Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 27th November 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo stats report (TJC) brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

We make this TJC report free to all readers every Saturday , alongside the following free races of the day...

  • 1.15 Newbury
  • 1.22 Bangor
  • 2.46 Fairyhouse
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.42 Bangor
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

For today's piece, I'm turning to the TJC report for a look at a combo that has done well over the past year...

...and the Alistair Ralph/Nick Scholfield partnership have two runners at Bangor tomorrow.

Butler's Brief is a 6yr old gelding who runs in a 7-runner, Class 3, chase over 2m4½f on Good to Soft ground, whilst Llantara is a 10yr old mare in a 9-runner, Class 4, chase over 2m1½f. The trainer/jockey combo have a total of 7 wins and 7 further places from 25 races this year and they include...

  • 1 win, 3 places from 7 here at Bangor
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 18 in handicaps (as per the report)
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 7 in hcp chases
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on good to soft ground

    Re : Butler's Brief, the pair are...

  • 1 place from 2 Class 3 runs
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 21 with male runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 with 6 yr olds

    As for Llantara, they are...

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 at Class 4
  • 3 places from 4 with females
  • no runs with 10 yr olds

Butler's Brief steps down in class after a poor run in a 3m½f, Class 2 hurdle at Cheltenham five weeks ago, but probably needed the run after a five month break from action. Prior to that break, he won three times on the spin, all under Nick Scholfield's steering and he now tackles fences for the first time and runs off the same mark as when pulled up LTO. He's pretty inexperienced under today's conditions with just two good to soft runs, but he is 1 from 1 here at Bangor, having finished 9 lengths clear of the field in the third of those wins above.

He likes to race prominently and that would appear to be a good tactic here, although he's only 4th of 7 on average pace scores. That said, both yard and rider have good records here at Bangor and  they'll know what tactics would work best here.

*

Llantara obviously shares the same stats as her stablemate above, but she's on a 9-race losing run, having last tasted success at Hexham in mid-March 2019, so it has been a while between drinks. In fairness to her, aside from a poor run LTO some 238 days ago, she had made the frame in five of her six starts since the start of 2020, suggesting there might still be some life in the old girl yet.

She may well need the run after 8 months off, but is assisted by dropping down two classes and a couple of pounds so that she's now 6lbs lower than her last win, which was over hurdles as she now tackles fences for only the second time. She has tended to be held-up when racing over hurdles, but those tactics probably won't be the rights ones here and she'll either stick with the old approach and struggle, or she'll be asked to get more involved earlier and I suspect the latter will apply as the team certainly know what it takes to win here.

Summary

The Ralph/Scholfield combo run two chasers here at Bangor and both have the ability to get in the mix, if they can overcome their lack of experience over fences. I do like Butler's Brief and I think he could go well here on chase debut. He's attractively priced at 8/1 but I think the likes of the 11/2 Mint Condition or the 4/1 Champagnesuperover might fare a little better than him. From an E/W perspective, there are sadly just two places being paid, but at 8's, I'll possibly still have a small punt.

Llantara, on the other hand, looks up against it, despite dropping two classes, especially if dwells at the back of the field. She ahs been off the track for a long time and I think I'd have preferred her to have had a more recent run. She's no mug and places consistently, but it'll be a watching brief for me here, even if she is a tempting 12/1. The 7/2 Boagrius is probably the one to beat, whilst his 16/1 stablemate Baby King might well outrun those odds for a place.

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