Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 24th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

We think that the TS report is so helpful that we make it freely available to all readers every Wednesday, a day where winners can often be hard to find and this is in addition to our usual selection of free races, which will be...

  • 12.30 Hereford
  • 2.00 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 5.30 Dundalk

As is often the case, my own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated very many horses to consider, just two in fact!

So, from 14-day handicap form...

...and from course 1-year handicap form...

...we've got two look at, starting with Josie Abbing, a 7yr old who runs in a 4-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f (4327 yards) on Good ground, shown on your cards as the 2.40 Hereford...

We know from above that Fergal O'Brien is in great form with 10 winners and 7 placers from 30 handicappers, but a quick dive into them shows that they include...

  • 7/21 over hurdles
  • 7/17 in fields of 8 runners or fewer
  • 6/11 at Class 3
  • 4/9 with 7yr olds
  • 4/15 over hurdles
  • and 3/7 with females
    BUT...
  • just 2/13 at trips shorter than 2m4f
  • and 0/4 with today's jockey.

Josie Abbing has only made two starts for Fergal O'Brien, but was a half length runner-up on yard debut over this course and distance six weeks ago. She was sent of as the 11/20 fav that day as she raced off today's mark of 100, but was beaten by 9 lengths on unsuitably soft ground last time out.

Of her handicap hurdle form where's has won 2 of 16, Instant Expert tells us...

...both her wins have been on good ground (she made the frame in both Gd to Fm runs, in case it dries out), she's 0/2 at Class 3 (both wins were at Class 5), she's 0/2 here (but was that 0.5 lengths runner-up over C&D on her last visit) and she's some 9lbs higher than her last win 9and a stone more than her other hcp hrd success), so not much to get excited about here.

She's a confirmed hold-up horse, which hasn't been too bad a tactic at Hereford over the years, but leaders have fared best and based on her last two runs (both wins) Nikap might blast her rivals out straight from the start giving Josie too much to do...

There is a danger that all three might go off too quickly for her, forcing her to get too involved too soon.

*

Now we head over the water for a rare Insights foray into Irish racing, where the 3 yr old filly, No Browsin takes on 13 rivals (Hell Left Loose is a reserve) in a 45-65 rated, 3yo+ A/W (polytrack) handicap over a left handed 7f and here's the card for the 2.30 Dundalk...

We've already seen that trainer Sarah Lynam has 8 winners and 8 further placers from just 23 handicappers here at Dundalk over the last year and this 34.8% strike rate is not only excellent but is also in stark contrast to her overall 7% strike rate (19/270) and her 8/23 here over the past 12 months include of relevance today...

  • 7/20 in fields of 12-14 runners
  • and 2/6 with females
    BUT...
  • 0/2 over 7f
  • no 3 yr old runners
  • and no rides by today's jockey, Billy Lee but at least the rider is in good form elsewhere.

No Browsin is very lightly raced so far, having been seen just four times to date. She was 3rd of 14 over C&D on debut 11 months ago, beaten by just half a length and a short head, but that has turned out to be a poor maiden with just 3 winners from 84 races since.

She took five months off after debut and then struggled in two races on the turf at Cork in the summer, before taking another 161 days off prior to re-appearing here at Dundalk a week ago, where she was beaten by less than 3 lengths over 6f, finding no extra late on. It's highly possible that she needed the run and will improve here, though.

With a formline of 3057, Instant Expert isn't going to tell us very much at all from a win perspective, so here are her stats from a place point of view...

...again, not a great deal to go on, but she has at least had some relative A/W success already. She makes a handicap debut off a mark of 62 here, meaning she's going to be carrying top weight. As she has precious little form of her own, to be top rated suggests a poor contest against many runners well tried and failed. In fact, the most successful horse in the field is the 8yr old Fit For Function with an 8.5% strike rate (7 from 82), but the rest of the field are just 13/273 (4.76% SR) combined, which speaks volumes.

No Browsin is drawn in stall 8 of the 14 runners and a middle draw has been successful enough in the past...

... and even if her particular stall doesn't have the best win record...

...I'd say she was in the right area to start from. pace is going to be very important, but with just two A/W and two turf runs, it's quite possible that she hasn't yet fully adopted a running style, but she scored a 2 and a 3 on her two A/W runs to date...

...and if she runs to that mid-div/prominent position again, then I'd advise the latter rather than the former, based on past races here...

...if she can crack on with it, she'd have more chance, but I'd imagine this pair will be setting the fractions...

Summary

The bookies have Josie Abbing as 9/4 second favourite, but the Geegeez SR figures have her as third best of our and I'd sadly be inclined to agree with the SR. The 11/8 fav Nikap reverts to the smaller obstacles today, but should be running away with this one and I'd expect the 4/1 Golden Emblem to be the biggest danger.

As for No Browsin, she could be something but she could be nothing. On the plus die, she doesn't have a string of failures already behind her, but then again she ahs no experience and makes a handicap debut off what looks a tough mark. She's drawn midfield and I'd not be surprised if she finishes midfield (or first or last etc). This isn't a race I'd want to get too involved in (not just because it's an Irish one). That said, if I was to play, I'd want to find a firm paying 4 places, if not 5 so I could have a small E/W punt on the 5 yr old mare, Pimstrel, assuming I could get 14/1 or bigger, that is!

But of our two possibles we started with : NO BETS.

 

 

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