Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 25th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular geegeez racecard tab, because it is able to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And we make this open to all readers for all races every Thursday, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 1.35 Thurles
  • 3.35 Wolverhampton
  • 6.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.50 Chelmsford

The third of those races looks the best quality (on paper, at least), so I'm going have a crack at the 6.20 Chelmsford. Only 6 run, but it's a Class 2, 3yo+ handicap worth almost £10k. The trip is a left handed seven furlongs on standard going polytrack and here are your runners and riders etc...

...where on recent finishing positions alone, Trumble looks to be the form horse, but he is stepping up two classes, as is Papa Stour. Mehmento, on the other hand, has had three Group 3 runs this season and now drops down for his handicap debut, whereas Mum's Tipple made his handicap bow LTO and will seek to improve upon being second last of sixteen. Corvair has a fairly consistent string of recent form (albeit all losses) behind him and now makes a yard debut for the out of form Robert Cowell after leaving Team Crisford. All bar Alexander James have at least one win at this trip, whilst Trumble has won here over 7f. Papa Stour has wins at both track and trip but not at the same time.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, will give us a unique snapshot of how this bunch have performed previously under similar A/W conditions...

..and in handicaps...

Trumble, the form horse, probably looks the pick of them based on A/W form, but he's now two classes and 7lbs higher than his three length success over course and distance earlier this month. Corvair is only two pounds higher than his last win, but he has lost eleven races since then and that was back in early March 2020! Mehmento looks interesting despite having no A/W handicap form, whilst Papa Stour's 0 from 8 at this grade is a worry, even if he is 3lbs lower than his last win.

We've got a left handed 7f here and as is often the case on such tracks, stall 1 does pretty well in small field contests, but the place to be is probably in the 3 to 5 region, giving yourself a better racing angle towards the bend and this is borne out by the stats below...

...which could be good news for the likes of Corvair, Mehmento and Mum's Tipple, but in a small field like this, it's quite possible that race tactics aka pace will play a more important role in how this race unfolds. Chelmsford is known for favouring front runners and this article explains in far more/better detail than I ever could, but in graphical/numerical terms...

...leaders make the frame in almost half of their runs and the further back you run, the further back you tend to finish! And with that in mind, it's not a massive leap to come to the conclusion that a 3 to 6 draw for a front-runner might be very profitable, as shown below...

We know the draw already, of course, but what about running styles? Well, here's the geegeez advantage, because we log them for every runner from every race and here are the pace scores (4=led, 3=prominent, 2=mid-div, 1=held-up) for our six runners...

...where we've one confirmed front runner (Mehmento) and one (Trumble) that won't be too far off the pace. Not such good news for Mum's Tipple and/or Alexander James, though.

At this point, you've probably already jumped ahead of me and you're checking where Mehmento is drawn and possibly rubbing your hands at the fact he's got a plum draw in box 4, so what we'll do now is to put the runners in draw order and drop them onto that pace/draw heat map, as follows...

...which gives us Mehmento, the well drawn front-runner and Trumble, the form horse as the two we should probably focus on.

Summary

In an ideal world, we'll get a 1-2 with these two pace-setters, but who wins? Well, from a value perspective, you'd want the 13/2 Mehmento to prevail over the 11/8 favourite trumble (prices from hills, the only open book at 3.50pm), but can/will he?

Well he only made his debut 10 months go and has won three of six starts, including two from two on the A/W. They were both Class 5 non-handicap affairs at Southwell in Jan/Feb, before four runs on the turf at Class 1, which saw him finish as a runner-up, beaten by a neck in a group 3 at Newbury prior to landing a Listed race at Epsom in mid-June, but was well beaten in two more Gr 3 contests since. He's had a bit of a rest, a wind op and drops down in class here for his handicap debut.

He's got a mark of 104 here, but did run to a level of 108 earlier in the year, so if the rest/operation has the desired effect, that price of 13/2 might look massive tomorrow.

As for the fav, Trumble, he's two from five this year after an indifferent start to the year where he was last of nine, sixth of seven and fifth of six prior to a 106 day break from which he returned to win here over 6f off a reduced mark of 78 and he followed that up next/last time out with a 3 length C&D success here 19 days ago off a mark of 85. The runner-up that day has raced again off the same mark and could only manage to finish 6th of 9, so it might not have been a great race that Trumble won and another 7lb rise to a mark of 92 certainly leaves very little room for error.

There's probably not going to be much between them, but I'd rather be on at 13/2 than 11/8, I'd rather be on a leader than a chaser here at Chelmsford, I prefer the #4 draw to the #6 and I prefer a horse who has achieved a higher past performance than one needing 7lbs better than his previous best, so I'm siding with Mehmento at 13/2 ahead of the 11/8 fav Trumble.

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