1. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Chris – Please excuse my ignorance what does A/E & IV stand for ? Being lazy not looking back through the comprehensive guide Matt provides.

    Many Thanks – I really like this new feature, getting some sucess now also.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.