Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 26th June 2021

My last piece of the week, not sure where the days are going right now! We're assisted by free access to the excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo report, whilst our free 'races of the day' are scheduled to be...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 2.55 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Newcastle
  • 3.50 Newmarket
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 5.20 Windsor

I don't like having too many runners to sift through from the reports each day, so I do set fairly stringent criteria, but my settings for the Trainer/Jockey Combo report throws up one possible from the 5 yr handicap figures who also runs in one of our free races, so it makes sense to look at the 3.50 Newmarket, which features...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ fillies over a mile and a half on Good to Firm ground. It's worth £6,210 to the winner, who will be one of the following...

We'll look a little more closely at the Appleby/Doyle combo a little later when I do the horse profiles, but we'll run through the card first, where only Carnival Craft is without a recent win and By Starlight, Quenelle D'Or, Sayyida and Franklet all won last time out.

Only Almareekh ran at this level last time out with the other eight all stepping up in class. Quenelle D'Or is having her second try at handicap racing, whilst Sayyida, Franklet & Carnival Craft are all on handicap debut with the latter the only runner here not to have raced in the last seven weeks, having been absent for almost six months now and has also moved yards during her layoff.

The bottom five on the card are all three year olds and get a massive 14lbs allowance from the 4 yrs olds, meaning that bottom weight now carries a huge 22lbs less than top weight, despite the official ratings having them just 8lbs apart.

Almareekh is highest rated at 86 and carries top weight of 10 stones here and she won three times on the spin last July/August, the last being at this class/trip off a mark of 81. She was sixth of seven at a lower grade last time out, looking like she needed the run and at 5lbs higher than her last win, others appeal more, although...

End Result also steps up in class here and this progressive-looking runner won a heavy-ground handicap at Newbury over 1m2f in October. Has ran respectably in two third place finishes this season so far, but that result off this mark in a Class 4 doesn't suggests she wins a Class 3 now.

By Starlight was a winner over this trip just 22 days ago when last seen getting home by 1.25 lengths at Goodwood. Up to classes and 5lbs makes this much more difficult, of course, but she could only beat what was in front of her and she'd something in hand at the close. That said, she'd not be one I'd expect to win this, although...

Lady Pendragon ended her 2020 campaign with back to back Class 5 handicap wins over 1m2f at Lingfield on the A/W before taking a 145-day rest. She then returned at Windsor almost seen weeks ago to run a very creditable third of seven over 1m3½f, but still at Class 5. Up two grades off the same mark makes this tough, considering she was 5 lengths adrift LTO, but in Hayley Turner, she does have a jockey who won't give up...

Quenelle D'Or has raced just five times so far and was the runner-up in each of her 2yo efforts, only beaten by a neck and then by a head. She returned from a 133-day absence to win over 1m3f at Kempton and although last home of seven, beaten by 17 lengths, in a Chester Listed race last month, she still went on to win again next/last time out on handicap debut over this trip at Goodwood 22 days ago, some 3.25 lengths ahead of the re-opposing End Result. She's up 5lbs and up in class, but she looks like a filly on the rise and could go well again here for an in-form partnership...

Sayyida is, of course, the horse featured on my Trainer/Jockey Combo report and that's because the Appleby/Doyle/Newmarket handicaps data was so strong. You've got the overall 5yr record above, but on the July course since the start of the 2017 season, the pair have teamed up 10 times, making the frame on 7 occasions and going on to win five (50% SR, A/E 2.27) times. And of those ten runs, they are...

  • 4/7 on good to firm
  • 3/6 with 3yo runners
  • 2/2 at Class 3
  • 1/1 with females

They've not featured in June or over this trip, but the numbers above are strong and the horse herself now makes a handicap debut at Class 3 after winning a Class 4 novice event quite comfortably at Nottingham six weeks ago. However, despite the third placed horse from that just about scraping home in a Class 5 maiden, the form hasn't really worked out with four others having reappeared at Class4 and none made the frame. That's not to say Sayyida isn't any good, but caution is required with these inexperienced fillies.

