Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 25th May 2021

For Monday's race, I said..."my 1-2-3-4 is The Dancing Poet to beat Stormy Night and then Beat the Breeze to beat Bad Attitude...I'm happy to back The Dancing Poet at 13/2 and...I'm going to have to back Beat The Breeze at 25/1 e/w. The latter really is a bet to nothing based on what we know..."

The Dancing Poet did beat Stormy Night, but they could only finish 4th and 10th (of 10!), whilst Beat The Breeze did indeed beat the 8th placed Bad Attitude on his way to actually beating all nine rivals at 15/2, making my 25/1 e/w overnight bet look very good indeed. I got the main selection wrong, but was more than compensated, I hope you got on too.

However, just as we don't complain too much about the bad days, we don't rest on our laurels after a good result at Geegeez because there's always another challenge on the horizon. We're helped on Tuesdays by access to The Shortlist report and also to the following free "races of the day"...

  • 1.00 Southwell
  • 1.45 Musselburgh
  • 5.45 Ballinrobe
  • 6.45 Ballinrobe
  • 8.15 Ballinrobe
  • 8.35 Lingfield

Tomorrow's Shortlist report looks like this...

...and you might have noticed that the top three on the report all run in the same race and that the race in question is one of our six free races, so it would be remiss of me not to focus upon the 8.35 Lingfield, a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ horses over 5f on Standard Polytrack. And these are the competitors chasing a prize of £2,862...

Form : Four horses are without a win in their recent form line, but two of them (Vandad & Shamshon) are regular placers. Lethal Blast is the only LTO winner.
Class : Real Estate & Thegreyvtrain are up from Class 6, whilst Zulu Zander, Shamshon & Louis Treize drop down from Class 4.
Course Winners : The Nosey Parker & Real Estate
Distance Winners : Centurion Song, Zulu Zander & The Nosey Parker
Course & Distance Winners : Spurofthemoment, Shamshon, Lethal Blast & Thegreyvtrain
Vandad & Louis Treize haven't won at either course or distance.
Centurion Song is the only one without a run in the last four weeks.
Age : Only Louis Treize (5), Lethal Blast (5), Real Estate (6) and Shamshon (10) are older than 4 yrs old.
Win/place stats :  from a combined 287 races, the field has made the frame 99 times (34.5%), winning 40 times (13.9%).

Spurofthemoment carries top weight but is a pound and a class lower than when fourth of six (bt by 3.5L) over slightly further on quicker ground at Brighton last time out. She's a former course and distance winner whose form on the A/W reads 224131 and although she's 6lbs higher than her last win, she did win that race easily at a higher grade beating the re-opposing Shamshon by 2.25 lengths unchallenged.

Centurion Song won a Class 5 5f sprint at Southwell between Christmas and New Year and then only lost on the nod over the same C&D three weeks later off 4lbs higher. Had those races been more recent, he's be in my thoughts here, but a four month break isn't ideal for a horse who finished 5th of 7 after 190 days off.

Zulu Zander is now a non-runner

The Nosey Parker won here over 6f in November and then over 5f at Wolverhampton three weeks later, but hasn't seemed the same since and was beaten by the best part of six lengths off this mark just four days ago. Others look better suited.

Vandad has made the frame in four of his last five outings, but always seems to find at least one too good for him, as shown by his 46% place strike rate on the A/W despite him not yet winning any of his 15 career starts. He goes off the same mark as a 2 length defeat to lethal blast last time out and although he's better off at the weights today, you can't help but think he'll find a way of losing somehow.

Shamshon is another, like Vandad above, who has been getting close without winning of late, but was only beaten by half a length in a higher grade at Brighton last time out. He was three lengths ahead of Spurofthemoment that day, but the latter is better weighted today, so those placings could well be reversed, but Shamshon has definite place credentials again.

Real Estate won here over 7f back in January 2020, but hasn't won any of nine starts since, as he has slipped from Class 4 racing down to Class 6 off a mark of 75 down to 67. He was beaten by a length and a half off today's mark at Brighton last time out and now steps up in class. He's not one I'd be looking to back.

Louis Treize won on his second start and hasn't repeated the feat in twelve runs over 34 months since. 8th of 10, 10th of 11, 9th of 16 and 13th of 14 in his last four outings should tell its own story here and I don't think dropping 2lbs and 2 classes will arrest his slide.

Lethal Blast will be popular after a hat-trick of course and distance victories (one was on the Flat, though) in the last month, but she runs off a mark of 66 here, which is some 20lbs higher than she was a month ago. She's certainly the one to beat here on form, but this could well just be a purple patch, as she did open her career with 9 straight losses before these three wins.

