Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 25th August 2021

Wednesday's free feature is the Trainer Stats report, which is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

In addition to this free report, we also have our usual free races of the day, which are...

  • 1.00 Catterick
  • 3.30 Catterick
  • 4.50 Lingfield
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 5.45 Bellewstown
  • 6.05 Wolverhampton

And I think I'll look at the Trainer Stats report today and the course one year handicap stats in particular...

Grant Tuer's record at Catterick has been excellent this past 12 months, he runs two on Wednesday and they're both in the same race, which also happens to be the best on the Catterick card. The 2.30 Catterick is a 9-runner, Class 4, 6 furlong, good (softer in places) ground, Flat handicap worth £4,347 to the winner, who will be one of these...

Let's start with Grant Tuer's record here over the last year, his twelve handicappers have finished 822166111811, so five of the last six have won and of those dozen runners, Sam James (riding Lezardrieux) has 5 wins and 2 places from 10, whilst Pierre Louis Jamin (Restless Endeavour) is 1 from 1. Both horses have a wealth of stats behind them as indicated by the red reports number under their name.

Initially, you'd say that the jockey bookings suggest Lezardrieux is the first string here, but Restless Endeavour looks in better form. The former steps up in class and hasn't previously won at Catterick, whilst the latter in a former course and distance winner. Both have raced in the last 25 days and the latter is rated 8lbs better by the assessor, but our SR figures have Lezardrieux as top rated.

Restless Endeavour is a 4 yr old filly who has three wins and a runner-up finish from seven runs this year and also won here over course and distance (C6, soft) just over a year ago. She runs off the same mark (82) as LTO when she was 3rd of 5, beaten by over 3.5 lengths at Newmarket in this grade, so she'd need to improve here.

If truth be told, her A/W record (3 from 6) is much better than her 2/11 on turf, but she's 4 from 11 over this trip and has won under today's jockey, but hasn't won off a mark higher than the 77 from two starts ago.

Lezardrieux wouldn't appear to be in as good form based purely on the 34602 results from his last five outings and he too has a better record on the A/W (4/10) than he does on turf (2/16). He did, however, run really well at Pontefract 10 days ago when beaten by just a lengths as runner-up of nine over 6f with the rest of the field 3.75 lengths and more behind.

He's winless in four visits to Catterick, but has made the frame on his last two appearances here. He is 1341 on good ground, has 3 wins at this trip, 5 of his 6 career wins under today's jockey and is well weighted here at 2lbs below his last winning mark.

Instant Expert would also suggest that Lezardrieux is the more likely of the two here...

Those 9lb and 5lb weight differentials are from their last turf wins, but Lezardrieux's last win was off a mark of 76 on the A/W at Wolverhampton. The going really won't suit Restless Endeavour here based on the above, but both get this 6f readily enough.

The draw shouldn't really give either of them an advantage over the other with them being drawn in stalls 2 and 3, but the draw stats for this race would suggest they'd both have preferred to be drawn a little higher...

The pace stats here suggest that it pays to get on with things with leaders winning a greater percentage of races than any other running style. Prominet racers also go well here and these sprints at Catterick are usually fiercely contested tear-ups...

...which might not be a bad thing for our pair, as in their last four outings...

Lezardrieux has either led (4) or raced prominently (3) whilst Restless Endeavour has three prominent runs, the hold-up exception was his worst run/result of the four too. So we've two runners drawn side by side at the low end of the draw and both like to race up towards the front end. The pace/draw heat map backs up my earlier assertion that a slightly higher draw would have been better...

...but it doesn't rule either out here...

Erich Bloch looks the likely pacesetter here, but Lezardrieux is the next in the list on pace score, so he's expected to be right up there too.

Summary

Two closely drawn runners from the same stable and in truth, I don't see much between the pair and I'd have both in the first five home here. My preference of the two has to be Lezardrieux, based on everything above. He's actually the 9/2 favourite here, as of just after 3.30pm, which has surprised me a little, I thought he had every chance here but was hoping/expecting 13/2 or 7/1. I'm not sure there's much value at 9/2, but you'll need to decide upon that yourself.

I think Restless Endeavour might just miss out on the places, she's carrying too much weight for me here and the main dangers to her stablemate are probably Embour (13/2) and Praxeology (11/2). The bookies have got this fairly tight with just a 3.5pts (9/2 to 9/1) spread across all 9 runners at Bet365 and I do agree that it could be that tight. You could make a case for any of them in reality, but I'd hope the winner came from Embour, Lezardrieux and Praxeology.

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3 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Blokeshead
    Blokeshead says:

    Can’t keep a good man down, can they?

    Cheer Chris – that was a seriously nice result.

  3. Blokeshead
    Blokeshead says:

    Yes – and I got the tricast on before Praxeology was withdrawn as well, and the bookie paid out on that too (which I assume is correct, but I admit the world of non-runners often confuses me). Limited to just one bookie who will still take my bets (definitely no BOG), I got about 5x my money back on the forecast and getting on for 12x on the tricast. All that in addition to a nice winning horse on the exchange, of course, half at the price this morning (5.20) and half at BSP (5.52). Nice.

    As said, thank you!

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