Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 27th October 2021

Our free feature every Wednesday is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report. This is, in fact, four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five years, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

In addition to a daily free feature, we always have a selection of free races too and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 3.15 Fakenham
  • 3.30 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Dundalk

And here's how my Trainer Stats report looks for Wednesday...

...where the presence of Vision Clear basically says I should be covering the second of our free races, the 3.15 Fakenham. This is a 7-runner (was 8), Class 4, 3yo+, 2m3yds (plus 158yds, so effectively 2m0.75f) Handicap Hurdle on good ground and here's the card...

Vocal Duke looks the pick on form, being the only LTO winner and indeed the only one with a recent win, but he's up a class here, whilst featured horse Vision Clear is up two classes, but the pair of them have won at similar trips to this, as has Glimpse of Gold who has done it here at Fakenham. Grouseman, Ottavio and Vision Clear are positives on the trainer form, whilst Glimpse of Gold, Grouseman, Vocal Duke and Vision Clear are the ones with jockeys to watch. Our Geegeez Sr figures suggest a tight contest with Ottavio, Dionysis and Glimpse of Gold leading the way.

As for past performances in similar conditions, place form...

...would seem to tell us more than win form...

...and the experienced Glimpse of Gold looks the one to beat on those numbers with Vocal Duke/Ottavio the best of the rest.

The pace stats for similar contests would suggest that the further forward you race, the more chance you have of winning...

...and with this bunch running as follows of late...

...you'd have to favour the first three on the list, Dionysis, Glimpse of Gold and Ottavio.

Summary

Vocal Duke is the form horse and is unexposed over hurdles, but only won a Class 5 by a neck last time out and is now up in class and up 4lbs and whilst that might not stop him, I canb't be backing him at 15/8. There's a definite danger that this decision might bite me on the backside, but that's racing for you.

So, I'm really looking at Glimpse of Gold,  Ottavio and possibly Dionysis as the ones I might want to back here. Sadly the non-runner means just two places for conventional E/W betting, but the exchanges will still offer 3, I'd guess. So let's have a look at the three I've got left...

  • Dionysis is still a maiden after 8 cracks at hurdling, but ran well for much of his last run at Market Rasen, even if he was left to fend for himself for most of the race. He was soon clear, but idled/got lonely up front and was caught 2 out. He weakened on the run-in and slipped from 2nd to 4th, but the drop back in trip here shuld help him see the race out. Likely to have more company here too and could run a decent race at a big price.
  • Glimpse of Gold, at 10 yrs of age, is the seasoned campaigner here. He was only beaten by half a length at Worcester off a mark of 106 a month ago, before looking well set for another top 2 finish at Huntingdon off 110 a fortnight ago. Sadly he tried to run out and when his jockey attempted to correct him, he slipped/jinked and unseated the rider. He has already won over course and distance this year and could be a big player today.
  • Ottavio stayed 1m4f on the Flat in France, winning at that trip on soft ground and has turned in three successive solid runs over hurdles here in the UK. He went down by less than six lengths LTO on handicap debut and has been eased a couple of pounds to make this a bit easier, definite place chances I'd have thought.

Of those three, I have to say that I like the old-timer Glimpse of Gold best and at 9/2, he's worth a couple of quid of my money. Ottavio should run a good race, but offers little value in my eyes at 7/2, but Dionysis looks massive at 16/1. An unlikely winner, granted, but at those odds, he's surely worth a couple of shillings as an E/W poke or a place only exchange bet?

As for the other horse, Nadein, from my Trainer Stats report ... I think he's more chance of finishing last than first in the 7.15 Kempton. I'd not be anting to back him anyway. It's a very competitive race, but I think the market has it right and I expect a battle between the 9/4 fav Candleford and the 7/2 Bandinelli for this one.

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