Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 24th June 2021

Thursday is Instant Expert day, where we open up our unique relevant form tool to ALL readers for ALL races including, of course, the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 2.00 Newcastle
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Leicester

The race at HQ looks the best of the quartet, so today's focus falls upon the 4.10 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Flat handicap over 7f on Good ground. Top prize is £10,800 and these are the horses trying to land it...

Slightly different approach today, but hopefully arriving at a satisfactory conclusion. I'm going to use the card and toolbox to quickly eliminate runners from my consideration, leaving me a hopefully short list of horses to choose from. There is, of course, always the danger of discarding the winner at an early stage and the equally possible prospect of me not liking any of them!

Just looking at the card, I'm immediately going to discard three of the bottom four runners, starting with No Nonsense, who throws the occasional good run in, but comes here after finishing 12th of 14 two classes lower than this and his last 2.5 seasons don't suggest that he's up to much.

Also coming here after finishing well down the field last time out is Shark Two One, who hasn't reproduced his form as a juvenile and also steps up in trip...

And the third discard is going to be Sun Power, who like No Nonsense above, steps up two classes after a poor run LTO, he's 0 from 9 on the Flat and is running for his third trainer in ten months and has only had a couple of decent runs in the last year...

Once I remove those from my thoughts, my card looks like this...

You can remove any runner from the card by clicking the X icon. I've got a mild reservation over Albadri's 113 day layoff, but I'll let that slide for now, whilst I look at Instant Expert, our feature of the day...

Ametist is the standout horse here and I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't a fairly warm favourite, so it might serve us well to look at the place stats, both for general form...

and more specifically in Flat Handicaps...

Albadri's general record is modest, albeit at mainly higher levels than this. His only handicap run was a win on the A/W at Class 3, but has been well beaten twice since, so he's out of contention for me here too and Keyser Soze will also depart at this point. His record at Class 2 is pretty poor and whilst he has proven he gets 7f, he's not good enough for me off his current mark and would need to go back down to Class 3.

All of which leaves me with the following in draw order (as that's where we're heading next!)...

So, we've runners in stalls 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 and 10 and the draw stats don't actually suggest too much of a bias from a win point of view...

...but a low draw is definitely beneficial for place purposes. As for pace, there's a definite pattern forming...

The IV figures are the easiest way to make a deduction with 1.00 being par or what you'd expect. Leaders win significantly more often and have the best place stats. Hold-up horses are next best on both sets of figures with those caught between the two faring worst. We can combine draw and pace together to show what has worked best here in the past...

And when we overlay our six remaining contenders onto those heatmaps, they look like this...

From the two charts there (win on the left, place on the right), the two least likely to succeed are Fox Champion and Equiano Springs, so I'll remove them from my list now. This now takes us down to a final four without even looking at the horses. It's a risky ploy, but you can do the above in your head in less than a minute, enabling you to quickly look at he shortlist you've created before moving to the next race. This is handy when there's plenty of racing on.

In fact, based on the above, I'm going to put Dulas as fourth place or first reserve if one of my top three pull out.

Summary

We've very quickly got ourselves three against the field, we'll have a quick look at them and then decide whether to play or fold.

Ametist is 3111 in his short career so far and that simple look at his form explains why he'll be popular with punters, but closer inspection shows that his first three runs were at Class 5, before landing a Class 3 handicap here at Newmarket last time out. He was sent off at Evens that day off a mark of 87 and just about hung on to win by a nose. He's got the rail draw to help him here, but he's up three pounds and one class for that narrow win and that leaves no margin for error.

Kimifive hasn't won any of his last 20 races stretching back to early May 2019, which doesn't immediately inspire confidence, but he has made the frame several times during that run and only lost last season's Stewards Cup at Goodwood by a head. His form this season is much improved, though, finishing third on both occasions (both C2 hcps) and he's now a pound lower than when losing by less than two lengths LTO.

On A Session toiled on the soft ground at Ascot in the Victoria Cup early last month, but has run well in his other three Class 2 handicap outings this season, making the frame each time. He stumbled at the start last time out and conceded too much ground, but still recovered into the race enough to finish third. He goes off the same mark here, but now has the benefit of the 3lb claim held by the talented and in-form Marco Ghiani and he could well spring a surprise here.

I'm actually pretty happy at taking these three from the eleven we started with, so let's make a decision.

I'm not convinced Ametist wins here, based on how tight his last race was and he's up in class and weight. Two firms are open and he's 5/4 and 13/8 and I really don't want to know at that price. I don't think Kimifive wins here either, he seems to have forgotten how to. He looks a solid placer to me, but odds of 11/2 and 15/2 aren't quite long enough for me to go E/W on him, but you'll have your own cut-off point, I'm sure.

All of which brings me to On A Session and I'm siding with him to win this. He managed to defy a really poor start to still make the frame and the booking of Marco Ghiani could just swing it. He's 8/1 with Bet365, so you could even go E/W if you wanted.
 

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