Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 23rd July 2021

Friday’s free feature of the day is the Horses For Courses report. As you’d expect it highlights runners that have strong records at certain tracks. Personally speaking I am using this report more and more these days, especially at the quirkier courses that are more likely to produce course specialists.

As usual there are a selection of completely free races on Friday where all free registered users can can get full access to the racecards. These races are:

1.00 Uttoxeter
1.10 Thirsk
3.50 Uttoxeter
7.15 Cork
7.22 Newmarket
7.30 York

The 7.30 at York is a nice listed race so would have appealed as a race to go through but there is likely to be an extremely short priced favourite and with just 7 runners entered each way alternatives will be thin on the ground.

The 7.22 at Newmarket will therefore be the subject of this article. It’s a five runner, class 3 novice stakes set to be run over 12f. Not at all the sort of race I’d normally look to get involved in but there are some top stables represented and it’s likely the winner of this will go on to bigger and better things. The last three winners of this have rated 89, 111 and 87 so expect an above average winner.

Newmarket is often a track where the leaders don’t come back to the pack, even over longer distances, so we’ll need to take a look at the pace map. With several of these having had just two or three career runs there is a fair chance tactics change here but we can only go off what we’ve seen before. Given tactics do often change from race to race in the early stages of a horse’s career I’ll showcase the pace data rather than the graphic, allowing us to see where each runner has been placed early on in each of their races so far.

Auriferous seems most likely to take them along and he may well get an uncontested lead here. The course and distance pace data shows that early leaders have the best win and place percentages and they’ve been very profitable to follow producing a WIN PL of 70.85.

As previously mentioned, tactics can often change on these lightly raced runners and we see that with Constanta who was held up on his first two runs but raced prominently last time out. Line Of Descent has raced prominently in both starts to date whilst Adrastus and Thousand Oaks seem likely to be more patiently ridden.

Before we look at each of the runners, I want to take a look at the Instant Expert data for the sires of each runner. With so little form on offer this could be as enlightening as each runner’s races to date.

It’s no surprise these have ended up in a class 3 novice – some top sires on show here. The first thing that stands out is Camelot’s offspring are far less successful across each criteria which could be a negative for Constanta for all Camelot has sired his fair share of good horses - he's maybe just not quite as consistent at passing on his talents or it could be that he gets sent to less good mares.

Nathaniel enjoyed a decent amount of dig in the ground and so do his offspring more often than not as they are less successful on good to firm than the offspring of Golden Horn, Dubawi and Kingman. So possible ground concerns for Line Of Descent.

Golden Horn’s offspring have the best record in class 3 races so that’s a positive for Auriferous. He’s followed by Kingman (Thousand Oaks), Dubawi (Adrastus) and then Nathaniel with Camelot once again trailing.

Dubawi’s progeny do particularly well at Newmarket but Golden Horn, Kingman and Nathaniel aren’t far behind. As far as distance is concerned Golden Horn has by far the best record with his runners producing a 26% win rate at 12f. That’s well above the 16% of Dubawi and Nathaniel and the 13% from Kingman, who does tend to have many speedier types. Golden Horn and Dubawi offspring also have the best record in small fields.

Relying solely on this data it’s pretty clear that this is a near ideal setup for anything sired by Golden Horn so that’s good news for Auriferous backers. Adrastus also has lots of positives here being by Dubawi. I’d have some slight concerns, breeding wise, about the ground for Line Of Descent and maybe the distance for Thousand Oaks. Most criteria is a concern seemingly for Constanta so we'll hope to see some already good form from her on the track.

Now onto the runners.

Adrastus

By Dubawi who ranked well in Instant Expert for sires but he’s out of a staying mare rated just 73.

We are able to see all performances from the dam’s offspring and it’s worth noting that nothing as yet as rated higher than 84. Given the subsequent ratings of previous winners of this race Adrastus doesn’t look like he'll be good enough to win this. That is backed up by his form as both runs to date have been extremely modest and this trip and ground have already been explored so there isn’t great scope for improvement.

Auriferous

The most exposed in the field with seven runs to date but he’s also been very consistent and being by Golden Horn, he looks bred to be very suited to these conditions. His mare was rated 89 and Auriferous is the sole result of that mare.

His form has been a little disappointing though, yet to shed his maiden tag and held last time out in a handicap off a mark of 78, albeit a decent handicap. It’s probably fair to say he’s not going to be a 90+ rated runner, unless it’s over further, and there are surely going to be some more promising types in this.

Line Of Descent

Instant Expert flagged a potential ground worry but some Nathaniel’s do enjoy fast ground and Line Of Descent has so far only run on good or better. The dam’s other two runners to have earned handicap marks have so far only managed to earn marks in the 60s which raises concerns about Line Of Descent’s ability ceiling.

On the course he made a very promising start, finishing 3rd surrounded by runners rated 85, 95, 78 and 83 respectively. In doing so he has probably already outperformed any half siblings to date. He looked likely to improve for the run and for further that day. He then ran okay over this distance on fast ground and looked the winner a couple of furlongs from home but didn’t quite see it out. It was by no means a bad effort but he did look as though a drop in trip might suit that day so mixed messages regarding best distance from the two runs in his career.

Constanta

She’s a half sister to Skardu (group 1 placed at a mile) but Camelot’s sire data did trail behind the others here in Instant Expert.

Ran okay on debut in a hot maiden on the Rowley course over ten furlongs and again followed some fairly decent types home on her second run, stepped up to this trip but racing on soft ground. Thousand Oaks was half a length ahead of her that day. On her most recent start she raced on fast ground, finishing runner up, earning a mark of 80 in the process. She’s in good hands to progress and looks well capable of running  above her current mark in time, although a drastic step up from third run to fourth might not be on the cards.

Thousand Oaks

There was perhaps a slight distance worry on the sire’s side of things but both runs to date have come over this kind of trip so it doesn’t look a concern. If anything she has looked in need of even further.

She made a promising debut at Kempton, probably not running to a particularly high mark but very much looking as though the outing would do her good. She followed that up with a third at Haydock on soft ground, narrowly ahead of Constanta. On faster ground here she wouldn’t be guaranteed to confirm that form, especially if they don’t go much of a gallop which seems fairly likely. She is open to the most improvement though it seems.

Summary

A difficult race to work out. Adrastus is pretty easy to oppose whilst Auriferous sets a decent standard on much of his form and should get a tactical advantage but it would be disappointing if nothing was able to improve past what he has shown so far.

If I was awarding each of these runners a handicap mark I’d probably give the highest rating to Line Of Descent and given nothing is more lightly raced there is no reason why he can’t keep on improving further.

He does have to give 5lbs to the fillies though and given there isn’t a massive amount between some of these on form that could hand the initiative to the females. It’s interesting that Constanta and Thousand Oaks have already met, albeit on soft ground. On this fast ground, in a possibly tactical race, Constanta may end up reversing form. A slightly surprising selection given the sire data in Instant Expert but Camelot has produced some very good horses Constanta should be able to run to higher marks than 80 this season.

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