Franklet is, as the name gives away, a daughter of the great Frankel and although she never raced as a 2yo, has progressed quickly this year, as her 321 form line would suggest. She's up in class for her handicap debut off a not too onerous mark of 80 after winning over this trip 18 days ago, staying on well and looking like she'd plenty in reserve (wonder where she gets that from?). Everyone knows about the Gosden team's record here at HQ, so I won't bore you with the details, but there are some other interesting stats at play here...

Something Enticing has been kept busy with seven runs under her belt since the start of December and after the novice outings, won her first two starts in handicap company taking her mark from 67 to 77 and she has found life a little tougher since, finishing second and third off 77 and 78 respectively. She ran well enough LTO to be fair and was only beaten by a neck and a head here on this track over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground 8 days ago. Improvement is needed here though, as she's now up in trip/class/weight, but she is running consistently well.

Carnival Craft completes the line-up and she's carrying practically no weight at all (8-6 off a mark of 78). She was a half-length runner-up in a poor novice race at Wolverhampton over this trip, but two classes lower in early January and that was the last time she was seen. Now coming back from 175 days off the track, up in class, on handicap debut and having changed yards, A watching brief or total avoidance is my advice here, but credit given where it's due, jockey Nicola Currie is no mug...

Hopefully that gives you an overview of each runner's career to date, but the form under today's conditions is easiest highlighted by our Instant Expert colour coded chart...

I opened the class parameters to include Class 4 form, as only Almareekh, End Result, Quenelle D'Or and Something Enticing had raced at this level before. All had just the one start and none of them won, although End Result & Quenelle D'Or did make the frame. Based on the above allied to the write-ups, By Starlight and Carnival Craft are ones I'd remove from my list of possibles here.

The Draw Stats...

And for pace...

Leaders do pretty well with an IV of 1.24, but those sitting back off the pace (but not too far off!) have done best with mid-div runners having an IV of 1.81, suggesting they're winning almost twice as often as you'd expect, mainly at the expense of the prominent runners doing too much too soon on this fast strip.

Pace/Draw is obviously the combination of that data above and like Instant Expert gives a really quick overview on how you can win or lose a race by the way it is run...

...and working on the "Green is Good" assumption, the suggestion here is that you can pretty much win from anywhere, but low drawn prominent runners have really struggled, winning just once from 40 attempts! We know the draw for this race already and our behind the scenes work logs the running style of every horse in every race and we can then produce our own version of that heatmap tailored towards this race in draw order, as follows...

Quenelle D'Or is an out and out pacesetter and if applying those tactics here, could well have the run of the race. Jockey Oisin Murphy is an excellent judge of pace and if allowed to dictate, they might be difficult catch. TJ Combo horse Sayyida looks well placed on the heatmap despite the wide draw. Almareekh was closer to the lead for her three wins and she might well revert to that tactic here and By Starlight has also been know to try and kick on.

I suspect they'll not want Quenelle to have all her own way and we could have three going for it early with stalls 2,3 and 9 forming the mid division with 4, 7 & 8 bringing up the rear.

Summary

Each section of my analysis leaves a number of runners with questions to answer and none of these nine have stood out overall. Sayyida was the feature horse, but this is far tougher than her last effort and she's not a gimme on her opening mark. Her last race was a poor one and I'm not sure she'll make the frame here. She's clearly entitled to could easily prove me wrong, but I like Franklet, Quenelle D'Or and Something Enticing more than I like her for this one.

Of the three I'm going with, I'd say Franklet edges it overall. She's progressive, has excellent breeding and looks well treated off 80 for her handicap debut. 7/2 about her is fair, but not generous and I'll have a nibble at that in the hope she can catch and pass Quenelle D'Or, who is currently a 5/1 shot with my third choice trading at 11/2.

Sayyida is the 11/4 fav right now, so there's no E/W ount today, sorry.

 

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