Thegreyvtrain was a winner over C&D four starts ago and was then 7th of 9 at Wolverhampton. She then won at Windsor before finishing last of six at Bath three weeks ago. So she's certainly inconsistent. She last won off a mark of 60 and goes off 63 today and although she has struggled off marks higher than 60, her draw alongside a pace setting fav might carry her along into the places. She could equally well bomb out, but that is the nature of this horse!

I would have been interested in Zulu Zander from at least an E/W perspective at a decent (12's or higher) price, but his omission and what I've just written are currently suggesting a three-horse race here between Lethal Blast, Shamshon and Spurofthemoment, but I'll use the tools available to me before I jump to any decision.

Our three runners from the Shortlist report obviously head the charts on Instant Expert, but here's how the whole field looks...

Lethal Blast and Spurofthemoment again catch the eye. The Nosey Parker is flattered by virtue of a small sample size and whilst the other horse I was interested, Shamshon, looks out of his depth here, his A/W figures from a place perspective are very good for a horse with 93 career starts to his name...

This 5f trip at Lingfield can be tricky to "get" and from a professional view of it, this is what top jockey David Probert had to say for our Geegeez course profile..."

It's probably the most idiosyncratic of the all weather tracks because of the hill. It's pretty level from the mile and a quarter start and down the back, but from the four furlong to the two furlong poles you're running down that hill. Some horses don't handle the hill which makes it a tricky track to ride; many of the jockeys will start to make their move at about the three - halfway down the hill, on the home bend - trying to get some of their rivals off balance. That's where you'll see most of the manoeuvres, jostling for position, trying to either get an inside run or slingshot off the bend if a little wider.

In five and six furlong handicaps, you want to be handy, and perhaps ideally with a middle draw to cut the corner a little. That gives you the most options. They're both tricky starts, the five in a little chute on the crown of the bend, and the six just before the bend on the main track. Inside draws need to be very quick away and edge right a bit to get a position, because if you don't you'll be in a pocket and it'll be hard..."

That's how the pro reads it. In terms of actual data, the stats say...

*Centurion Song will run from stall 9 now, which isn't a great place to be. Stalls 1 and 2 do well by hugging the turns, whilst those in 5 to 7 are able to perform the slingshot manoeuvre mentioned above where they effectively run in a straight line from the stalls towards the apex of the second turn.

David's assertion that "you want to be handy" is certainly verified by our pace stats in similar contests...

...which basically say that the further back you race, the less likely you are to win or even make the frame with more than 50% of leaders hanging to a place at worst.  When you ally those draw and pace stats together the resultant data forms this heatmap...

...which pretty much speaks for itself and with likely favourite Lethal Blast having been allocated stall 1, her propensity to lead is another positive. That said, as you'll see below, Spurofthemoment also likes to get out and we could have a real sprint on our hands here...

It looks like we'll have a three-way battle with stalls 1 & 2 hoping to dash to the turn first, whilst Spurofthemoment will be hoping for that angled slingshot from stall 8. he'll have a bit further to travel but won't have to regulate his early speed as much as those on the inner. The other one I liked, Shamshon, doesn't look well placed at all.

Summary

I liked Zulu Zander from an E/W perspective, but he doesn't run now. I then had three in mind as my preferred trio against the field ie Lethal Blast, Shamshon and Spurofthemoment, but Shamshon isn't favoured from a win perspective nor from the pace/draw stats. He's definitely the weakest of the three and I'm now considering replacing him with Thegreyvtrain.

It's either Lethal Blast or Spurofthemoment for the win here and I really wish the latter had a low draw alongside the favourite, as I think that could be decisive. Lethal Blast is as short as 6/4 with the next in the betting as long as 15/2. This really should be the favs race to lose, but I don't want to get involved at that price.

Instead I'll back Spurofthemoment at 10/1 E/W and play the reverse forecast too. I'm also going to have another small 25/1 E/W bet on Thegreyvtrain. Lightning couldn't strike twice, could it?

Quick heads-up... I've got some family duties on Thursday and Friday, so it'll be late evening both days before this piece goes live, but don't worry, it WILL be here!

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3 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Hi Chris – got 25’s with PP so many thanks. Someone apart from GG top Analyst knew someone for the post price to go to 15/2
    Excellent stuff Chris

    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Top analyst? One can only assume you’re being kind.
      There are others here who know far more than I do about the game.

  3. Ricardo Singh
    Ricardo Singh says:

    Hi good morning I have been following your analyst systems.
    It is very informative especially the Run Style and Sire analyst .
    The selections are wagered single each way, Lucky 63 and perms.
    Keep it up.
    Regards Ricardo Singh

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