Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 26th November 2021

My Friday's Horses for Courses (H4C) report looks like this...

...and I'm showing you that because this report is free to all readers every Friday, along with these free races...

  • 11.50 Lingfield
  • 12.40 Newbury
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I suppose I really should look at the three H4C runners...

Kentucky Kingdom's record here is all over course and distance with finishes of 2145113 which includes form of...

  • 2136 under today's jockey
  • 4513 at Class 5
  • Highest winning mark of 67, 3rd of 13 (4 lengths) on his last visit off 71 and runs off 70 here

Bayston Hill's 12 Chelmsford runs have also all been over course and distance (inc this race last year) finishing 312311112828, including...

  • 3123122 at Class 5
  • 3111228 under today's jockey
  • Highest win mark 67, 8th of 11 (7.5 lengths) off 71 last visit, now runs off 70

Central City has just seven previous visits finishing 4214613, including...

  • 14613 over course and distance
  • 461 at Class 5 (has won here at Class 4)
  • Highest win here off 74 (twice), 3rd of 9 (1 length) off 77 on last visit and now off 69 with a 7lb claimer who hasn't ridden him here before.

All of the above results are contained in their overall A/W handicap form, which is documented in Instant Expert...

...where Central City looks weakest on standard going, but strongest on Class 5 form (and has a Class 4 success here). Kentucky Kingdom has a poor Class 5 record on the A/W and is closely matched with Bayston Hill on going, track and distance. In fact there's very little between the three of them on distance. Central City is now 5lb lower than his last win and has a 7lb claimer on board, but the other pair are 3lbs above their last win.

They're all drawn in the upper 36% of the draw with Kentucky/Central side by side in 9/10 and Bayston runs second widest of the field out in box 13. The draw stats don't actually show a massive bias here, which isn't a great surprise as 1m2f is a decent enough trip for a horse to overcome whatever draw he/she gets...

I suppose, ideally, you wouldn't want that high sector draw based on the above, but an IV of 0.84 isn't disastrous although it's worse news for Bayston Hill than the other two. He might need to ensure his rce tactics are spot on to get involved and we're advised that...

...hold=up horses struggle, but other than that it's actually better to sit back off the pace, so let's check how our trio have been running of late...

...which says Kentucky Kingdom might struggle from the back of the field and that Central City is probably best positioned of the other two.

Summary

Nice and quick today and based purely on what's above, I'd want these three in the following order...

Central City / Kentucky Kingdom / Bayston Hill

I actually think that all three could get placed with most bookies paying four places and at odds of 16/1, 8/1 and 14/1 (Hills at 4.20pm), I'd not deter you from having a punt on any of them, but I certainly prefer the first two. Central City looks really well weighted here and if his 7lb claimer gets to grips with the task ahead, that 16/1 pricetag might look very generous indeed.

As for one of them winning the race, why not? They've every chance, they know what's ahead of them and I'm sure they'll all go well. Dangers are expected to be the 3/1 fav Vocatus and/or the 8/1 Maysong.

Good Luck!

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