Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 28th August 2021

It's Bank Holiday Weekend and Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users.

Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This TJC report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

In addition to that report, we also offer the following free races...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 3.55 Newmarket
  • 5.05 Newmarket
  • 5.40 Redcar
  • 6.10 Redcar
  • 6.45 Redcar

The first of those races is the best of the bunch as a Group 3 contest, but it only has 5 runners and a likely odds on favourite, so next best is the first of the two from HQ, the 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, Flat handicap for 3yo+ horses over 1m6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground and these are the contenders for the £20,616 prize...

FORM : Live Your Dream and Dancing Harry bring the best recent results to the table and both seek a hat-trick here. Lucky Deal look most likely to struggle despite making the frame LTO.

CLASS : Lucky Deal, Speedo Boy and Dancing Harry all step up in class from Class 3 LTO

COURSE / DISTANCE : Speedo Boy and Byron Flyer have yet to win either at Newmarket or over this 1m6f trip. The other five have all won at this distance, with three of them (Live Your Dream, Hochfeld and Dancing Harry doing it here at this venue.

LAST SEEN : All have been seen in the last seven weeks and Hochfeld (10 days) aside, all have had at least a fortnight's rest.

Live Your Dream has never been out of the first three home in seven starts and has won four of his last five at Classes 2, 3, 4 and 5, culminating in a course and distance success here at this grade last time out. He won by three quarters of a length that day and a 7lb rise in weight makes this tougher.

Hochfeld has certainly been busy this season with this being his 13th start. Sadly he has only won one of twelve this season and just two of his last thirty-six. He did run a good 4th of 14 at York last time out, but still carries too much weight for my liking. Perhaps his jockey's 7lb claim will help?

Lucky Deal is better on the A/W (5/13) than he is on turf (3/22) and although he was third here over course an distance last time out, that only tells half the story. He was actually 3rd of 4, behind the re-opposing Dancing Harry by 8 lengths in a lower grade. A 2lb drop in weight probably doesn't help him enough here in his bid to win on turf for the first time in just over 27 months.

Speedo Boy has won on turf, A/W and over hurdles and comes here in good nick (2212) albeit in lower grades. In those four runs, he beaten by a neck twice at Goodwood (C3, 1m6f) and Chester (C4, 2m) before landing a Class 3, 2-miler at Ascot. He was then beaten by just a nose conceding 16lbs to winner Byron Hill (C3, 2m) at Nottingham next/last time out. Stamina won't be his undoing, but up in class and weight to a mark of 92 leaves him little room for error.

Byron Flyer is, at the age of 10, the old-timer in this field. He comes here on a 14-race losing streak since winning over fences (2/2 in chases) at Ludlow in early October 2019 and his record on the Flat is 12 defeats since a win in early October 2018 when he completed a Class 2 hat-trick off marks of 95, 98 and 102. He's a stayer, for sure and now off 89, he'd have to have a chance here, if only he wasn't 10 and in such poor form.

Dancing Harry was 1 from 13 six weeks ago, but has won his last two both over this trip off marks of 78 and 80, the latter being a 5 length success here over course and distance. Those wins will make him popular here, but excitement should be tempered by a 5lb rise in weight allied to a step up to Class 2, where he is 0/3.

Indigo Times has won four of his seven starts this year, but his form on turf reads last of eight, 4th of 8, last of six and 8th of 10. He's vvery good on the A/W with 6 wins, 2 places from 13 runs and he's probably better remaining there.

Win & Place form relative to the task in hand is available via the Instant Expert tab...

..where Hochfeld  and Dancing Harry would appear to be best suited to take the favourite on.

As with most longer Flat races, there's not a massive draw bias to be had here...

...and the main takeaway from the pace stats are that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses

and when we combine pace and draw, we get...

However, I'd not take the Mid-Div/High 100% strike rate too seriously, as it's based on just one runner, as is the Mid-Div/Low at 0%. The other two 0% combos are real, though : Mid/led are 0 from 5 and Low Hold Ups are 0 from 9. We know where our seven are drawn and we know how they've ran recently so we can put them on that heatmap, as follows...

It looks like there could well be a frantic start here with Dancing Harry, Speedo Boy and Hochfeld all liking to get on with things. The favourite's tactics are usually to wait and then pick off the tired front runners and that could happen if the front three burn each other out. That said, they might just build an unassailable lead and turn it into a three-horse race.

Summary

Despite the pace/draw heatmap above, this really should be down to the fav Live Your Dream to win/lose. I fear a frenetic pace will rule many of these out by giving them too much ground to make up and if the fav doesn't win, then one of the three pace options should step up. Of those, I think Dancing Harry might tire under added weight and his record at this level isn't good, so he's not for me.

As for Speedo Boy/Hochfeld, I don't have much between them on my figures and it might well come down to who gets the best ride from their jockey. Hochfeld's jockey is a 7lb claimer with a sub-10% strike rate in the last two months, whilst William Buick (Speedo Boy0 has won 26 of his last 100 rides on this track alone, so Speedo's Boy gets the nod.

Speedo is a reasonable 4/1 right now and that might drift a little if more money comes for the 6/4 fav. I can't back the fav at 6/4, because I don't think it's that clearcut, even if he is the best here. I will, however, have a little nibble at Speedo's 4/1

 

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