Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 23rd October 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report is Saturday's offering and it brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following 'free' races...

  • 1.34 Kelso
  • 1.45 Cheltenham
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 2.40 Doncaster
  • 3.19 Kelso
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

I set fairly stringent criteria for my settings on the (TJC) report, so that I'm not wading through too many possibles and Saturday is no exception, as I've just the one to consider...

Storm Control has a good record at Cheltenham, but it's not the type of race I normally play in (race selection is massively important), so I'm reverting to the 'free' list, where the third of them catches the eye. It's easily the best standard of race and we've extreme ground conditions too, so with those factors in mind, we're Berkshire bound for the 2.35 Newbury, a 7-runner, Group 3, flat race for 3yo+ horses over a mile and a half on heavy (soft in places) ground with almost £40k heading towards one of the following...

Now, I'm expecting bottom (and best off) weight Siskany to be a short (possibly odds on) favourite, but that doesn't always pan out in testing conditions and even if he does win, there's a chance of an E/W play or forecast to be had.

Extra Elusive won a couple of Gr 3 races in August last year, but has struggles of late finishing last of four and last of six in two Gr3 races over 1m2f/1m2.5f before running 7th of 8 in Listed company last time out. This is tougher, even if he has won here before and has also scored over this trip (albeit on A/W). No heavy ground form, but 2 from 7 on soft and...

Ilaraab is a course winner over 1m2f, has won over this trip and is two from four on soft ground, but hasn't tackled heavy yet. Won six handicap races on the bounce from July 2020 to May of this year, but hasn't made the leap to Class 1 racing just yet, but has been third in successive Gr3 contests, including going down by just over a length here at Newbury over 1m3f two starts ago. By Wootton Bassett, whose progeny have done really well on the Flat...

Max Vega is quite lightly raced after just ten starts in over two years and has been running well enough without managing to win any of seven starts since opening his career with finishes of 211, culminating in a Gr3 success over 1m2f at Newmarket in October 2019. Seven runs and two years later, he needs to get back into the winners' circle, but I doubt that's happening here, even if his best form on been on softer than good. No heavy form either.

Morando dead-heated in this very contest way back in 2018 and landed two more Gr3 prizes since, but has also been beaten fifteen times since and is winless in ten over the last two years. He did make the frame on his only heavy ground start and is 2 from 8 on soft and with his yard amongst the winners and his jockey liking this venue, he might get involved for the minor honours...

Wells Farhh Go won four of his first seven starts, including 2 x Gr3 and a Listed contest, but hasn't performed to that level for well over two years now. Add in a 0 from 2 on soft and no heavy ground runs allied to his regular jockey being deployed elsewhere and it's hard to fancy a horse beaten by 17 lengths at Ascot (8L behind Ilaraab who was third) three weeks ago.

Inchicore has heavy ground form from landing a Class 4 handicap over today's trip at Leicester just over a year and she won over 1m5f on soft at Lingfield this May too. Her best run to date was a 6 length defeat (5th of 7) on her Gr3 debut at York two weeks later and her only other run since saw her 6th of 7 in a Listed event at Chester, but in her defence, she was only beaten by just over two lengths when a little one-paced over 1m6½f but would need to improve to get near today, as she's well out at the weights.

Siskany is only 3 yrs old, receives weight all round and is well in at the weights. He's rated (OR) at 111, 5lbs better than next best Ilaraab but carries some 6lbs less and an 11lb swing takes some undoing. His form has been excellent since finishing fifth on debut last September, he is 111421 with a length and a quarter his worst defeat. Admittedly all his form is at handicap level, and he's only 1 from 3 at Class 2, but has a win and a place from two soft ground runs (no heavy form) and won over today's trip last time out. Yard stats are excellent...

So whilst Siskany appeals due to his number of wins etc, he's unproven at this level and on heavy ground, which might make him vulnerable if any of the others are better suited and the easiest/best way of checking is via Instant Expert, of course...

The field only has two heavy ground runs between them (Inchicore won, Morando was placed), so I've expanded to include soft ground form and although his best form came a while ago, Morando ticks more boxes than the rest, whilst over the past couple of years alone...

...you'd probably look at Ilaraab, who is drawn in stall 2 just outside the fav Siskany, but is that a good place to be here for this contest?

I'd say probably not, as stall 5 aside, you're better off higher than box 2. You can, of course, overcome the draw over such a lng distance by approaching the race with the correct tactics and our pace analyser suggests...

...that being up with the pace is the best bet. An average pace score of 3.00 or higher (the higher the better) would be deemed advantageous here and here's how our field have raced in their last few outings...

Combining pace & draw creates this heatmap...

...favouring the mid to high drawn leader/prominent runner, so had Wells Farhh Go and/or Extra Elusive been in any kind of form, then they'd certainly be of interest. I don't think either are good enough to get near, which would then be another positive for Siskany.

Summary

Siskany should win this, BUT on Class 1 debut with no heavy ground experience and a far from perfect record at Class 2, there's no way I want to be backing him at a current best price of 10/11. I'm not particularly interested in laying him either, though, so let's set the fav to one side.

After that, I've not much between Ilaraab and Morando ahead of a fairly modest bunch for a Gr3 contest, if truth be told it's little better (if any better) than a bog-standard Class 2 handicap, a level where Ilaraab has 4 wins from 5 including a win here and 2 from 2 on soft ground, so Ilaraab is the preferred option for forecast purposes.

I can get 4/1 about Ilaraab, so a 20% chance as opposed to the assumed/implied 52+% for the fav, so I'm actually going to take the 4/1 on offer here, as it seems good value.

As for Morando, I think he might just miss out, but at 10/1 might still be worth a small E/W or place only saver bet.

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