Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 24th September 2021

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

In addition to this report, we also offer the following full free racecards to all readers...

  • 2.05 York
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 4.02 Worcester
  • 4.20 Haydock
  • 5.07 Worcester
  • 5.15 Dundalk

And here is my H4C report for Friday...

I don't often get many qualifiers, but as I've got a couple at Newcastle on the standard to slow tapeta, let's quickly assess their chances here.

The 6.00 race is a 3yo+, Class 5 handicap over a mile, where Harry George will put his four from six track record on the line. This record includes...

  • 4/4 at Class 6, but 0/1 at Class 5
  • 3/5 over this 1m course and distance
  • 2/3 when unplaced LTO
  • 2/2 in September/October
  • 1/2 for his current trainer

His racecard entry is...

In addition to the above stats, trainer Brian Ellison is 22 from 89 (24.7% SR, A/E 1.46) with Class 5, AW handicappers sent off shorter than 12/1, from which those racing on Tapeta are 16 from 62 (25.8%) and 13/43 (30.2%) here at Newcastle.

His sire, Big Bad Bob's offspring are 9 from 35 (25.7% SR, A/E 1.89) in Class 5/6 handicaps on tapeta over trips of a mile and shorter.

Harry George was 7th of 11 here over course and distance at Class 4 two starts ago and then last home of nine at Wolverhampton most recently. He's now down in class and down 2lbs to below his last winning mark, which should at least make him a little more competitive, although he's still above his last A/W win.

His form under today's conditions are as follows...

...which is as good as any of his rivals here. He's drawn out in stall nine of eleven, which is a little wider than the preferred area of stalls 3 to 8...

He tends to either race prominently (3) or be held up (1) and both of those tactics work fine here, although out and out leaders fare best of all...

...but if he races prominently from his high draw here, he's likely to struggle, as such runners are 0 from 28...

...so he'd be better off held-up, where the strike rate of 10.81% isn't brilliant but it's far better than zero. All those pace/draw combo stats are here...

Low drawn leaders fare best, but there aren't many of them. From those combos with a decent sample size, you want to be a prominent runner from a middle draw.

*

The 7.30 race is a Class 6, 7f handicap where featured horse Brazen Bolt is the top weight. This 4yr old gelding has 3 wins and a place from seven runs here overall and he has finished 42111 in five handicap runs here, all over course and distance. Three of his last four career outings have been here over course and distance, with him winning all three, the other was on turf at Thirsk two starts ago, when a half-length runner-up, so he comes here in great form as shown on the racecard...

He's up 5lbs for his most recent win (this Tuesday(, but is boosted by the booking of course specialist Danny Tudhope to take the ride. Danny is 43 from 195 on the Tapeta here since the start of 2019 with a 22& strike rate that rises to 28.9% at Class 6 (15 from 52), 24.2% on standard to slow going (23 from 95) and 23.6% over trips of 7f and beyond (30 from 127). His yard are in steady if not unspectacular form and they'll be expecting another bold show here.

His relevant form looks like this...

Impressive numbers indeed with the only blot being his record in this basement grade, but he has won 2 of 6 at Class 5, so he's clearly no mug. And the end column shows that he's got that extra 5lbs on taking his mark to 72 that he'll have to lug from the widest of the ten stalls here, which is a negative for me...

...as I think he's really want to be in the 2 to 7 sector of the draw, but it is what it is, he just needs to make the most of what he has been given and tackle the race in the right manner.

Prominent racers do best in these 7f handicaps here at Newcastle...

...and with three prominent shows in his last four runs, I'd expect him to run that way again here. After all, if it isn't broke...

When we combine pace and draw together, a 12% strike rate for high drawn prominent runners like our boy is as good as it gets from stall 10...

...but if he'd have got that central draw I mentioned his chances would more than double. That said, he knows the track/trip and has won better races than this, so I still expect a good effort.

Summary

In the first of the two Newcastle races we've considered, I don't fancy the chances of Harry George to be honest. He's badly out of form, still higher than his last winning AW mark and he's poorly drawn. I suppose he's second bottom of the market at 22/1 for a reason.

Most likely to succeed in this one for me is the 10/3 fav Bringitonboris with Twisted Dreams and Soaringstar the dangers. The latter is already as long as 15/2 and might interest some of you from an E/W or place perspective.

In our second race, I do like Brazen Bolt and I think that despite not being well drawn and bearing a 5lb penalty, he still has plenty to offer. 7/2 is about right for me and I'll have a little bit of that. He won't have it all his own way, though and the three ahead of him in the market (Moonbootz, Asmund & Daany) all have good chances.

 

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