Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 26th August 2021

A good day for RI at Newbury this afternoon, as the overnight 9/2 Lezardrieux won by a head from chief danger Embour in a 21/1 forecast. I thought the winner's stablemate Restless Endeavour might just miss out on the places, but as the horse I'd ranked third became a non-runner, my 1-2-3 came in. The tricast paid £112.48, but I didn't back it, hope some of you did, though.

Now to Thursday, where feature of the day, is free access to the Instant Expert tab for ALL readers for ALL races, including of course, the following 'races of the day'...

  • 1.45 Chelmsford
  • 2.30 Ffos Las
  • 4.50 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Lingfield
  • 5.32 Carlisle

The best of those would appear to be the opener of the fifth day of the Racing League aka the 5.10 Lingfield, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5f sprint for 3yo+ horses on Good ground. As ever, it's a decent pot at £25,770 and here are the contenders...

On recent results alone (which don't account for class/distance etc) Peerless, Shamshon, Electric Love and The Princes Poet look the ones to watch and the latter is the only LTO winner in the race. Show Me Show Me is the only one to have raced at a higher level last time around, but Peerless, Grandfather Tom, The Princes Poet and Electric Love all step up from Class 4, whilst Shamshon ran at Class 5 LTO.

All ten runners have previously scored over this minimum trip and Peerless has done it here at Lingfield (two starts ago on his only previous visit). Grandfather Tom hasn't raced for over nine months but aside from Peerless at nine weeks, the rest have been seen in the last month or so. Bottom weight here carries 19lbs less than top weight after jockey claims and whilst Son and Sannie is 14pts clear of his nearest rival on our SR figures, the next six runners only have a 13pt spread.

The Instant Expert tab reiterates the fact that all ten have won at this trip, but also illustrates the different in success ranging from Son and Sannie's 1 from 13 up to Electric Love's 2 from 2...

IE doesn't shine too good a light on Son and Shannie or Kool Moe Dee, but the top two on the card, Leodis Dream and Peerless catch the eye.

In these 5f sprints on good or slightly quicker ground here at Lingfield, those drawn lowest (particularly stalls 1 to 3) have fared best...

...which is good for the likes of Shamshon, Show Me Show Me and Leodis Dream. As you'd expect from these short dashes, it pays to set the pace or get as close to it as you can...

...so the following pace/draw heatmap won't really come as a surprise...

So, if any of our low drawn trip are pacemakers, they'd stand a great chance here. The bulk of the pace in this race looks like it might well come from stalls 3 and 4...

...but there's no out and out pace horse here. Five runners have a single "4" in recent runs, but stalls 3, 4 and 6 all have at least 3 scores of 3 or higher, suggesting the race should suit the likes of Leodis Dream, Grandfather Tom and The Princes Poet. Our pace/draw heatmap certainly backs up the claims of the first two of that trio too...

Summary

Using the tools alone, there's only one horse that I'd be interested in from a win perspective and that's Leodis Dream. He has been ticking boxes all the way along and was only beaten by a little more than half a length at this class/trip/mark at the Windsor Racing League meeting last week defying a 14/1 SP. He'll wear a tongue strap here and that could just make the difference and at 7/1, he's worth backing in my eyes.

Peerless is probably next best, course and distance winner two starts ago on his only visit to this track and he's 2 from 4 this season (having ended 2020 with a win and two runner-up berths), likes quicker ground and is 3 from 7 at the trip. He was a little unlucky to do down by a short head LTO having been forced wide and 5lb claimer Saffie Osbourne seems to get on well with him. He is however 7/2, so no E/W bet there and I suspect Son and Sannie might just grab the last spot in the frame. He won off a mark of 78 last year but struggled once he went up in the weights. That mark has nice come down and he almost capitalised at York recently when only beaten by a neck at 12/1. He's considerably shorter than that now at 5/1, so no E/W play there either , I'm afraid.

Some bookies will pay four places, but I think there's not much between the rest of the field. The only double digit odds horse I'd be remotely interested in would be the bottom weight Kool Moe Dee. he's only carrying 8-8, his yard do well here and his jockey does well for this trainer, but at 10/1 I can take it or leave it.

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3 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Robert Smith
    Robert Smith says:

    Well done yesterday Chris. Followed your suggestions and got the Exacta & Trifecta (a little less than the Tricast – still good). Excellent advice again. Thanks Bob S.

  3. Jez
    Jez says:

    Hi Chris, I’m still using your race analysis for the reverse forecasts (you’re healthily in profit) and will continue doing so.
    Keep it up mate.

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