Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 27th December 2021

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a good Christmas, mine was a very quiet affair, thankfully!

One of the biggest time saving tools on Geegeez Gold is the PACE tab on the cards and this feature is completely free for every single race on both Sundays and Mondays to all registered users, irrespective of whether they pay for the GOLD service or not..

We also have a handful of 'races of the day' where every racecard feature is again available for free to ALL registered users. Those races will be...

  • 12.20 Limerick
  • 12.45 Kempton
  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.50 Chepstow
  • 5.40 Wolverhampton

I'm not a big fan of Irish racing and the two UK jumps racing don't appeal (a juvenile hurdle and a 20-runner affair), so we're off to the Black Country for a quick look at the 5.40 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 1m6f on the Tapeta and here are the runners...

Top and bottom weights, Winklevi and Percy Willis seem the most consistent of late, but Beat The Breeze and Kinderfrau did both win last time out. Winklevi also benefits from a drop in class here, as does Crimson King, Kitten's Dream and Rushmore.

Crimson King & Dreaming Blue have both won here in the past, whilst Scudamore & Heron have both scored over 1m6f before today. Beat The Breeze and Glan Y Gors have done both by winning over course and distance.

Aside from Glan Y Gors (85 days), Scudamore (134d) and Heron (306d), the rest of the field have all had a recent (within 32 days) run with four of them having raced in the last ten days.

Kinderfrau, Rushmore and Heron are all aged three and get a 5lb weight for age allowance here, which will help their causes and the latter heads the Geegeez SR figures, but he has been off the track for ten months.

On a simple totting up procedure of positives from above, the ones currently in mind would be (alphabetically) Beat The Breeze, Crimson King, Kinderfrau, Rushmore & Winklevi, whilst past relevant form (courtesy of Instant Expert)...

...would appear to favour the likes of Beat The Breeze, Crimson King, Dreaming Blue, Glan Y Gors, Kinderfrau and Scudamore. Our next thing to consider is the draw and past similar races...

...have tended to favour those drawn midway (stall 6) of higher, which could give an advantage to the likes of Crimson King, Glan Y Gors, Kinderfrau, Rushmore, Scudamore & Winklevi, whilst the corresponding pace stats for the same races are as follows...

...showing a clear bias for prominent runners and a distinct disadvantage for those liking to set the pace and if we look at our field's recent efforts...'d probably say that Beat The Breeze, Dreaming Blue, Heron, Scudamore & Winklevi would the ones most likely to score a 3 here.

We can, of course combine those pace and draw stats as follows...

...and we can log pace/draw for our eleven runners...

and when superimposed onto the main pace/draw heat map...

...none of them are really ideally suited, but you'd probably say Scudamore (based of an average of 20.00 & 7.69) shades it here, then possibly Dreaming Blue, Heron and even Beat The Breeze.



I've attempted to show how quickly you can whizz through a card to get a shortlist of runners based on positive showings and the ones I highlighted were...

Racecard : Beat The Breeze, Crimson King, Kinderfrau, Rushmore & Winklevi
Instant Expert : Beat The Breeze, Crimson King, Dreaming Blue, Glan Y Gors, Kinderfrau & Scudamore
Draw : Crimson King, Glan Y Gors, Kinderfrau, Rushmore, Scudamore & Winklevi
Pace : Beat The Breeze, Dreaming Blue, Heron, Scudamore & Winklevi
Pace/Draw : Beat the Breeze, Dreaming Blue, Heron & Scudamore

If I then do a quick totting up, I see that Beat the Breeze has four mentions, as does Scudamore, whilst Crimson King, Dreaming Blue, Kinderfrau and Winklevi all have three and it's from these six that I'd want to draw my 1-2-3, where I'm finding it difficult to get away from Beat The Breeze.

I think Scudamore is going to run this afternoon at 5.20, as he hadn't been withdrawn by 3.30pm, so I'm going to set him aside. Dreaming Blue is a lightly raced sort from a yard best known for its jumpers, he was well beaten here LTO (admittedly after a year off!) but I can only advise a watching brief there. And the other I'm going to discard is Crimson King. I'm almost reluctant to do so with him having made the frame in 11 of 22 on the A/W, but I think Kinderfrau has a good chance of challenging Beat The Breeze for the win and that I have a marginal preference for the consistent Winklevi ahead of Crimson King.

So, my 1-2-3 are...

  • Beat The Breeze, who has won two of his last five, starting with a C&D win here in May and then stayed on well to win over this trip at Southwell earlier this month.
  • Kinderfrau, who took advantage of a dropping handicap mark to win over a similar trip to today when last seen at Chelmsford just over a month ago. back up 6lbs here, though, which might just stop him winning.
  • Winklevi, who has six top three finishes on the bounce and was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out. He's down in class now and should at least make the frame off the same mark.

Sadly, I've not spotted much that the bookies haven't and my trio are best priced at 9/2, 10/3 & 7/1, whilst Scudamore would be an interesting 18/1 E/W bet if he runs here after either not running or running reasonably well on Boxing Day. A poor run would discount him from my thoughts.

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