Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 23rd August 2021

As expected, Space Blues was the 11/8 winner at York on Saturday, but I didn't actually back it myself. I did however back the runner-up and the third placed horse at 25/1 E/W and 14/1 E/W, both came home at 17/2, so a good day all round for this column.

Monday's free feature is access  for ALL readers to the PACE tab for ALL races, including our free ones aka...

  • 1.00 Chepstow
  • 1.45 Brighton
  • 5.45 Ballinrobe
  • 7.15 Ballinrobe

And as I'm not really a fan of maiden fillies races, nor am I too comfortable with Irish racing, I'll be focusing on the 1.00 Chepstow, which is a 7-runner, Class 5, 5f, Flat Handicap for 3 yr olds. The going is expected to be good to soft and these are the contenders for the £3,240 first prize...

My initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the top three on the card, the only three distance winners, including two course and distance winners. They also have the best form coming into this race, all have raced pretty recently and have a yard and/or jockey with good recent results. Of those three Blue Moonrise edges it on actual results, but that is tempered by a step up in class and the fact she carries top weight, even after her jockey's 7lb claim.

We'll start our runner previews with that top weighted filly, Blue Moonrise, who has gone really well this summer after a near-four month break from the end of March. She was third of ten here over C&D on her return in July, but then won over 6f at Windsor and also here over C&D just 4 days ago. 7lb claimer Gina Mangan was in the saddle for both C&D runs and she's in place again. A step up in class and an extra 6lbs makes this tougher but she's in winning mood.

Kath's Toyboy got off the mark at the eighth time of asking when wearing first-time blinkers over an extended 5f (5f 60yds) at Brighton last time out. She raced prominently that day, as you need to at Brighton and stayed on well to win by a length. She's up 4lbs here, but should still be involved.

Glamorous Breeze has been in the first two home in each of her last four starts, including one win here over course and distance a month ago. She was raised 7lbs for that win and she was then beaten by two lengths last time out, being caught and headed in the final furlong. She goes off the same mark here, though and is possibly the one to beat.

Bluebird Day makes her handicap debut after three runs at Salisbury over 6f and 7f and after defeats of 11, 4.25 and 11 lengths, an opening mark of 62 does her no favours. Granted she's from a good yard with a decent course record, but I think this might be beyond her.

Mahale is still a maiden after 15 attempts and even though her mark has dropped from 77 to today's 61, I'd be very surprised if she wasn't a 16-race maiden after the race. She hasn't raced for ten weeks since only finishing fourth of seven at Brighton in a poor race whose runners are subsequently 1 from 17.

Tenth Century is also still a maiden after eight starts and has been beaten by 13, 7.5 and 7 lengths in his last three runs. He's up in class here and he's going to need more than a 2lb drop in weight and the booking of an in-form 3lb claimer to save him here...

Toptime, like Mahale & Tenth Century above, is also up in class after failing to make the frame at Class 6 last time out. In his case, he was 7th of 10 here over course and distance, 3½ lengths behind the re-opposing Blue Moonrise four days ago. He might well be 6lbs better off with the winner here, but I don't that making much difference for a horse yet to make the frame in ten starts on turf, even if his yard are in good nick...

I've seen nothing above to sway me from my "first three on the card" suggestion and I expect Instant Expert to back those thoughts up...

...which it does from a win perspective, with only those three having any green. Glamorous Breeze would appear to have been tried at both class and trip without too much success, but closer inspection shows that despite just one win at each, she does always tend to be in the mix, as shown by the place stats...

My three are drawn in stalls 1, 4 and 5 here and I'd say that both a win and place perspective that would favour Kath's Toyboy in stall 4, albeit from a fairly small sample size

And in both instances, stall 1 looks preferable to 5. As for pace, fairly predictably for a 5f sprint, it pays to be up with the pace...

...from both a win/place viewpoint and when we combine pace with draw, we are told that...

...the two best pace/draw make-up are to lead from a middle draw or two sit in from a high draw. Based on our runners' last few races, here's how they fit in to that heat map...

It looks like Bluebird Day might look to set the pace, but 5f might end up being too sharp, creating a target for those in behind to advantage.

Summary

I'm pretty confident that it's between the top three on the card and it would appear the bookies also think that too. Of the three, I think I want to side with Blue Moonrise, she's clearly in good heart and gets on well with today's jockey/course/distance.

I also think Kath's Toyboy will race to similar tactics to LTO and be more prominent than his average on the pace/draw heatmap would suggest and if that's the case, I'd have him to edge out Glamorous Breeze for the runner-up slot, despite a 4lb rise in weight.

So, it's Blue Moonrise / Kath's Toyboy / Glamorous Breeze for me and they're currently priced at 10/3 , 3/1 and 3/1 respectively.

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